Confidence Freeze: Early Success Induces a Metastable Decoupling of Metacognition and Behaviour

Continual learning is usually studied through mechanisms that preserve old knowledge. We develop Successional Learning Theory (SLT), a mesoscopic account in which the current representation is a resident community, the incoming task is an invader, forgetting is resident displacement, joint retention is coexistence, replay is resident reinforcement, and training moves from establishment toward stabilization. Its empirical coordinate is directional pre-invasion compatibility, measured on the resident model before the incoming task is learned. Across eight experiments, compatibility orders later forgetting on the 20 directed Split-CIFAR-10 transitions (three-repeat r=-0.789, incoming-task cluster 95% CI [-0.90,-0.72], every repeat alone r<=-0.67), forecasts held-out forgetting with 24% lower error than a no-information baseline, and reproduces under controlled MNIST permutations and CIFAR-10 rotations (r=-0.804, -0.718). On an 84-transition suite, compatibility separates coexistence from exclusion at every retention threshold (AUC 0.93-0.97). Replay repairs every transition with at most 325 stored examples and is most efficient where displacement is largest. Compatibility reaches |r|=0.720, while activation, representation, Jacobian, and fixed-coefficient Lotka-Volterra specializations do not. Plasticity and feature turnover fall reliably from early to late training (15/15 and 14/15 runs). We formalize a minimum habitat-modification bound, a displacement floor, a sufficient coexistence condition, an identifiability law with a range-restriction corollary, successional stabilization, and local reinforcement. The identifiability law also predicts where the coordinate loses leverage, and the prediction matches three CIFAR-100 partitions and five optimizer regimes. SLT is a pre-adaptation diagnostic that complements replay, regularization, and projection methods.

We study a single idea across two settings: that a prediction-error signal, computed by a small predictor over the latent space of a frozen encoder, can serve both as a gate on plasticity and as a substrate for metacognition. In the first system, a non-parametric episodic memory writes a new concept only when this surprise is high, and a periodic offline replay phase consolidates recent traces into a slow linear readout. On a continual stream of 1000 ImageNet classes with a frozen DINOv2 or I-JEPA backbone, the consolidation phase recovers 17.7 points of retention on the oldest classes for DINOv2 and 51.3 points for I-JEPA (single-seed runs), and an ablation shows that replaying only a recent window is worse than no replay at all. In few-shot evaluation the same memory reaches 91.6% on 5-way 1-shot mini-ImageNet, above a task-specific baseline, while a harder 500-way regime exposes the true difficulty. In the second system, the same surprise signal, computed in a shared text-image space, modulates the behaviour of a vision-language model: it answers assertively when a concept is known, hedges when it is partially familiar, and refuses to identify the object and asks for an explanation when it is novel, learning the concept from a single user utterance. The external detector separates known from novel concepts at an AUROC of 0.966 (95% CI +/-0.024), far above the model's own verbalised confidence (0.618), while its token-level confidence sits below chance under greedy decoding; after a sleep phase that empties the fast store, the system recalls 99.2% of fifty taught facts from the consolidated store while a base model recovers none. We report both systems as proof-of-concept, with explicit limitations, and position the second against recent episodic-memory and personalised-VLM work.

Early failure prediction is important for long-horizon agents, as it enables timely intervention and can reduce inference and tool-use costs. Uncertainty quantification, such as verbal confidence and perplexity, offers a promising approach to detecting agent failures; however, it has not been explored whether these signals retain their discriminative power during the intermediate stages of long-horizon execution. We evaluate mainstream uncertainty signals on deep-research tasks and find that verbal confidence reliably distinguishes failures at trajectory completion, achieving a mean AUROC of 0.85, whereas all evaluated signals offer limited predictive value earlier in execution, with none exceeding a mean AUROC of 0.60 at 50% trajectory progress. We identify an underlying mechanism explaining this gap: path switching, where agents frequently abandon their current search direction in-trajectory, breaking the link between early signal and final outcome. These findings challenge the assumption that intermediate uncertainty can reliably guide early intervention. They also motivate a practical recommendation for agent harnesses in deep-research settings: use final-step confidence to decide whether to restart, an approach that our experiments find more effective than in-trajectory intervention.