Organizations: Department of Computer Science, Baylor University · NEC Labs America · School of Computer and Cyber Sciences, Augusta University · School of Computing, Southern Illinois University · Department of Data Science, The College of William and Mary
Uncovering causal structures from observational data is crucial for understanding complex systems and making informed decisions. While reinforcement learning (RL) has shown promise in identifying these structures in the form of a directed acyclic graph (DAG), existing methods often lack efficiency, making them unsuitable for online applications. In this paper, we propose MARLIN, an efficient multi agent RL based approach for incremental DAG learning. MARLIN uses a DAG generation policy that maps a continuous real valued space to the DAG space as an intra batch strategy, then incorporates two RL agents state specific and state invariant to uncover causal relationships and integrates these agents into an incremental learning framework. Furthermore, the framework leverages a factored action space to enhance parallelization efficiency. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real datasets demonstrate that MARLIN outperforms state of the art methods in terms of both efficiency and effectiveness.
Figures & tables
Figure 1: Comparison of the learning processes of offline (top) and online (bottom) RL-based DAG learning methods in an online data stream. The gradient colors on the RL agent represent its learning progress, with white indicating the initial state. When the color aligns with a data batch, it signifies that the agent has learned the current causal mechanism. Instead of learning from scratch, online DAG learning needs to incrementally and efficiently adapt to continuously arriving data batches and non-stationary data distributions.
Figure 2: (a) The pipeline of MARLIN across three consecutive system states. For each batch, MARLIN learns the DAG using the intra-batch single-step RL algorithm, which includes state-specific and state-invariant RL agents optimizing their policies through an actor-critic approach. Detailed network architecture and variables are explained in Section Incremental Multi-Agent Reinforced DAG Learning . MARLIN facilitates efficient incremental DAG learning by disentangling state-specific and state-invariant causal relationships.
Figure 3: Average performance of DAG learning across all states on synthetic Linear-Gaussian datasets, varying (a) DAG scale ( d={20,50,100} ) and (b) transition noise rate ( e={0,1,5} ) for MARLIN and other baselines. The shaded area represents the standard deviation; ↑ indicates that higher values are better, while ↓ indicates that lower values are better.
TPR ↑
FDR ↓
SHD ↓
AUROC ↑
SID ↓
ATB ↓
QR
PC
0.30(0.01)
0.65(0.02)
83.2(1.3)
0.58(0.00)
330.0(6.8)
−
NOTEARS
0.28(0.01)
0.15(0.03)
78.0(1.9)
0.63(0.00)
270.0(6.5)
−
GOLEM
0.36(0.01)
0.35(0.02)
78.2(1.4)
0.65(0.01)
245.0(8.6)
−
D-GNN
0.31(0.00)
0.38(0.05)
86.5(3.1)
0.63(0.01)
264.0(5.9)
−
RL-BIC
0.84(0.02)
0.30(0.02)
26.3(2.1)
0.89(0.01)
102.0(6.1)
330(60)
CORL
0.88(0.01)
0.25(0.01)
21.1(0.7)
0.92(0.01)
78.1(11.1)
416(38)
Table 1: DAG learning performance on synthetic QR and GP datasets with standard deviations reported in parentheses. A dash ( − ) for ATB indicates methods with notably poor performance. Bold indicates the best performance; ↑ indicates higher is better, and ↓ indicates lower is better.
Figure 4: Overall performance on the SWaT dataset across (a) PR@ K , (b) AP@ K , and (c) MRR metrics.
PR@1
PR@3
PR@5
AP@1
AP@3
AP@5
MRR
ATC ↓
PC
16.7%
33.3%
50.0%
16.7%
27.8%
36.7%
35.2%
51
NOTEARS
38.9%
55.6%
72.2%
38.9%
50.0%
57.8%
54.4%
88
GOLEM
11.1%
27.8%
61.1%
11.1%
18.5%
32.2%
30.1%
227
D-GNN
33.3%
50.0%
72.2%
33.3%
40.7%
51.1%
47.9%
315
RL-BIC
33.3%
44.4%
72.2%
33.3%
40.7%
52.2%
49.7%
171
CORL
27.8%
72.2%
88.9%
27.8%
51.9%
65.6%
52.8%
141
Table 2: RCA Performance on OB dataset. All metrics except ATC are better when their values are higher.
