Proof-Carrying Materials: Falsifiable Safety Certificates for Machine-Learned Interatomic Potentials

Automated materials discovery requires evaluating large pools of candidate configurations, with density functional theory (DFT) as a major throughput bottleneck. Pretrained machine-learned interatomic potentials (MLIPs) approximate DFT cheaply, but their errors vary by orders of magnitude across configurations, making it difficult to decide when to trust the MLIP predictions and when to fall back to DFT. We frame this decision as a risk-controlled selection problem and solve it within a conformal risk control (CRC) framework. Each configuration is mapped from atomic numbers and Cartesian coordinates to a fixed geometric descriptor, which a lightweight predictor uses to estimate an MLIP-DFT disagreement score in energy, average force, and maximum force. CRC then calibrates this score into a selection threshold for DFT labeling such that the MLIP error on the unselected configurations, which keep their MLIP labels, stays below a user-chosen fraction $α$ of the expected error. Under an identical guarantee across eight dataset-MLIP pairs, our predictor routes 7% and 14% fewer configurations to DFT at $α=0.3$ than committee baselines. Because committee disagreement overlooks errors the MLIPs share, our gains are largest when the DFT labels and MLIP training data differ in DFT functional and basis set, and narrow when the two agree. Without model access, the structure-only predictor also ranks errors as well as the target MLIP's latent representation and outperforms widely used descriptors such as Smooth Overlap of Atomic Positions (SOAP) and Atom-Centered Symmetry Functions (ACSF).

Universal machine-learning interatomic potentials (u-MLIPs) aim to generalize across diverse configurations. Benchmarks enable reproducible evaluation but may not expose failures outside their predefined scope. Here, we show that physics-informed search can complement benchmark-based evaluation by uncovering hidden failure modes. We introduce MLIP Detective, an agentic framework for active failure mode discovery. Starting from benchmark evidence, MLIP Detective generates falsifiable, physics-informed failure hypotheses, screens them with inexpensive simulations, and escalates only the most suspicious cases to human experts together with proposed verification protocols. Without issue-specific prompting, MLIP Detective identified and characterized a systematic anomaly in MACE-MPA-0: the model predicted some relaxed adsorbate-surface systems involving O- or F-containing adsorbates to be higher in energy than their corresponding separated fragments. Using cross-model comparisons, MLIP Detective further inferred a likely training-data origin for the anomaly, consistent with recent reports.

Prevailing machine-learned interatomic potential (MLIP) uncertainty-quantification methods rely on ensembles of independently trained backbones. These methods scale unfavorably with foundation-scale MLIPs, and their member-disagreement signals correlate weakly with per-molecule prediction error. Here we probe the frozen per-atom representations of a pretrained MLIP with a compact discriminative classifier, recasting MLIP uncertainty quantification as selective classification rather than error regression. The resulting method, PROBE (Post-hoc Reliability frOm Backbone Embeddings), produces a per-prediction reliability probability that monotonically tracks actual error without modification to the underlying model. Across large held-out evaluation sets and two structurally distinct MLIP architectures, PROBE outperforms ensemble disagreement as a binary reliability signal, which strengthens with the expressiveness of the backbone representation, implying a favorable scaling trajectory toward foundation-scale MLIPs. Multi-head self-attention additionally yields per-atom importance maps, providing chemically interpretable diagnostics at no additional computational cost. PROBE is post-hoc and architecture-agnostic, and is directly deployable on any MLIP that exposes per-atom representations.