When LLM Judge Scores Look Good but Best-of-N Decisions Fail
Abstract
Large language models are often used as judges to score candidate responses, then validated with a single global metric such as correlation with reference labels. This can be misleading when the real deployment task is best-of-n selection within a prompt. In a 5,000-prompt best-of-4 benchmark from Chatbot Arena, a judge with moderate global correlation (r = 0.47) captures only 21.0% of the improvement that perfect selection would achieve over random choice. The gap arises because global agreement is driven largely by prompt-level baseline effects, while selection depends on within-prompt ranking: within-prompt correlation is only r_within = 0.27, and coarse pointwise scoring creates ties in 67% of pairwise comparisons. In a matched-pair best-of-2 audit, explicit pairwise judging recovers much of this lost signal, raising recovery from 21.1% to 61.2%. For judge-based selection, the relevant audit should report within-prompt signal, tie rates, and recovery/top-1 accuracy, not global agreement alone.
Figures & tables
| Metric | Definition | Measures |
|---|---|---|
| Global | Level validity (conflates sources) | |
| Top-1 accuracy (PCS n ) | Probability of correct selection | |
| Within-prompt coupling | ||
| Slope | Signal attenuation | |
| Conditional directional accuracy | ||
| Tie-adjusted agreement | Decision-aligned accuracy |
| Metric | Point Estimate | 95% CI |
|---|---|---|
| Global | 0.471 | — |
| Within-prompt | 0.267 | [0.234, 0.297] |
| (attenuation) | 0.180 | [0.155, 0.204] |
| (conditional sign agree) | 67.6% | [66.3%, 68.9%] |
| (ranking) | 0.260 | [0.24, 0.28] |
| (tie-aware) | 55.2% | — |
| Component | Judge | Oracle |
|---|---|---|
| Between-context variance (prompt-level) | 74% | 81% |
| Within-context variance (candidate-level) | 26% | 19% |
| Method | Tie Rate | Agreement | Recovery | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pointwise | 59.8% | 75.2% | 60.5% | 21.1% |
| Pairwise | 3.9% | 81.1% | 80.6% | 61.2% |
| Strategy | Calls/Prompt | Tie Rate | PCS@4 | Recovery | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pointwise | 4 | 0.267 | 65.1% | 31.8% | 20.7% |
| Quantized pointwise | 4 | 0.267 | 65.2% | 31.8% | 20.7% |
| Pairwise-Borda (partial) | 6 | 0.359 | 41.2% | 40.8% | 51.3% |
| Target Recovery | Required | Required |
|---|---|---|
| 25% | 54% | 0.17 |
| 50% | 60% | 0.42 |
| 75% | 69% | 0.76 |
| Regime | Global | Sign Agree | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|
| Similar policies only | 0.47 | 67.6% | 21.0% |
| All (incl. unhelpful) | 0.82 | 88.2% | 67.2% |
| Judge | Family | Global | Within | Gap | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.2 | OpenAI | 0.87 | 0.70 | 20% | 69.4% |
| Claude Sonnet 4 | Anthropic | 0.59 | 0.42 | 29% | 47.7% |
| GPT-4.1-mini | OpenAI | 0.56 | 0.47 | 17% | 43.6% |
| Gemini-2.5-flash | 0.47 | 0.27 | 42% | 23.8% | |
| Llama-3.3-70b | Meta | 0.31 | 0.23 | 25% | 18.6% |
| System-level benchmarking | Within-prompt optimization |
|---|---|
| Goal: compare models on average across many prompts | Goal: pick the best candidate for one prompt |
| Primary metric: global agreement/correlation is often appropriate | Primary metric must include decision utility (Recovery/PCS) |
| Main risk: judge bias can skew leaderboard estimates | Main risk: global metrics can look strong while local ranking is weak |
| Recommended checks: aggregate agreement + transport/bias diagnostics | Recommended checks: , tie rates, , Recovery, PCS |
| Level | Guarantee | Does not guarantee |
|---|---|---|
| Correlation validity | High global agreement with oracle labels | Reliable within-prompt ranking or best-of- gains |
| Level validity | Unbiased policy-level averages after calibration | Correct candidate-level ordering within a prompt |
| Directional validity | Positive within-prompt ranking signal | Large end-to-end decision gains (Recovery/PCS) |
| Decision validity | Real utility in best-of- selection (high Recovery/PCS) | Causal attribution for why utility is high or low |
Appendix figures & tables22 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
| Method | Sign Agreement |
|---|---|
| No calibration | 66.3% |
| Monotonic (isotonic) | 66.5% |
| With covariates (GBM) | 58.8% |
| Metric | Our Study | PPE-MATH |
| Global | 0.47 | 0.38 |
| Within-prompt | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| Gap (inflation) | 43% | 22% |
| Recovery | 21.0% | 30% |
| Reference-label variance: between-context | 81% | 30% |
| Reference-label variance: within-context | 19% | 70% |
