Fair splits flip the leaderboard: CHANRG reveals limited generalization in RNA secondary-structure prediction

Many deep learning approaches to RNA secondary structure prediction have recently been proposed. They typically output a weight matrix $W$ where $W_{ij}$ is an arbitrary weight for base $i$ pairing with base $j$. Converting this matrix to a predicted secondary structure or base-pairing probability matrix typically involves ad hoc and problematic downstream algorithms. Despite the importance of this conversion step, which we refer to as structure extraction, it has received relatively little attention in the literature. In this work, we analyze how the congruence between training and extraction methods affects prediction performance. To do this, we compare four extraction algorithms: a Nussinov-like dynamic programming method, maximum-weight graph matching and the greedy extraction algorithms used by SPOT-RNA and RiNALMo. These are evaluated on outputs from the pretrained RiNALMo model and three toy models trained in this paper: a differentiable Nussinov-like model, a binary cross-entropy (BCE) baseline, and a model that incorporates a novel symmetric doubly stochastic matrix (SDSM) normalization algorithm during training which allows it to output base-pairing probability matrices directly, without a separate extraction step. This SDSM normalization algorithm is differentiable and can be added inline to any deep learning model during training and evaluation. We find that the performance of each extraction method depends strongly on how the corresponding model was trained. Considering the toy models themselves, the SDSM model showed the strongest overall performance: it outperformed the BCE baseline under all four extraction algorithms and produced pre-extraction outputs closest to the ground truth. These results suggest that SDSM normalization is a tractable alternative to traditional structure extraction.

The accurate prediction of protein-RNA binding affinity remains an unsolved problem in structural biology, limiting opportunities in understanding gene regulation and designing RNA-targeting therapeutics. A central obstacle is the structural flexibility of RNA, as, unlike proteins, RNA molecules exist as dynamic conformational ensembles. Thus, committing to a single predicted structure discards information relevant to binding. Here, we show that this obstacle can be addressed by extracting pre-structural embeddings, which are intermediate representations from a biomolecular foundation model captured before the structure decoding step. Pre-structural embeddings implicitly encode conformational ensemble information without requiring predicted structures. We build ZeroFold, a transformer-based model that combines pre-structural embeddings from Boltz-2 for both protein and RNA molecules through a cross-modal attention mechanism to predict binding affinity directly from sequence. To support training and evaluation, we construct PRADB, a curated dataset of 2,621 unique protein-RNA pairs with experimentally measured affinities drawn from four complementary databases. On a held-out test set constructed with 40% sequence identity thresholds, ZeroFold achieves a Spearman correlation of 0.65, a value approaching the ceiling imposed by experimental measurement noise. Under progressively fairer evaluation conditions that control for training-set overlap, ZeroFold compares favourably with respect to leading structure-based and leading sequence-based predictors, with the performance gap widening as sequence similarity to competitor training data is reduced. These results illustrate how pre-structural embeddings offer a representation strategy for flexible biomolecules, opening a route to affinity prediction for protein-RNA pairs for which no structural data exist.

Accurate RNA structure modeling remains difficult because RNA backbones are highly flexible, non-canonical interactions are prevalent, and experimentally determined 3D structures are comparatively scarce. We introduce RiboSphere, a framework that learns discrete geometric representations of RNA by combining vector quantization with flow matching. Our design is motivated by the modular organization of RNA architecture: complex folds are composed from recurring structural motifs. RiboSphere uses a geometric transformer encoder trained using mean-centered coordinates and random rotation augmentation to produce geometry-aware features, which are discretized with finite scalar quantization (FSQ) into a finite vocabulary of latent codes. Conditioned on these discrete codes, a flow-matching decoder reconstructs atomic coordinates, enabling high-fidelity structure generation. We find that the learned code indices are enriched for specific RNA motifs, suggesting that the model captures motif-level compositional structure rather than acting as a purely compressive bottleneck. Across benchmarks, RiboSphere achieves strong performance in structure reconstruction (RMSD 1.25,Å, TM-score 0.84), and its pretrained discrete representations transfer effectively to inverse folding and RNA--ligand binding prediction, with robust generalization in data-scarce regimes. Code is available at https://github.com/Zhangz312/RiboSphere.