FinTradeBench: A Financial Reasoning Benchmark for LLMs
Organizations: University of Central Florida
Abstract
Financial analysis requires reasoning over heterogeneous signals, including company fundamentals from regulatory filings and trading signals derived from market prices. However, existing financial benchmarks focus almost exclusively on regulatory filings, neglecting market dynamics and cross-signal interactions. We introduce FinTradeBench, a benchmark of 1,400 questions covering NASDAQ-100 stocks over a ten-year window. To holistically evaluate financial reasoning, FinTradeBench includes questions in three reasoning categories: fundamentals-focused, trading-signal-focused, and hybrid questions that require cross-signal reasoning. Our benchmark starts with 150 expert-authored seed questions, which are then scaled to 1400. To ensure reliable evaluation, we create a Core400 subset in which every item is expert-reviewed. In zero-shot (No-RAG) response generation, we observe that all models perform substantially worse on trading-focused questions compared to fundamental-focused questions. To identify failure causes, we evaluate LLMs under controlled settings including retrieval-based baselines, tool-assisted computation, oracle conditions, and time-series-specialized pipelines. LLMs' capabilities to do computation and evidence selection contribute most to reasoning failures. Additionally, retrieval significantly improves trading-signal reasoning but does not improve fundamental reasoning, where identifying relevant signals remains the dominant failure mode. Finally, rather than relying on a small, fine-tuned model for time-series reasoning, it is better to summarize the time-series data and leverage LLMs' reasoning capabilities.
Figures & tables
| Dataset | Primary evidence | Reasoning target | RAG/Open-book | Market TS | F+T | Evaluation style |
| FinQA ( Chen et al., 2021 ) | Reports, tables | Numerical financial QA | Program / exact match | |||
| TAT-QA ( Zhu et al., 2021 ) | Tables + text | Tabular-text numerical QA | Exact match / derivation | |||
| ConvFinQA ( Chen et al., 2022 ) | Reports, tables | Conversational numerical QA | Program / exact match | |||
| FinanceBench ( Islam et al., 2023 ) | SEC filings, earnings calls | Open-book financial QA | ✓ | Human / reference answer | ||
| FinDER ( Choi et al., 2025 ) | Financial documents | Retrieval-based financial QA | ✓ | Retrieval + answer scoring | ||
| FinTextQA ( Chen et al., 2024b ) | Long-form financial text | Long-form financial QA | ✓ | Human + GPT-4 scoring |
| Condition | Overall | F | T | FT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No-RAG | 2.81 | 3.20 | 2.06 | 3.08 |
| RAG | 2.98 | 3.06 | 2.41 | 3.41 |
| Indicator | 4.69 | 4.77 | 4.44 | 4.83 |
| Tool | 4.57 | 4.42 | 4.61 | 4.69 |
| Oracle | 4.88 | 4.90 | 4.77 | 4.95 |
| GPT-5.4-mini + TimesFM2.5 | 4.12 † | – | 3.70 | 4.51 |
Appendix figures & tables29 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
| Company | Period | Fundamental Signal | Dominant Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon | 1999–2001 | Persistent losses, negative EPS | Market (narrative) |
| Nvidia | 2016–2017 | Moderate earnings, GPU revenue lag | Market (forward expectation) |
| Tesla | 2020 | Modest profitability, high P/E | Market (sentiment) |
| Tesla | Apr. 2025 | EPS miss (0.42), revenue miss | Market (narrative rally) |
| Check | Purpose | Stage |
|---|---|---|
| Golden indicators | Provide an expert-defined minimal evidence set for each question; used for construction auditing and controlled Oracle evidence, not as a complete answer template. | Question design / controlled evaluation |
| Numerical audit | Flag unsupported, contradicted, or unavailable numerical claims in construction-time candidate responses. | Benchmark construction |
| Human–LLM alignment | Verify that automated judge scores approximate expert scores | Judge calibration |
| Aligned judge validation | Validate the human-aligned LLM judge for benchmark scaling | Benchmark Scaling |
