Organizations: School of Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA · Faculty of Science and Engineering, Hosei University, Tokyo, Japan · Erdos Inc., Kanagawa, Japan; The University of Electro-Communications, Tokyo, Japan
We study the problem of estimating multiple discrete unimodal distributions, motivated by search behavior analysis on a real-world platform. To incorporate prior knowledge of precedence relations among distributions, we impose stochastic order constraints and formulate the estimation task as a mixed-integer convex quadratic optimization problem. Experiments on both synthetic and real datasets show that the proposed method reduces the Jensen-Shannon divergence by 2.2% on average (up to 6.3%) when the sample size is small, while performing comparably to existing methods when sufficient data are available.
Figures & tables
Figure 1. Three search timing distributions for keywords containing body weight on Mamari
Figure 2. Change in the estimation error (JSD) with respect to sample size using synthetic data
Figure 3. Visual comparison of estimated distributions with varying sample sizes
Data set
EMP
GAUSSIAN
KERNEL
UNIMODAL
OURS
10 records
0.1425
0.0932
0.0983
0.0888
0.0869
20 records
0.0859
0.1043
0.0568
0.0571
0.0561
30 records
0.0656
0.1147
0.0450
0.0453
0.0446
40 records
0.0552
0.1218
0.0375
0.0391
0.0386
50 records
0.0487
0.1379
0.0354
0.0350
0.0348
60 records
0.0442
0.1261
0.0310
0.0323
0.0322
Table 1. Average estimation error (JSD) for each model with varying record sizes
Instance
EMP
KERNEL
UNIMODAL
OURS
(F1)
diarrhea
0.238
0.157
0.115
0.113
body_weight
0.251
0.171
0.131
0.130
constipation
0.209
0.128
0.097
0.095
abdominal_pain
0.205
0.135
0.111
0.109
anemia
0.213
0.139
0.109
0.108
(F2)
toddler_defiance
0.122
0.089
0.090
0.087
Table 2. Estimation error by each model for the 10-record dataset
Instance
EMP
KERNEL
UNIMODAL
OURS
(F1)
diarrhea
0.068
0.041
0.037
0.041
body_weight
0.075
0.061
0.060
0.061
constipation
0.044
0.033
0.030
0.030
abdominal_pain
0.058
0.037
0.037
0.038
anemia
0.051
0.037
0.036
0.036
(F2)
toddler_defiance
0.039
0.030
0.032
0.031
Table 3. Estimation error by each model for the 80-record data set
Figure 4. Estimated distributions for two instances
We revisit the classical problem of estimating an unknown distribution from its samples by fitting a mixture model that minimizes cross-entropy loss. Framing the task as a stochastic convex optimization problem over the space of M-component mixture distributions, we propose a family of estimators derived from the stochastic mirror descent (SMD) algorithm. This optimization-based approach provides a principled and flexible framework that generalizes traditional estimators and proposes a variety of novel estimators through the choice of Bregman divergences. A key advantage of our method is that it scales efficiently with the number of candidate components fi; that is, one can employ a large set of basis distributions in the mixture model without incurring significant computational overhead. This enables richer approximations and improved estimation accuracy. Moreover, in the case of categorical distribution (discrete outcomes) our estimators do not require a strict lower bound, in other words our framework does not require the precise knowledge of the support of the distribution. We demonstrate that, under mild conditions, the proposed φ-SMD estimators achieve near-optimal convergence rates in both Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence and ℓ2-norm and offer practical benefits when computation is expensive. Our numerical analysis highlights improved performance guaranties over classical estimators, particularly in terms of sample efficiency and scalability.
Discrete probability laws underpin statistical modeling, yet the catalog of interpretable distributions has expanded only gradually through centuries of case-by-case mathematical derivations. We introduce symbolic density estimation (SDE), an unsupervised framework that automatically recovers closed-form probability mass functions by composing elementary analytic operations within a structured search space. Our method integrates domain-specific structural priors with evolutionary search and a validity-aware inference stage, and it extends to richer distribution families such as zero inflation and finite mixtures. To support systematic evaluation and future research, we contribute a benchmark dataset spanning a broad collection of commonly used discrete distributions. The proposed algorithm recovers all benchmark families with accurate parameter estimates. A real data application shows that it identifies concise and interpretable mixture models that improve goodness-of-fit over standard models.
We study parameter estimation when each sample from a continuous parametric distribution is accompanied by a binary quality label governed by the same unknown parameter. By imposing hard feasibility constraints, deterministic labels can accelerate estimation from the classical n−1/2 rate of smooth quality-aware M-estimators to n−1. Combining PAC guarantees with local error-to-parameter conversions, we establish this rate for both identifiable and finitely ambiguous quality classifiers, with likelihood information resolving the latter ambiguity. When the quality model is known only up to an additive constant, we construct threshold-free pairwise preferences from oppositely labeled samples and retain the accelerated rate despite the unknown threshold. We further show that pointwise qualities and pairwise preferences are incomparable: either can be strictly more informative than the other. Our assumptions hold for Gaussian, Laplace, and exponential families under thresholded log-likelihood rewards. Finally, a minimax lower bound establishes the optimal n−1 dependence on sample size, up to logarithmic and dimension-dependent factors, while experiments confirm the benefits of constraint-based estimation.