Spatiotemporal Forecasting

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39 papers in the last four weeks, up 290% on the four weeks before. 0.4% of all new papers.

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Just Weather Scoring: Efficient End-to-end Nowcasting with Distributional Diffusion
Oct 8, 2026Jannik Wiese, Johannes Schusterbauer, Tommaso Martorella +1Precipitation Nowcasting Probabilistic Forecasting
Revisiting Identity and Spectra Dispersion in Media-Bridged Time Series Forecasting: Linking Multivariate Signals and Narrative Flows
Oct 8, 2026Jierui Lei, Wenjian Zhang, Qingyi Yang +5Time Series Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting
School of Advanced Interdisciplinary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China · State Key Laboratory of Multimodal Artificial Intelligence Systems, Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China · School of Intelligent Systems Engineering, Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, Guangdong 518107, China +3
TAM: Task-Aware Memory Distillation for Efficient Spatiotemporal Prediction
Oct 8, 2026Yuqi Li, Xiaoqin Feng, Fan Xu +4Spatiotemporal Forecasting Knowledge Distillation
CUNY City College of NY · Wyze Labs, Inc. · University of Science and Technology of China +2
MESSENGER: Memory-Enhanced Sequential Scene Flow Estimation via Autoregressive Next-Frame Forecasting
Oct 7, 2026Jiuming Liu, Jianing Li, Mengmeng Liu +3Spatiotemporal Forecasting
University of Cambridge · Shanghai Jiao Tong University · University of Twente +1
WxFM-XL: Adapting Univariate Foundation Models to Multi-Station Weather Forecasting
Oct 7, 2026Xiao Wang, Changjian Chen, Zhuo Tang +3Weather Forecasting Multivariate Time Series Forecasting
Prediction-powered inference for time series across space
Oct 6, 2026Shahzar Rizvi, David Burt, Vishwak Srinivasan +3Spatiotemporal Forecasting Prediction-Powered Inference
MIT LIDS · UMass Amherst · Stanford University +1
Towards Explainable Benchmarking for Data-driven Post-Wildfire Debris Flow Prediction
Oct 5, 2026Zhisheng Qi, Li Zhu, Utkarsh Sahu +3Perturbation-Based Feature Attribution Forecasting Benchmarks
University of Georgia Athens, Georgia, USA · University of Oregon Eugene, Oregon, USA
Can LLM-assisted regularization increase forecast accuracy for migration flows in low data regimes?
Oct 5, 2026Nathaniel T. Hindman, Fabricio MuraiTime Series Forecasting LLM-Based Time Series Forecasting
Artificial Intelligence Worcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester, Massachusetts · Data Science Worcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester, Massachusetts
WaveGSSM: Graph Wave State Space Models for Propagating Spatio-Temporal Patterns
Oct 5, 2026Junyou Zhu, Fenying Cai, Ping Xiong +5Spatiotemporal Forecasting State Space Models
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany · Machine Learning Group, Technical University of Berlin, Germany · Department of Computer Science, University of Illinois at Chicago, USA +2
Skillful Data-Driven Subseasonal Soil Moisture Forecasting: Prospects and Limits for Flash Drought Prediction
Oct 5, 2026Noelia Otero, Atahan Özer, Miguel-Ángel Fernández-Torres +1Spatiotemporal Forecasting Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting
Applied Machine Learning Group, Fraunhofer Institute for Telecommunications, Heinrich Hertz Institute, Berlin, Germany · Department of Signal Theory and Communications, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid (UC3M), Madrid, Spain
Planetary Geospatial Foundation Models: A New Paradigm for Global Public Health
Oct 5, 2026Arbaaz Muslim, Aviv Slobodkin, Katherine Wheeler-Martin +35Epidemic Forecasting Geospatial Foundation Models
Google, Mountain View, CA, USA · Department of Population Health, NYU Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY, USA · Center for Child Health Services Research, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA +14
Physics-Refined Spatiotemporal Forecasting on Open-Boundary Hydrologic Graphs
Oct 1, 2026Haoyang Jiang, Zhengui Wang, Shenghan Gao +3Spatiotemporal Forecasting Physics-Informed GNNs
William & Mary, Williamsburg, VA, USA · Virginia Institute of Marine Science, William & Mary, Gloucester Point, VA, USA · Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton, FL, USA
FORTE: Forecasting Occupancy for Spatiotemporal Risk-Aware Planning in Dynamic Environments
Sep 30, 2026Hahjin Lee, Young J. KimRobot Navigation Safe Motion Planning
Department of Computer Science and Engineering at Ewha Womans University in Korea
STCFormer: Adaptive Spatio-Temporal Modeling with Dynamic Cluster Transformer for Station-based Weather Forecasting
Sep 30, 2026Rongwen Li, Haixin Xie, Mingyang Wang +5Multivariate Time Series Forecasting Clustering
Hunan University · China Meteorological Administration · Hunan Provincial Meteorological Bureau
M $^2$ Weather: A Benchmark for Joint Multi-Station and Multi-Variable Weather Forecasting
Sep 30, 2026Rongwen Li, Xiao Wang, Mingyang Wang +4Multivariate Time Series Forecasting Forecasting Benchmarks
Hunan University · China Meteorological Administration
C-STRIDE: An Observation-Driven AI Digital Twin for Predicting Basin-Wide Flood Fields from Sparse Stream-Gauge Histories
Sep 30, 2026Yanjie Tong, Phillip Si, Yuan Qiu +1Surrogate Modeling Flood Inundation Mapping