TPR ↑
SHD ↓
AUROC ↑
SID ↓
ATB ↓
d=20
MARLIN
0.99(0.01)
5.24(0.8)
0.99(0.00)
9.6(2.4)
26(2)
MARLIN-S
0.96(0.01)
14.5(1.1)
0.97(0.00)
22.4(1.5)
16(2)
d=50
MARLIN
0.92(0.02)
38.9(8.4)
0.95(0.01)
302(41.9)
182(23)
MARLIN-S
0.88(0.02)
82.1(11.8)
0.90(0.01)
401.6(46.1)
195(18)
d=100
MARLIN
0.85(0.03)
105.5(10.1)
0.93(0.01)
1713.0(85.9)
1321(105)
MARLIN-S
0.82(0.02)
180.6(6.2)
0.86(0.01)
2240.3(67.7)
1687(111)
Table 3: Ablation study results on synthetic LG datasets with varying DAG scales ( d=20,50,100 ).
Causal discovery has shifted from data-centric methods to hybrid strategies that integrate semantic knowledge from experts or large language models (LLMs). Such external information is vital for identifying causal structures beyond the Markov Equivalence Class (MEC), which data alone cannot resolve. However, expert availability is often limited, and LLMs frequently misidentify causal directions in specialized domains. To overcome such shortcomings, we propose a tag-based approach that leverages semantically meaningful labels while deriving causal directionality directly from data. Using variable-level tag assignments from available sources (e.g., LLMs), our tags for DAGs method learns from identifiable data structures to extract higher-level causal relations. These are then used to orient undirected edges, enabling causal discovery to move beyond the MEC without reliance on fallible external knowledge.
Florian Peter Busch, Moritz Willig, Florian Guldan +2
Computer Science Department, Technical University of Darmstadt · Hessian Center for AI (hessian.AI) · German Research Center for AI (DFKI) +2
Online reinforcement learning (RL) relies on the Markov property for guaranteed performance, but real-world applications often lack well-defined states given raw observed variables. While causal RL has attracted growing interest, existing work typically assumes Markovian states are provided and uses causality only to accelerate learning. This leaves a fundamental gap: given a longitudinal causal graph over observed variables, how does one construct MDP states that provably satisfy the Markov property? We provide a procedure that constructs a provably minimal such state. In deep RL, the minimal representation alone empirically fails to improve performance, indicating that neural networks cannot automatically exploit Markovian minimality. We therefore propose MOSE (Multi-Order State Exposure), which exposes a single shared Q-function to history-based state constructions of orders 1 through W simultaneously. An attention-based selection layer scores the dimensions of this combined input by their estimated relevance to value-function estimation and selects the high-scoring ones. Causal MOSE further constrains the selection layer to retain every variable of the minimal state, guaranteeing sufficiency while leaving the model free to admit useful redundancy. MOSE consistently outperforms both the minimal state construction and single-window policies on common benchmarks and synthetic datasets. Including the minimal representation alongside MOSE can further improve performance. Our results establish a core principle for causal deep RL: minimal sufficiency is not enough. Controlled redundancy gives the model flexibility to learn its state representation end-to-end. Causal state information provides structural guidance that can make this learning more efficient.
Causal structure learning, also known as causal discovery, aims to estimate causal relationships between variables as a form of a causal directed acyclic graph (DAG) from observational data. One of the major frameworks is the order-based approach that first estimates a topological order of the underlying DAG and then prunes spurious edges from the fully-connected DAG induced by the estimated topological order. Previous studies often focus on the former ordering step because it can dramatically reduce the search space of DAGs. In practice, the latter pruning step is equally crucial for ensuring both computational efficiency and estimation accuracy. Most existing methods employ a pruning technique based on generalized additive models and hypothesis testing, commonly known as CAM-pruning. However, this approach can be a computational bottleneck as it requires repeatedly fitting additive models for all variables. Furthermore, it may harm estimation quality due to multiple testing. To address these issues, we introduce a new pruning method based on sparse additive models, which enables direct pruning of redundant edges without relying on hypothesis testing. We propose an efficient algorithm for learning sparse additive models by combining the randomized tree embedding technique with group-wise sparse regression. Experimental results on both synthetic and real datasets demonstrated that our method is significantly faster than existing pruning methods while maintaining comparable or superior accuracy.