| Scaled-set fatal-flaw screen | Identify catastrophic construction failures in the broader 1,400-question collection; 42 responses required regeneration during benchmark scaling. | Broader benchmark construction |
| Canonical-data support screen | Remove Core candidates whose required company/time-period evidence is absent from the frozen canonical data universe. | 450 403 |
| Statistic | Value |
| Broader FinTradeBench collection | 1,400 |
| Expert-authored seed questions | 150 |
| Programmatically scaled questions | 1,250 |
| Core candidate pool | 450 |
| After canonical-data support screen | 403 |
| Final human-validated Core | 400 |
| Signal | Formula | Definition / Description |
| Trading Signals (Notation: = Price at time , = Volume, = Return, = Lookback periods, = Smoothing factor) | ||
| MA (Moving Average) | Average price of stock over fixed lookback window. Smooths out short-term fluctuations to reveal longer-term trends. | |
| EMA (Exp. Moving Average) | Weighted moving average emphasizing recent prices; reacts faster to new information ( is the smoothing factor). | |
| MACD | Momentum indicator based on difference between short- & long-term EMAs; captures trend strength & reversal signals. | |
| RSI (Relative Strength Index) | ( ) | Scaled measure of recent gains vs. losses; high RSI suggests overbought conditions, low RSI indicates oversold conditions. |
| OBV (On-Balance Volume) | Cumulative volume measure linking price movement and trading volume; rising OBV indicates accumulation, falling OBV suggests distribution. | |
| ID | Attributes | Description (Example Behaviour) |
|---|---|---|
| L1 | Single-turn, low detail, instruction-style, role-specified | Instructs the model in simple one-sentence instructions focusing on the high-level goal. |
| L2 | Single-turn, moderate detail, instruction-style, role-specified | Paragraph-style instructions expressing the high-level goal and sub-tasks that need to be performed to achieve the goal |
| L3 | Step-by-step reasoning, moderate detail, decomposed | adds a structured reasoning template (bulleted-list-style): clarify goal, decompose into sub-questions, answer sub-parts using both contexts, and synthesize a final answer. |
| L4 | Step-by-step reasoning, moderate detail, decomposed | “Level 3 Prompt” + “It provides a guideline on how LLMs will be evaluated.” |
| L5 | Step-by-step reasoning, high detail, decomposed | “Level 4 Prompt” + “Provide additional relevant gathered via RAG” |
| L6 | Step-by-step reasoning, Maximalist, high detail, evidence-citing, justified | “Level 5 Prompt” + “Provide explicit statement asking LLM to explain its own output.” |
| Lvl | Type | Strategy | RAG |
| L1 | Baseline | Single-sentence high-level directive. | No |
| L2 | Focus | Role specification + Paragraph style breakdown. | No |
| L3 | CoT | Bulleted Step-by-Step Chain-of-Thought. | No |
| L4 | Auditor | Adds explicit evaluation criteria (e.g., coherence). | No |
| L5 | Context | Injects retrieved evidence and citations. | Yes |
| L6 | Explain | Adds self-justification for data usage. | Yes |
| Stage | Total | F | T | FT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate pool | 450 | 163 | 124 | 163 |
| Canonical-data screening | 403 | 143 | 124 | 136 |
| Human audit | 400 | 143 | 122 | 135 |
| Human-audit criterion | Count | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Question clarity: Pass | 400/403 | 99.3% |
| Question clarity: Pass or Minor | 403/403 | 100.0% |
| Reference answer: Correct | 401/403 | 99.5% |
| Canonical evidence: Full support | 399/403 | 99.0% |
| Golden indicators: Adequate | 402/403 | 99.8% |
| Entity/time alignment: Pass | 403/403 | 100.0% |
| Condition | Fundamental (F) | Trading (T) | Hybrid (FT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| No-RAG | Question only | Question only | Question only |
| Raw-RAG | Point-in-time SEC evidence | Point-in-time raw OHLCV | Point-in-time SEC + raw OHLCV |
| Indicator-RAG | SEC + precomputed fundamental indicators | Precomputed trading indicators | SEC + fundamental + trading indicators |
