Analysing LLM Persona Generation and Fairness Interpretation in Polarised Geopolitical Contexts

It has generally been assumed that geopolitical bias in language models originates from the training data used during the pre-training phase. We tested seven open-weight LLM pairs consisting of the base model (pre-training only) and the chat model (pre-training and post-training) from seven labs on a paired-scenario forced-choice probe over 28 country pairs in English, French, and Chinese, and found that geopolitical bias originates in post-training rather than in pre-training. Across seven AI labs, six showed shifts in the direction associated with the country or region of the model developer after post-training. This shift is strongest in Alibaba's Qwen 2.5: while the base is neutral on China-favourability (-0.15 log-odds, p=0.15), the post-trained chat variant is at +2.91 (p<10^-4), an 18x shift in odds. We also observe shifts in biases toward other countries across all models. Additionally, the magnitude of this shift depends on the language used to prompt the model: the French-made Mistral becomes pro-France only under French prompting (FR-EN shift +1.91, p<10^-4). These findings suggest that geopolitical preferences in language models are not simply inherited from large-scale internet data but are actively shaped during post-training, highlighting the need for greater transparency, auditing, and oversight of alignment processes that influence how models represent nations, cultures, and political perspectives.

Measuring political bias in large language models (LLMs) remains challenging as it can manifest through subtle differences in framing, argumentation, and legal reasoning that are difficult to capture with a single metric. In this work, we introduce POLI-BIAS, a counterfactual framework for measuring whether LLMs treat legally equivalent conflict scenarios differently depending on the countries involved. POLI-BIAS compares responses to paired prompts in which country identities are systematically swapped across diverse geopolitical relationships, legal violations, and reasoning tasks. Rather than reducing bias to a single judgment, our framework decomposes response disparities into five interpretable dimensions, revealing how and where unequal treatment manifests. Across 5,600 prompt pairs and seven open-weight LLMs from diverse model families and sizes, we find that models treat countries in active conflict or tension less evenly than fictional or uncontested countries, describing, evaluating, and defending equivalent actions differently. Our results thus establish POLI-BIAS as a fine-grained framework for auditing political even-handedness in LLMs.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in politically sensitive contexts, raising concerns about their susceptibility to ideological biases. In this work, we examine how synthetic persona conditioning shapes ideological expression across seven open-weight instruction-tuned models (7B-72B parameters) using the Political Compass Test (62 statements) as a standardized behavioral probe. Across three studies involving 200,000 synthetic personas and more than 260 million model responses, we analyze implicit and explicit malleability, as well as theme-associated variations. We find that: (i) larger models exhibit broader implicit ideological coverage, increasing from 14-35% for 7-8B models to up to 49% for 70B+ models; (ii) explicit ideological priming induces large and statistically significant shifts, with right-authoritarian cues moving all models in the intended direction and producing larger effects in most model-axis comparisons; (iii) left-libertarian priming produces more heterogeneous responses, including counter-directional economic shifts in three of four 7-8B models, while all 70B+ models move in the intended direction; and (iv) theme-associated semantic content in persona descriptions is linked to systematic and interpretable directional shifts in ideological space. While our results identify an upstream mechanism through which persona conditioning can alter model responses under a standardized ideological probe, we do not test whether such shifts affect users beliefs, decisions, or political behavior. Our findings are best understood as evidence of ideological malleability at the generation layer, highlighting the need to account for interactional factors when evaluating political neutrality, fairness, and safety in English-prompted, persona-conditioned language models.