DataProphet: Demystifying Supervision Data Generalization in Multimodal LLMs

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have achieved rapid progress, yet their scaling behavior remains less clearly characterized and often less predictable than that of text-only LLMs. Increasing model size and task diversity often yields diminishing returns. In this work, we argue that the primary bottleneck in multimodal scaling is not task format, but knowledge density in training data. We first show that task-specific supervision such as Visual Question Answering (VQA) contributes little incremental semantic information beyond image captions: VQA signals can be reconstructed from captions with negligible performance loss. We then demonstrate that increasing knowledge density -- through structured caption enrichment and cross-modal knowledge injection -- leads to consistent performance improvements across multimodal and downstream benchmarks. Across controlled experiments, performance correlates more strongly with semantic coverage than with task diversity. These findings suggest that current MLLMs fail to scale primarily because training data lacks sufficient knowledge coverage. We advocate for knowledge-centric multimodal training as a principled foundation for scalable multimodal models.

We conduct a systematic study of 18 widely used vision-language benchmarks and identify three major issues: 1) many items do not rely on visual cues and therefore fail to effectively measure multimodal understanding; 2) many items are already close to performance saturation for current LVLMs, which limits their discriminative power; 3) a small number of anomalous items affect the reliability of evaluation results. To this end, we propose MMGist, a curated benchmark that covers seven capability dimensions and contains 7,262 items. MMGist is constructed through a three-stage pipeline, which sequentially combines text-ablation filtering, cross-model saturation filtering, and anomaly detection filtering. We conduct extensive experiments on 27 leading LVLMs and compare MMGist with the raw pool of 23,250 items. The results show that MMGist preserves model rankings with high fidelity, with Spearman $ρ= 0.98$, while reducing evaluation items by 69% and improving cross-model discrimination by 78%. Further results indicate that Visual Logic remains a systematic weakness of current LVLMs, while knowledge-intensive dimensions such as Expert Knowledge dimensions remain important factors for distinguishing closed-source models from open-source models. These findings suggest that high-quality evaluation should prioritize visual dependency, discriminative power, and reliability, rather than simply pursuing benchmark scale.

Multi-modal large language models (MLLMs) achieve strong modality understanding by pairing a large language model (LLM) with an encoder for a target modality such as vision, video, or audio. However, improving an MLLM's capability for a given modality typically requires additional training on large modality-specific datasets, incurring substantial data collection and compute costs. Model merging offers an alternative, but it is often infeasible for data-scarce, large per-sample size, or domain-specific modalities (e.g., audio and video), where same-modality model variants are rarely available. In this work, we characterize an intriguing asymmetric phenomenon: merging a well-aligned, data-rich source-modality MLLM into a data-scarce target-modality MLLM substantially improves the target on its own benchmarks. Our theoretical and empirical analyses show that this gain stems from enhanced alignment between modality-specific and textual tokens, induced by the stronger donor modality. Specifically, we derive a mutual-information lower bound that is monotonic in alignment-related quantities and strongly correlated with downstream MLLM performance. Building on this principle, we propose Directional Cross-modal Alignment Transfer (DCAT), a novel framework that transfers textual alignment from a strong, well-aligned source (donor) modality to a weak target (recipient) modality, boosting target-modality performance without further fine-tuning. We further show that the alignment-enhancing objective admits a closed-form weight-space solution computed from only a small calibration set. DCAT outperforms existing model-merging methods, offering an efficient path toward cross-modal alignment transfer. Project page with code is available at https://seohoiki3215.github.io/DCAT_project_page