| Tool-Use | SEC evidence | Raw OHLCV + deterministic tool routing | SEC + raw OHLCV + deterministic tool routing |
| Oracle | Gold-selected indicator evidence | Gold-selected indicator evidence | Gold-selected indicator evidence |
| System | Study | Exact model identifier | Provider / endpoint | Inference configuration |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeepSeek-V4-Flash ( DeepSeek-AI et al., 2026 ) | General QA | DeepSeek-V4-Flash | Azure AI Foundry, OpenAI-compatible v1; deployment ftb-deepseek-v4-flash | Max output 1,200 tokens. The endpoint is invoked without custom temperature or top- . Visible <think> blocks are removed before scoring. API timeout 900 s with up to six retries. |
| GPT-5.4-mini ( OpenAI, 2026 ) | General QA | gpt-5.4-mini | Azure AI Foundry, OpenAI-compatible v1; deployment ftb-gpt54mini | Max completion 1,200 tokens; reasoning_effort=medium . No custom temperature or top- is supplied to the endpoint. API timeout 900 s with up to six retries. |
| Gemini-3.8-Flash ( Google DeepMind, 2026 ) | General QA | gemini-3.8-flash | Google Vertex AI v1 ( google-genai ); location global | Max output 1,200 tokens; thinking_level=MEDIUM . Deprecated temperature/top- controls are not supplied. API timeout 900 s with up to six retries. |
| Llama-4-Scout ( Meta AI, 2025 ) | General QA + Controlled | Llama-4-Scout-17B-16E-Instruct | Azure AI Foundry, OpenAI-compatible v1; deployment ftb-llama4-scout | General QA: max output 10,000 tokens; candidate generation uses temperature , top- ; self-selection is deterministic (temperature , top- ). Controlled conditions use a 10,000-token answer ceiling; Tool-Use router ceiling 1,024 tokens. |
| Qwen3.8-27B ( Qwen Team, 2026 ) | General QA + Controlled | Qwen3.8-27B | Local vLLM ( Kwon et al., 2023 ) , OpenAI-compatible loopback endpoint | General QA: max output 1,200 tokens; candidate generation temperature , top- ; deterministic self-selection; seed 42; thinking explicitly disabled. Controlled: max output 1,200 tokens; deterministic generation; router ceiling 120 tokens. Serving: BF16, max model length 32,768, GPU-memory utilization 0.90. |
| Ministral-3-8B ( Liu et al., 2026 ) | General QA | Ministral-3-8B-Instruct-2512 | Local vLLM ( Kwon et al., 2023 ) , OpenAI-compatible loopback endpoint | Max output 1,200 tokens; candidate generation temperature , top- ; deterministic self-selection; seed 42. Serving: BF16, max model length 32,768, GPU-memory utilization 0.90, Mistral tokenizer/config/load format. |
| System / run | Execution mode | Inference hardware | Client allocation | Recorded completing-job wall time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qwen3.8-27B ( Qwen Team, 2026 ) | Local vLLM ( Kwon et al., 2023 ) | 1 NVIDIA H100 80GB HBM3 | 16 CPU cores, 256 GB RAM | 21:58:41 † |
| Ministral-3-8B ( Liu et al., 2026 ) | Local vLLM ( Kwon et al., 2023 ) | 1 NVIDIA H100 80GB HBM3 | 16 CPU cores, 256 GB RAM | 02:27:38 |
| Llama-4-Scout ( Meta AI, 2025 ) | Azure AI Foundry API | Provider-managed; accelerator not exposed | 16 CPU cores, 64 GB RAM | 07:11:05 † |
| GPT-5.4-mini ( OpenAI, 2026 ) | Azure AI Foundry API, General QA | Provider-managed; accelerator not exposed | 16 CPU cores, 64 GB RAM | 06:03:29 † |
| DeepSeek-V4-Flash ( DeepSeek-AI et al., 2026 ) | Azure AI Foundry API | Provider-managed; accelerator not exposed | 16 CPU cores, 64 GB RAM | 02:19:38 † |
| Gemini-3.8-Flash ( Google DeepMind, 2026 ) | Vertex AI API | Provider-managed; accelerator not exposed | 16 CPU cores, 64 GB RAM | 08:45:51 † |
| Stage | Unit reviewed | Human task | Role in pipeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seed construction and development calibration | Seed questions and generated responses | Experts author seed questions and golden indicators; generated responses are subsequently scored to calibrate the development-time automated evaluator. | Benchmark construction and evaluator development |
