Operationalising Cyber Risk Management Using AI: Connecting Cyber Incidents to MITRE ATT&CK Techniques, Security Controls, and Metrics

Mapping cyber threat intelligence (CTI) text to MITRE ATT&CK techniques is essential for structured threat analysis, yet manual annotation is costly and does not scale. The ATT&CK taxonomy comprises several hundred attack techniques, and a single CTI passage may describe multiple techniques, making accurate and complete extraction challenging. Existing automated approaches fall short in different ways: multi-label classifiers struggle with severe class imbalance and the large label space, while LLM-based methods--retrieval pipelines and fine-tuned generators--optimize token-level objectives that treat technique annotation as sequence generation rather than set prediction, lacking direct supervision on whether the predicted technique set is correct and complete. We propose TTP-R1, a two-stage framework that combines retrieval-augmented supervised fine-tuning (SFT) with reinforcement learning using verifiable rewards (RLVR). A hybrid retriever first narrows the large label space to a candidate set, and a fine-tuned LLM learns to select the correct techniques. We then apply Group Relative Policy Optimization with a decomposed reward that directly supervises the precision, recall, and output format of the predicted technique set. Across four CTI benchmarks, TTP-R1 achieves the best average F1, improving sub-technique-level F1 by 7.4 percentage points over Claude Sonnet 4.5 with retrieval augmentation, while running 28x faster when served as an 8B-parameter model on a single GPU.

Mapping Cyber Threat Intelligence (CTI) text to MITRE ATT&CK technique IDs is a critical task for understanding adversary behaviors and automating threat defense. While recent Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) approaches have demonstrated promising capabilities in this domain, they fundamentally rely on a flat retrieval paradigm. By treating all techniques uniformly, these methods overlook the inherent taxonomy of the ATT&CK framework, where techniques are structurally organized under high-level tactics. In this paper, we propose H-TechniqueRAG, a novel hierarchical RAG framework that injects this tactic-technique taxonomy as a strong inductive bias to achieve highly efficient and accurate annotation. Our approach introduces a two-stage hierarchical retrieval mechanism: it first identifies the macro-level tactics (the adversary's technical goals) and subsequently narrows the search to techniques within those tactics, effectively reducing the candidate search space by 77.5%. To further bridge the gap between retrieval and generation, we design a tactic-aware reranking module and a hierarchy-constrained context organization strategy that mitigates LLM context overload and improves reasoning precision. Comprehensive experiments across three diverse CTI datasets demonstrate that H-TechniqueRAG not only outperforms the state-of-the-art TechniqueRAG by 3.8% in F1 score, but also achieves a 62.4% reduction in inference latency and a 60% decrease in LLM API calls. Further analysis reveals that our hierarchical structural priors equip the model with superior cross-domain generalization and provide security analysts with highly interpretable, step-by-step decision paths.

Classifying Cyber Threat Intelligence (CTI) using MITRE Adversarial Tactics, Techniques, and Common Knowledge (ATT&CK) is essential for proactive defense, but historically required extensive human effort. Pre-Large Language Model (LLM) automation sped up this process, but could not resolve the complex language and multi-step attack patterns found in unstructured CTI reports. LLMs addressed previous limitations by using contextual reasoning to understand unstructured text. However, current evaluations rely on simplified, single-technique sentences that ignore the complexity of real-world CTI reports, which often leads to inflated performance results. Consequently, the baseline performance of open-source LLMs on complex unstructured CTI reports remains unevaluated. To address this gap, we constructed a ground-truth dataset of 2,076 human-annotated sentences (1,281 technique-positive, 795 negative) from 83 complex unstructured CTI reports. These sentences were mapped to 114 unique ATT&CK techniques using a six-phase annotation process, achieving \k{appa} = 0.68 inter-annotator agreement. Using this dataset, we evaluated seven open-source LLMs ranging from 8B to 236B parameters across prompt strategy and temperature configurations. The highest-performing LLM achieved a micro-averaged F1 score of 0.22, establishing the empirical baseline for multi-label ATT&CK classification on complex unstructured CTI. Parameter size showed a statistically significant positive correlation with F1 score. Prompt strategy and temperature produced no statistically significant gains across model configurations. These results indicate that current open-source LLMs are insufficient for production-grade ATT&CK classification. The dataset, benchmark, and findings provide a reproducible foundation for future CTI research.