Positional Segmentor-Guided Counterfactual Fine-Tuning for Spatially Localized Image Synthesis

Counterfactual generation for chest X-rays (CXR) aims to simulate plausible pathological changes while preserving patient-specific anatomy. However, diffusion-based editing methods often suffer from structural drift, where stable anatomical semantics propagate globally through attention and distort non-target regions, and unstable pathology expression, since subtle and localized lesions induce weak and noisy conditioning signals. We present an inference-time attention regulation framework for reliable counterfactual CXR synthesis. An anatomy-aware attention regularization module gates self-attention and anatomy-token cross-attention with organ masks, confining structural interactions to anatomical ROIs and reducing unintended distortions. A pathology-guided module enhances pathology-token cross-attention within target lung regions during early denoising and performs lightweight latent corrections driven by an attention-concentration energy, enabling controllable lesion localization and extent. Extensive evaluations on CXR datasets show improved anatomical consistency and more precise, controllable pathological edits compared with standard diffusion editing, supporting localized counterfactual analysis and data augmentation for downstream tasks.

Medical image analysis is often hindered by biased datasets, which can lead to biased models and limited clinical applicability. A promising strategy for mitigating such biases is to augment training data with synthetic images. Counterfactual (CF) generation is one such strategy, though the term is used in two different senses: in some works, CFs are produced through causality-based interventions derived from structural causal models, whereas in others, they are produced by non-causal image edits or conventional conditional generative models, such as altering anatomy or adding pathologies. In this work, we study this distinction and evaluate its practical consequences for medical image augmentation. We compare three conditioning strategies: $\textit{Deterministic}$, which changes selected variables while holding the remaining variables fixed; $\textit{Undirected}$, which updates variables according to learned statistical associations without assigning causal directions; and $\textit{Causal}$, which propagates interventions along a directed causal graph. We analyse how these choices affect the resulting images, and explore when causally grounded methods improve dataset augmentation or bring limited benefit. In particular, we assess downstream performance and fairness, where fairness refers to reduced sensitivity to dataset biases across sensitive subgroups. Our experiments demonstrate that using a causal approach to synthetic training data generation can lead to tangible benefits, with these insights offering valuable guidance to machine learning practitioners for the effective design of data generation protocols.

Counterfactual image generation answers questions about how a subject would have looked under retrospective, hypothetical scenarios. Recent methods have improved perceptual quality, identity preservation and faithfulness to an underlying causal model, but their adoption in healthcare is limited by scarce annotated data, distribution shift between datasets, and mismatches between pretrained generative models and those required for counterfactual inference. We propose specialisation, a data and parameter-efficient framework for adapting pretrained, non-causal generative models into causal mechanisms under distribution shift. Based on this framework, we train a radiology counterfactual image generation model, called RadCF, using latent flow matching. We validate our approach on three chest X-ray datasets spanning different dataset shifts, data volumes, and counterfactual questions, associated with challenging, highly-localised interventions. Our results show that RadCF and specialisation improve counterfactual soundness over existing methods while being data and parameter efficient, and that the resulting counterfactuals can detect and mitigate shortcut learning in a downstream medical classifier. Code is available at https://github.com/GSK-AI/RadCF/.