| Scaled-set fatal-flaw screening | Scaled question–answer pairs | Screen for catastrophic generation failures such as wrong entity, incomplete answers, or abrupt truncation; ambiguous cases are escalated. | Construction quality control |
| Core403 item-level audit | Benchmark items | Inspect the question, reference answer, golden indicators, canonical point-in-time evidence, and entity/time alignment. | Final benchmark curation: Core403 Core400 |
| Held-out judge validation | Anonymous model responses | Score responses using the frozen four-dimension rubric and record blinded A/B/Tie preferences. | Post-freeze evaluator validation only |
| Dimension | MAE | Exact | QWK | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 0.17 | 0.95 | 83.3% | 100.0% | 0.945 |
| Completeness | 0.29 | 0.88 | 75.0% | 95.8% | 0.882 |
| Relevance | 0.40 | 0.86 | 68.8% | 91.7% | 0.809 |
| Clarity | 0.21 | 0.86 | 79.2% | 100.0% | 0.857 |
| All rubric ratings | 0.27 | 0.89 | 76.6% | 96.9% | 0.884 |
| Comparison | Pairs | Decisive | Strict | Direct. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24 | 15 | 70.8% | 100.0% |
| Oracle vs. Indicator | 8 | 4 | 62.5% | 100.0% |
| RAG vs. No-RAG | 8 | 6 | 87.5% | 100.0% |
| TimesFM+GPT vs. ChatTS | 4 | 3 | 75.0% | 100.0% |
| Tool vs. Indicator | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 100.0% |
| Quantity | Core403 | Core400 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| ChatTS overall | 3.0386 | 3.0321 | 0.0065 |
| GPT+TimesFM overall | 4.1158 | 4.1235 | +0.0077 |
| Paired time-series effect | 1.0772 | 1.0914 | +0.0142 |
| Lane | 95% CI | W/T/L | |||
| DeepSeek-V4-Flash | |||||
| All | 399 | +0.23 | [.15, .30] | 53/17/31 | .001 |
| Fund. | 143 | 0.06 | [ .19, .07] | 39/15/46 | .683 |
| Trad. | 121 | +0.46 | [.35, .57] | 69/16/16 | .001 |
| Hybrid | 135 | +0.32 | [.21, .44] | 53/19/27 | .001 |
| Llama-4-Scout | |||||
| Tool Indicator | Oracle Indicator | Oracle Tool | ||||||||
| Lane | 95% CI | 95% CI | 95% CI | |||||||
| Qwen2.5-32B | ||||||||||
| All | 399 | 0.17 | [ 0.27, 0.06] | .004 | +0.26 | [0.17, 0.36] | .001 | +0.43 | [0.33, 0.53] | .001 |
| Fund. | 143 | 0.74 | [ 0.90, 0.58] | .001 | +0.01 | [ 0.11, 0.13] | 1.00 | +0.75 | [0.61, 0.89] | .001 |
| Trad. | 121 | +0.64 | [0.44, 0.85] | .001 | +0.82 | [0.62, 1.04] | .001 | +0.18 | [ 0.05, 0.40] | 1.00 |
| Hybrid | 135 | 0.28 | [ 0.41, 0.15] | .001 | +0.03 | [ 0.10, 0.15] | 1.00 | +0.31 | [0.15, 0.46] | .001 |
| Lane | 95% CI | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 257 | +1.091 | [0.944, 1.245] |
| Trading | 122 | +0.525 | [0.277, 0.775] |
| Hybrid | 135 | +1.604 | [1.472, 1.739] |
| Criterion | Scale | Reviewer instruction / anchors |
|---|---|---|
| Audit Validation Agreement | 0–1 | Does the independent human review agree with the automated numerical audit’s is_numerically_accurate flag? 1 : Agree—the audit conclusion is correct. 0 : Disagree—the audit missed an error or incorrectly flagged a correct claim. |
| Factual & Numerical Accuracy | 1–5 | Based on the reviewer’s own assessment, together with the numerical audit, assign the final accuracy score. 5 : 100% correct. 1 : Contains significant, misleading numerical errors. |
| Completeness & Context | 1–5 | Does the answer fully address the question and correctly use and contextualize the golden indicators? 5 : Excellent; uses required metrics in a deep, integrated analysis. 1 : Superficial; misses most required metrics or necessary context. |
| Relevance & Utility | 1–5 | Is the included information relevant, and does the response avoid fluff or potentially misleading tangents? 5 : High precision; no fluff or harmful information. 1 : Cluttered with irrelevant or misleading content. |
| Clarity & Rationale | 1–5 | Is the answer clear and well structured, and does it explain its reasoning? 5 : Exceptionally clear and well reasoned. 1 : Confusing, poorly written, or reasoning is opaque. |
| Screening category | Operational interpretation | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Wrong entity / company | Response analyzes a different company, ticker, or proxy rather than the entity requested by the question. | Regenerate |
