Explainable Threat Attribution for IoT Networks Using Conditional SHAP and Flow Behavior Modelling

Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS) in Internet of Things (IoT) environments face significant challenges due to data heterogeneity, lack of labeled data, and limited model interpretability. Federated Learning (FL) offers a privacy-preserving solution; however, existing approaches such as SOH-FL suffer from two key limitations: reliance on a manually tuned aggregation parameter γ and lack of explainability in model predictions. In this paper, we propose XAI-SOH-FL, an enhanced framework that integrates adaptive aggregation and explainable artificial intelligence into the SOH-FL paradigm. First, we introduce a dynamic γ selection mechanism based on similarity thresholding, enabling the aggregation process to adapt to evolving data distributions. Second, Bayesian Optimization is employed to automatically determine optimal γ values, eliminating the need for manual tuning. Third, SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) is incorporated to provide feature-level interpretability for intrusion detection decisions. Experimental evaluation on the CICIDS2017 dataset demonstrates that the proposed approach achieves an accuracy of 94.12% and an F1-score of 0.92, outperforming the baseline SOH-FL model while converging in fewer communication rounds. Furthermore, SHAP-based analysis reveals that flow-level features such as Flow Duration and Packet Length significantly influence model predictions. These results indicate that XAI-SOH-FL provides an effective balance between accuracy, adaptability, and interpretability in heterogeneous IoT environments.

Intrusion detection in IoT and industrial networks requires models that can detect rare attacks at low false-positive rates while remaining reliable under evolving traffic and limited labels. Existing IDS solutions often report strong in-distribution accuracy, but they may degrade when evaluated on future traffic, unseen (zero-day) attack families, or adversarial feature manipulations, and many systems provide limited evidence to support analyst triage. To address these gaps, we propose ThreatFormer- IDS, a Transformer-based sequence modeling framework that converts flow records into time-ordered windows and learns contextual representations for robust intrusion screening. The method combines (i) weighted supervised learning for imbalanced detection, (ii) masked self-supervised learning to improve representation stability under drift and sparse labels, (iii) PGDbased adversarial training with scale-normalized perturbations to strengthen resilience against feature-level evasion, and (iv) Integrated Gradients attribution to highlight influential time steps and features for each alert. On the ToN IoT benchmark with chronological evaluation, ThreatFormer-IDS achieves AUCROC 0.994, AUC-PR 0.956, and Recall@1%FPR 0.910, outperforming strong tree-based and sequence baselines. Under a zero-day protocol with held-out attack families, it maintains superior generalization (AUC-PR 0.721, Recall@1%FPR 0.783). Robustness tests further show slower degradation in AUCPR as the adversarial budget increases, confirming improved stability under bounded perturbations. Overall, ThreatFormer- IDS provides a unified, deployment-oriented IDS pipeline that balances detection quality, zero-day behavior, robustness, and explainability.

Machine-learning intrusion-detection studies commonly emphasize predictive accuracy while treating explanation generation as a computationally free post-processing step. This study jointly evaluates predictive effectiveness, explanation cost, local explanation stability, and selective explanation for binary Internet of Things (IoT) intrusion detection. A leakage-safe CICIoT2023 corpus was constructed using exact 39-feature hashes, non-finite-value handling, exact-feature deduplication, conservative label-collision removal, and deterministic hash-level partitioning. Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Random Forest, and XGBoost were evaluated on natural and balanced test distributions. TreeSHAP cost was measured, stability was assessed under prediction-preserving perturbations, and validation-calibrated policies were used to allocate explanation workload. XGBoost provided the strongest overall predictive profile, while Random Forest produced the lowest false-positive rate. At 5,000 samples, TreeSHAP required 700.759 s for Random Forest and 1.471 s for XGBoost. Random Forest showed the strongest overall base-level explanation stability; XGBoost retained high rank and directional consistency but showed greater top-feature turnover and attribution-magnitude drift. On the balanced test, about 90% false-negative explanation coverage permitted 28-32% compute savings, while about 95% coverage permitted 15-23% savings. Savings were much smaller under the attack-heavy natural prevalence. These results show that operationally useful explainable IoT intrusion detection depends on predictive quality, explanation cost, local stability, workload prevalence, and selective invocation rather than detection accuracy alone.