School of Computational Science and Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, 756 West Peachtree Street Northwest, Atlanta, 30308, GA, USA
PrecipJEPA: JEPA-Regularized Future-State Prediction with Motion-Source Rendering for Precipitation Nowcasting
Sep 30, 2026Yufeng Zhu, Dan Niu, Qiliang Wu +4Precipitation Forecasting Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture
Department of Automation, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China
FlapKAD: A Simulation Dataset of Coupled Wing Kinematics and Aerodynamic Dynamics for Flapping-Wing Aerial Vehicles
Sep 30, 2026Haichuan LiAerial Robotics Vehicle Dynamics
University of Turku
An Input-Frugal Deep Learning Framework for Weather-Driven National Crop-Yield Forecasting: A Case Study of Brazilian Soybean
Sep 29, 2026Fernando Dupin da Cunha Mello, Prashant Kumar, Erick G. Sperandio NascimentoMultivariate Time Series Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting
Stricto Sensu Department, SENAI CIMATEC University, Salvador, Bahia, Brazil · Global Centre for Clean Air Research · Institute for Sustainability, University of Surrey, Guildford, GU2 7XH, United Kingdom +1
GRFBrain: Graph-Structured Rectified Flows for EEG Dynamic Modeling
Sep 29, 2026Haohui Jia, Zheng Chen, Jathurshan Pradeepkumar +4Electroencephalography Functional Connectivity
Faculty of Information Science and Technology, Hokkaido University, Japan · SANKEN, The University of Osaka, Japan · Department of Computer Science, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, USA +1
NowcastDiT: Diffusion Transformers are Effective Precipitation Nowcasters
Sep 29, 2026Haoran Xu, Xingzhuo Guo, Yuchen Zhang +3Precipitation Forecasting Diffusion Transformer
School of Software, BNRist, Tsinghua University, China
PyroStack: A Multi-Band Spatio-Temporal Sub-Daily Dataset for Wildfires in the United States
Sep 28, 2026Arya Kondur, Giosue Migliorini, Cameron Schmitt +14Wildfire Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting
Department of Computer Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA · Department of Statistics, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA · Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA +6
AdaST: Adaptive Coupling for Spatial-Temporal Forecasting
Sep 28, 2026Zhenyu Lei, Chenghao Liu, Yushun Dong +2Adaptive Model Routing Spatiotemporal Forecasting
University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA, USA · Datadog Paris, France · Florida State University Tallahassee, FL, USA +1
Graph-Based Learning for Multi-Horizon Martian Atmospheric Forecasting
Sep 28, 2026Gary Myler, James Holmes, Manish Patel +1Spatiotemporal Forecasting Weather Forecasting
The Open University, UK.
Addressing Spatial Indistinguishability in Spatiotemporal Prediction via Optimal Transport-Guided Masking
Sep 28, 2026Guangyu Wang, Jiawei TongSelf-Supervised Time Series Representation Learning Spatiotemporal Forecasting
Data Science and Artificial Intelligence, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian, Liaoning, China · Institute of Systems, Molecular & Integrative Biology, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom
SurgGMF: Fully Causal Gaussian Motion Forecasting for Anticipatory Surgical Scene Rendering
Sep 28, 2026Jingqian Sun, Yichao Tang3D Gaussian Splatting Neural Rendering
Shanghai Research Institute for Intelligent Autonomous Systems, Tongji University, Shanghai, China · School of Mechanical Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai, China · Shanghai Innovation Institute, Shanghai, China
Evaluating Dynamical Fidelity through Predictive Structure in Physical Representations
Sep 28, 2026Oskar Bohn Lassen, Joao Paulo de Souza Boger, Simon Driscoll +4Spatiotemporal Forecasting Weather Forecasting
Department of Technology, Management, and Economics Technical University of Denmark · Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics University of Cambridge · Department of Mathematics and Statistics University of Exeter
LTV-CTDNet: Compositional Turning Decomposition for Short-Term Turning-Movement Forecasting
Sep 27, 2026Md Atiqur Rahman Mallick, Kamrul Hasan, Robert T. WhiteTime Series Forecasting Traffic Flow Estimation
Graduate Student, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering Tennessee State University, Nashville, TN, 37209 · Assistant Professor, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering Tennessee State University, Nashville, TN, 37209 · TSMO Manager Nashville Department of Transportation & Multimodal Infrastructure Nashville, TN 37210
Diffusion-Based Rollouts as a Stabilization Mechanism for Long-Horizon Environmental Forecasting
Sep 27, 2026Marina Vicens-Miquel, Amy McGovern, Aaron J. Hill +2Precipitation Forecasting Long-Term Time Series Forecasting
University of Oklahoma, School of Meteorology, Norman, Oklahoma · University of Oklahoma, School of Computer Science, Norman, Oklahoma · NSF AI Institute for Research on Trustworthy AI in Weather, Climate, and Coastal Oceanography, Norman, Oklahoma +2
Just for FUNS: LLM-Guided Spatio-Temporal Graph Node Generation for Forecasting Unobserved Node States
Sep 24, 2026Shuhao Li, Weidong Yang, Changan Liu +4Spatiotemporal Forecasting Conditional Generative Modeling
Fudan University Shanghai, China · Fudan University Shanghai, China Zhuhai Fudan Innovation Research Institute Zhuhai, China · College of Computing and Data Science Nanyang Technological University Singapore +2