| Wrong period / ticker–period mismatch | Response is inconsistent with the requested historical entity or period. | Regenerate |
| Unsupported material claims | Response contains material claims that are not supported by the benchmark evidence available for the item. | Regenerate / escalate if ambiguous |
| Conclusion inconsistent with supplied evidence | Final conclusion conflicts materially with the information or indicators associated with the item. | Regenerate / escalate if ambiguous |
| Incomplete answer | Response fails to answer a required part of the question; for example, a cross-company question is answered using only one company. | Regenerate |
| Abrupt truncation / sudden break | Generation terminates before completing the reasoning or answering the main question. | Regenerate |
| Dimension | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Factual & Numerical Accuracy | Fully supported by supplied evidence; calculations and entity/time references are sound. | Mostly correct with a minor non-material issue. | Mixed: useful core analysis but meaningful errors or unsupported details. | Substantial factual or numerical problems. | Materially wrong, contradicted by evidence, or wrong entity/period. |
| Completeness & Context | Fully answers the question and covers evidence needed for the conclusion. | Substantively complete with a minor omission. | Partially complete; misses a meaningful aspect. | Major omissions. | Largely non-responsive. |
| Relevance & Utility | Directly addresses the question with useful synthesis. | Relevant with small digressions. | Useful but noticeably generic, padded, or indirect. | Weakly relevant. | Mostly irrelevant or non-responsive. |
| Clarity & Rationale | Concise, clear, and well justified. | Clear with minor presentation issues. | Understandable but wordy, repetitive, or mechanical. | Difficult to follow or poorly justified. | Confusing or disjointed. |
| Pairwise fields | |||||
| Pairwise preference (A / B / Tie) | Entered only after all four ratings were completed independently for both responses. | ||||
| Dimension | Labels | Rubric definition |
|---|---|---|
| Question Clarity | Pass; Minor issue; Major issue | Pass : clear and answerable at the historical point in time. Minor issue : small wording or precision issue that does not change the task. Major issue : ambiguous, inconsistent, based on an unanswerable or false premise, or not answerable from benchmark evidence. |
| Reference Answer Correctness | Correct; Minor correction; Major incorrect; Unverifiable | Correct : material claims and conclusion are supported. Minor correction : main conclusion remains valid but a small correction is needed. Major incorrect : material claims or conclusion conflict with evidence. Unverifiable : supplied evidence is insufficient. For subjective investment-style questions, the reviewer was instructed not to require a unique recommendation; the conclusion instead had to be defensible and appropriately qualified. |
| Evidence Support | Full; Partial; Unsupported; Evidence missing | Full : evidence is sufficient for the material claims and conclusion. Partial : supports the main conclusion but not all secondary claims. Unsupported : material claims are unsupported or contradicted. Evidence missing : no usable canonical evidence. |
| Golden-Indicator Adequacy | Adequate; Minor issue; Missing critical; Incorrect; N/A | Adequate : captures the key evidence. Minor issue : basically correct with a non-critical omission or extraneous item. Missing critical : an essential indicator is absent. Incorrect : materially mismatched. N/A : an indicator checklist is not meaningful for the item. Golden indicators were explicitly treated as a minimal evidence set, not a mandatory wording checklist. |
| Entity / Time Alignment | Pass; Unclear; Fail | Pass : entity and cutoff are aligned and no post-cutoff evidence is required. Unclear : alignment cannot be verified confidently. Fail : wrong entity or historical period, or future information is required or used. |
| Record fields | ||