Grokking as a Variance-Limited Phase Transition: Spectral Gating and the Epsilon-Stability Threshold

Delayed generalization (\ie~grokking) refers to the phenomenon in which a neural network fits its training data early in training but only begins to generalize after a prolonged delay, often through an abrupt transition. Despite extensive empirical study, its underlying mechanism remains poorly understood. In this work, we first theoretically characterize a shell--core topological configuration of the reachable solution space induced by Adam's optimization dynamics with weight-shrinkage regularization, supported by empirical evidence. This optimization-induced topological configuration gives rise to grokking. In model's parameter space, random initialization solutions concentrate on a thin outer spherical shell, enclosing another spherical shell of memorization solutions, which in turn contains a core corresponding to the generalization solutions. Leveraging stopping-time theory, we then analyze the geometry of this topological configuration and the solution transition time at which optimization trajectories escape the memorization manifold and first reach the boundary of the generalization manifold. Our theoretical analysis derives grokking scaling laws for the learning rate, batch size, and $\ell_2$ regularization coefficient, which are further validated through experiments and shown to recover results from prior literature.

Grokking -- the delayed transition from memorization to generalization in small algorithmic tasks -- remains poorly understood. We present a geometric analysis of optimization dynamics in transformers trained on modular arithmetic. PCA of attention weight trajectories reveals that training evolves predominantly within a low-dimensional execution subspace, with a single principal component capturing 68-83% of trajectory variance. To probe loss-landscape geometry, we measure commutator defects -- the non-commutativity of successive gradient steps -- and project them onto this learned subspace. We find that curvature grows sharply in directions orthogonal to the execution subspace while the trajectory remains largely confined to it. Importantly, curvature growth consistently precedes generalization across learning rates and hyperparameter regimes, with the lead time obeying a power law in the grokking timescale. Causal intervention experiments show that motion along the learned subspace is necessary for grokking, while artificially increasing curvature is insufficient. Together, these results support a geometric account in which grokking reflects escape from a metastable regime characterized by low-dimensional confinement and transverse curvature accumulation. All findings replicate across this learning-rate range, a qualitatively different slow regime (lr=5e-5, wd=0.1, 3 layers), and three random seeds, though alignment dynamics differ quantitatively between regimes. Causal intervention experiments establish that orthogonal gradient flow is necessary but not sufficient for grokking: suppressing it prevents generalization with a monotonic dose-response across four operations, while artificially boosting curvature defects has no effect.

We give the first quantitative prediction of grokking delay under AdamW. Treating the delay as a first-passage time, we derive a closed-form law T_grok - T_mem = (1 / 2 kappa_LL eta lambda) log(V_mem / V_star), where V_t = ||theta_t||^2 is the squared parameter norm, V_star is an architecture-dependent threshold, and kappa_LL absorbs the AdamW correction to the clean-SGD contraction rate 2 eta lambda. Calibrating (kappa_LL, V_star) on a single hyperparameter cell predicts grokking delays on 26 held-out runs with MAPE 17.7% over a 41x delay range; the law generalises to MLPs (MAPE 18.0%, N=34) and degrades to 23.3% on cross-task extension (N=46, 43.5x range), with a structured residual in which V_star / V_mem stays comparatively stable within architecture (CV about 14% on the 1L transformer). First-passage of V_t is necessary but not sufficient. A quantile-margin theorem establishes that positive delay requires both norm separation V_mem > V_post and angular reachability of a threshold alpha_star = arcsin(C / V_T_mem^(1/2)), where C is computable from the empirical NTK feature map and the validation-margin quantile. Calibrating C on modulus p=89 predicts alpha_star = 47.2 degrees at p=97 (observed 47.8 degrees, error 1.3%) as a prior cross-cell prediction. Causal interventions that freeze the norm or remove weight decay at memorisation eliminate grokking (0/6 vs. 3/3 baseline), trapping the angular displacement near 12 degrees. kappa_LL is empirically measured per architecture rather than derived from (beta_1, beta_2, epsilon); within-architecture CV stays at most 15% across four architectures, but values differ by about 2x between architectural variants beyond depth alone. Empirical scope is algorithmic tasks (modular arithmetic, sparse parity) under AdamW; whether the law transfers to natural-language scale models is open.