Oct 8, 2026, cs.LGJ/K move · Enter open · S save

Just Weather Scoring: Efficient End-to-end Nowcasting with Distributional Diffusion

Jannik Wiese, Johannes Schusterbauer, Tommaso Martorella, Björn Ommer

Precipitation Nowcasting Probabilistic Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting Diffusion Models Diffusion Model Inference Acceleration Masked Diffusion Models

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Generative diffusion models are well-suited for probabilistic precipitation nowcasting, but existing approaches often rely on separately trained compression or deterministic forecasting components and remain costly at inference due to iterative denoising. We introduce Just Weather Scoring (JWS), a single-stage, end-to-end diffusion model which addresses both issues by forecasting directly in radar space and enabling few-step generation. Radar-space modeling greatly simplifies training and inference and eliminates uncertainty arising from lossy compression. JWS combines Masked Asynchronous Diffusion, a timestep-sampling scheme that preserves clean context while adapting diffusion training to high-dimensional spatio-temporal data, with a simple scoring-rule objective that aligns training with probabilistic forecasting and unlocks few-step generation. On the SEVIR and MeteoNet benchmarks, JWS achieves state-of-the-art probabilistic forecasting performance at reduced training and inference cost. Even our smallest model remains competitive using substantially fewer parameters and more than 17x faster inference.

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