From Weighting to Modeling: A Nonparametric Estimator for Off-Policy Evaluation

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) for contextual bandit policies becomes challenging when action-level importance weighting incurs excessive variance. Doubly robust (DR) estimation remains unbiased under common support but retains these high-variance action-level weights. A prior estimator, Off-policy evaluation with Conjunct Effect Model (OffCEM), replaces them with more stable cluster-level weights, at the cost of relying on local correctness of the reward model. In this paper, we show that, under the assumptions required by DR and OffCEM, there exists an unbiased family of estimators that interpolates between OffCEM and DR. Building on this result, we propose the Variance Optimal-CEM (VOCEM) estimator, which selects the interpolation coefficient to minimize variance. We derive the population-optimal coefficient in closed form and show that the resulting estimator has variance no larger than either endpoint, OffCEM or DR. Experiments in controlled synthetic settings and on two large-action benchmarks show that VOCEM improves upon both endpoints in all 23 evaluated conditions, exhibiting greater stability and empirical robustness.

This article presents a novel estimator for performing off-policy evaluation using only offline data for contextual bandits. The proposed estimator, Kernel-WIS is demonstrated to be asymptotically consistent and to empirically outperform strong baselines (including vanilla weighted importance sampling), particularly under complex conditions including behaviour policy miss-specification. The benefit of Kernel-WIS is derived from combining the bounded property of vanilla weighted importance sampling with the linearity of vanilla importance sampling.

Deep off-policy reinforcement learning algorithms for continuous control typically rely on neural value function approximation to guide policy improvement. However, temporal-difference (TD) learning introduces noisy targets, resulting in non-stationary optimization, while greedy policy updates amplify early-stage estimation errors. The recursive propagation of such errors leads to persistent overestimation bias and degraded training stability in actor-critic methods. Existing approaches attempt to alleviate this issue via prioritized sampling or modified value learning objectives, but often overemphasize high-uncertainty transitions caused by limited data coverage or bootstrapping errors, thereby further amplifying bias.In this paper, we propose Collaborative Weighting Actor-Critic (CWAC), a unified framework that explicitly accounts for predictive uncertainty in value estimation. CWAC employs distributional critic to model return uncertainty and introduces a collaborative weighting mechanism that jointly reweights TD-errors and uncertainty, enabling robust learning from reliable samples while suppressing noisy updates. In addition, we incorporate a stochastic pessimistic value estimation scheme via sampling from the return distribution, which effectively mitigates error propagation during policy improvement. CWAC can be seamlessly integrated into existing off-policy algorithm frameworks such as SAC, TD3, and DDPG with minimal overhead. Empirical results demonstrate that our proposed method significantly enhances performance across a diverse range of simulated tasks. Our code is publicly available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/CWAC-348E.