The Cost of Reasoning: Chain-of-Thought Induces Overconfidence in Vision-Language Models

Uncertainty estimation is critical for deploying reasoning language models, yet remains poorly understood under extended chain-of-thought reasoning. We study parallel sampling as a fully black-box approach using verbalized confidence and self-consistency. Across three reasoning models and 17 tasks spanning mathematics, STEM, and humanities, we characterize how these signals scale. Both self-consistency and verbalized confidence scale in reasoning models, but self-consistency exhibits lower initial discrimination and lags behind verbalized confidence under moderate sampling. Most uncertainty gains, however, arise from signal combination: with just two samples, a hybrid estimator improves AUROC by up to $+12$ on average and already outperforms either signal alone even when scaled to much larger budgets, after which returns diminish. These effects are domain-dependent: in mathematics, the native domain of RLVR-style post-training, reasoning models achieve higher uncertainty quality and exhibit both stronger complementarity and faster scaling than in STEM or humanities.

Recent advances in vision language models (VLMs) offer reasoning capabilities, yet how these unfold and integrate visual and textual information remains unclear. We analyze reasoning dynamics in 18 VLMs covering instruction-tuned and reasoning-trained models from two different model families. We track confidence over Chain-of-Thought (CoT), measure the corrective effect of reasoning, and evaluate the contribution of intermediate reasoning steps. We find that models are prone to answer inertia, in which early commitments to a prediction are reinforced, rather than revised during reasoning steps. While reasoning-trained models show stronger corrective behavior, their gains depend on modality conditions, from text-dominant to vision-only settings. Using controlled interventions with misleading textual cues, we show that models are consistently influenced by these cues even when visual evidence is sufficient, and assess whether this influence is recoverable from CoT. Although this influence can appear in the CoT, its detectability varies across models and depends on what is being monitored. Reasoning-trained models are more likely to explicitly refer to the cues, but their longer and fluent CoTs can still appear visually grounded while actually following textual cues, obscuring modality reliance. In contrast, instruction-tuned models refer to the cues less explicitly, but their shorter traces reveal inconsistencies with the visual input. Taken together, these findings indicate that CoT provides only a partial view of how different modalities drive VLM decisions, with important implications for the transparency and safety of multimodal systems.

Vision-language models (VLMs) can answer simple visual questions, but often struggle when one question requires several visual judgments. We study this gap with controlled tasks for feature binding, numerosity, spatial relations, and amodal completion, together with a Composite task that combines them. Matched counterfactual image pairs isolate changes in the visual evidence needed to answer. Across four models, direct answers, hidden-state readouts, and state interventions show that the individual judgments can be made without explicit reasoning and that intervening on the corresponding states can affect the answer. During reasoning, the Composite answer becomes decodable from hidden states and usable from shortened traces, often before the model stops on its own. We train a small detector to predict this readiness and stop reasoning at that point. On MMStar and RealWorldQA, this reduces mean reasoning tokens by 79.1% and 74.5%, while average accuracy rises by 3.13 and 3.30 percentage points, respectively. These findings connect the internal development of answer readiness to a practical rule for allocating reasoning computation.