Kernel Single-Index Bandits: Estimation, Inference, and Learning

We study the $\textit{single-index bandit}$ problem, where rewards depend on an unknown one-dimensional projection of high-dimensional contexts through an unknown reward function. This model extends linear and generalized linear bandits to a nonparametric setting, and is particularly relevant when the reward function is not known in advance. While optimal regret guarantees are known for monotone reward functions, the general non-monotone case remains poorly understood, with the best known bound being $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(T^{3/4})$ (under standard boundedness and Lipschitz assumptions on the reward function [Kang et al., 2025]). We close this gap by establishing the optimal regret for general single-index bandits. We propose a simple two-phase algorithm, namely, Zoomed Single Index Bandit with Upper Confidence Bound ($\texttt{ZoomSIB-UCB}$), that first estimates the projection direction via a normalized Stein estimator, and then reduces the problem to a one-dimensional bandit using discretization and finally use UCB. This approach achieves a regret of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(T^{2/3})$, and improves significantly upon prior work without any additional assumptions. We also prove a matching minimax lower bound of $\tildeΩ(T^{2/3})$, showing that the upper bound is essentially tight. Our upper and lower bounds together provide a sharp characterization of the regret in single-index bandits. Moreover, the empirical results further demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of our approach.

Contextual bandit algorithms have transformed modern experimentation by enabling real-time adaptation for personalized treatment. Yet these advantages create challenges for statistical inference due to adaptivity. We study inference with contextual-bandit data without assuming a well-specified outcome model. In this setting, we show a previously overlooked issue: standard algorithms such as LinUCB may fail to stabilize under misspecified working models, leading to non-Gaussian estimator behavior and invalid inference. This issue is practically important, as misspecified working models -- such as approximations of complex dynamical systems -- are often employed by online agents in real-world adaptive experiments to balance reward, computational tractability, and robustness. We develop an inverse-probability-weighted Z-estimation framework for a broad class of marginal moment targets, including projection parameters, structural parameters with noisy contexts, and off-policy values. We identify a stability condition tailored to this framework, scaled inverse-propensity convergence, under which the IPW-Z estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal with a consistent sandwich variance estimator. We further establish sufficient conditions for scaled inverse-propensity convergence for several policy classes, including multi-armed bandit algorithms and smooth contextual allocation policies. Simulations and a HeartSteps V1 real-data-calibrated application show reliable coverage and competitive performance across multiple targets. Overall, our results highlight the importance of stability-aware adaptive design for valid post-experiment inference.

We study two-arm contextual bandits with arm-specific single indices and a shared unknown monotone link. Monotonicity makes the optimal action depend only on the contrast between the index directions, hence arm-specific reward functions need not be estimated. We introduce Natural Boundary Learning (NBL), a greedy procedure that uses a sequential Stein contrast to learn the optimal boundary directly, without estimating the reward functions or the common link. We characterize the local Riemannian dynamics of NBL through a decision stability coefficient balancing arm separation, link geometry, and the context distribution. We show that this stability is connected to the elicitation geometry of the underlying convex potential. Under local decision stability, NBL contracts toward the optimal boundary and achieves $O(\log n)$ expected regret. Numerical experiments illustrate the predicted stability regimes and compare NBL with a parametric greedy benchmark under link misspecification.