| Judge | Global | Within | Gap | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5-mini (7 cheaper) | 0.84 | 0.54 | 35% | 52% |
| GPT-4.1-nano (35 cheaper) | 0.49 | 0.29 | 42% | 2% |
| Setting | Global | Within | Judge tie rate | PCS 4 | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Within-policy, fresh draws | 0.70 | 0.29 | 69.4% | 27.4% | 2.2% |
| Dataset | (pt / qtz) | Tie rate (pt / qtz) | Recovery (pt / qtz) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPE-MATH (512) | 4 | 0.303 / 0.310 | 37.0% / 37.0% | 31.8% / 31.8% |
| RewardBench2 (300) | 4 | 0.630 / 0.633 | 19.4% / 19.4% | 86.7% / 86.7% |
| HelpSteer2 (300) | 2 | 0.618 / 0.618 | 31.7% / 31.7% | 49.5% / 49.5% |
| Judge | Setting | Recovery | Total tokens | Gain per 1k tokens |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-4.1-mini | Pointwise (4 calls/prompt) | 26.2% | 199,087 | 0.01055 |
| Pairwise full RR (6 calls/prompt) | 12.3% | 478,549 | 0.00206 | |
| Pairwise token-matched partial (4 edges/prompt) | 14.5% | same as pointwise | — | |
| GPT-5 (pilot) | Pointwise (4 calls/prompt) | 79.8% | 180,389 | 0.01303 |
| Pairwise full RR (6 calls/prompt) | 68.6% | 370,950 | 0.00545 | |
| Pairwise token-matched partial (4 edges/prompt) | 73.2% | same as pointwise | — |
| Budget | Random | Margin | Gain-Optimal | Headroom |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% | 0.785 | 0.785 | 0.814 | 101% |
| 25% | 0.795 | 0.796 | 0.834 | 97% |
| 50% | 0.812 | 0.814 | 0.845 | 92% |
| Mean Judge Level | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Margin | 0.7 | 0.7–0.8 | 0.8–0.9 | 0.9 |
| 0 (tie) | 0.124 | 0.092 | 0.081 | 0.052 |
| 0–0.05 | — | — | 0.044 | 0.043 |
| 0.05–0.10 | 0.127 | 0.055 | 0.044 | 0.036 |
| 0.10 | 0.063 | 0.076 | 0.103 | — |
| Budget | Random | Margin | 2D Model | Optimal | % Captured |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% | 0.785 | 0.785 | 0.788 | 0.814 | 11% |
| 25% | 0.795 | 0.795 | 0.802 | 0.834 | 18% |
| 50% | 0.812 | 0.814 | 0.822 | 0.845 | 31% |
| Uncertainty Measure | Corr( , gain) | 95% CI |
|---|---|---|
| Margin (baseline) | ||
| Resample std | ||
| CI width |
| Method | Value | Lift vs Random | % of Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Random | 0.798 | — | 0% |
| Margin | 0.800 | +0.2% | 5% |
| CI Width | 0.808 | +1.2% | 26% |
| Optimal | 0.836 | +4.7% | 100% |
| Uncertainty | Corr( , wrong) | Corr( , gap wrong) | Corr( , gain) | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Margin | N/A | N/A | No variance | |
| CI width | Reinforcement | |||
| Resample std | Gap dominates |
| Budget | Recovery | 95% CI | ESS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% (full) | 21.0% | [18.8%, 23.2%] | 5000 |
| 50% | 20.0% | [17.0%, 23.0%] | 2545 |
| 25% | 22.2% | [18.1%, 26.2%] | 1287 |
| 10% | 23.2% | [17.3%, 29.1%] | 492 |
| Budget | Random | Margin | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25% | 1.00 | 1.20 | 0.55 |
| 50% | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.23 |
| Target Recovery | Required | Required |
|---|---|---|
| 25% | 54% | 0.17 |
| 50% | 60% | 0.42 |
| 75% | 69% | 0.76 |
| 90% | 76% | 0.92 |
| Bins | Recovery | |
|---|---|---|
| Continuous | 61.8% | 57.6% |
| 100 | 61.8% | 57.3% |
| 20 | 61.6% | 54.9% |
| 10 | 60.9% | 51.1% |
| 5 | 58.9% | 40.8% |
| Method | Stated P(A) | Observed A-win | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elicited P(A B) | |||
| 0.17 | 0.12 | 0.05 | |
| 0.29 | 0.41 | 0.12 | |
| 0.43 | 0.53 | 0.10 | |
| 0.69 | 0.46 | 0.23 | |
| 0.88 | 0.76 | 0.12 | |
| Component | Judge | Oracle |
|---|---|---|
| Between-prompt variance | 74% | 81% |
| Within-prompt variance | 26% | 19% |
| Quantity | Theoretical | Empirical | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | 0.27 | — | |
| Recovery (if Gaussian) | 27% | 21.0% | 6.0% |
| Tie rate | 0% | 67% | +67% |
| Judge | Global | Within | Tie Rate | Sign Agr | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.2 | 0.872 | 0.701 | 24.8% | 76.5% | 69.4% |
| Claude Sonnet 4 | 0.587 | 0.417 | 59.7% | 77.7% | 47.7% |
| GPT-4.1-mini | 0.563 | 0.465 | 57.8% | 74.8% | 43.6% |
| Gemini-2.5-flash | 0.465 | 0.269 | 55.2% | 66.4% | 23.8% |
| Llama-3.3-70b | 0.308 | 0.232 | 60.7% | 60.4% | 18.6% |
| Mode | Global | Within | Sign Agr | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monotone | +23% | +10% | +0.8% | 0.3% |
| Two-stage | +24% | +10% | +0.3% | 0.3% |
| Two-stage + length | +38% | +17% | 3.7% | +2.6% |
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Large language model evaluation measures what models can do, how reliably they do it, and whether benchmark scores predict real-world performance.
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