MedObvious: Exposing the Medical Moravec's Paradox in VLMs via Clinical Triage

Consistency under paraphrase, the property that semantically equivalent prompts yield identical predictions, is increasingly used as a proxy for reliability when deploying medical vision-language models (VLMs). We show this proxy is fundamentally flawed: a model can achieve perfect consistency by relying on text patterns rather than the input image. We introduce a four-quadrant per-sample safety taxonomy that jointly evaluates consistency (stable predictions across paraphrased prompts) and image reliance (predictions that change when the image is removed). Samples are classified as Ideal (consistent and image-reliant), Fragile (inconsistent but image-reliant), Dangerous (consistent but not image-reliant), or Worst (inconsistent and not image-reliant). Evaluating five medical VLM configurations across two chest X-ray datasets (MIMIC-CXR, PadChest), we find that LoRA fine-tuning dramatically reduces flip rates but shifts a majority of samples into the Dangerous quadrant: LLaVA-Rad Base achieves a 1.5% flip rate on PadChest while 98.5% of its samples are Dangerous. Critically, Dangerous samples exhibit high accuracy (up to 99.6%) and low entropy, making them invisible to standard confidence-based screening. We observe a negative correlation between flip rate and Dangerous fraction (r = -0.89, n=10) and recommend that deployment evaluations always pair consistency checks with a text-only baseline: a single additional forward pass that exposes the false reliability trap.

Medical vision--language models (VLMs) are usually evaluated on intact image--question pairs, but trustworthy clinical use requires a stronger property: a model must recognise when the evidential basis for an answer has failed. We study this through silent failures under perturbed evidence, where a vision-required medical question is paired with a false premise, wording perturbation, knowledge-only rewrite, or ROI-corrupted image, yet the model returns a fluent non-refusal answer. We introduce medvigil, a 300-case evaluation suite drawn from four public medical VQA sources, supervised end to end by four board-certified radiologists: every gold answer, refusal option, candidate-answer set, paraphrase, false-premise trap, ROI box, and clinical risk tier is clinician-authored. Two attending radiologists annotate every case in parallel, a senior radiologist consolidates the released manifest, and a separate fourth radiologist independent of construction answers every probe to provide the human reference baseline. The release contains 2556 MCQ probes, 240 counterfactual triplets, physician-adjudicated risk-tier and answerability flags, ROI boxes, and a paired open-ended variant. We report seven correctness-conditioned audit metrics that summarise into the medvigil Composite Score (MCS), and audit 16 vision-capable models plus two text-only baselines. The independent radiologist scores MCS 83.3 at silent-failure rate 5.8%, leaving a 14.1-point composite headroom above the strongest audited model (Claude Opus 4.7 at 69.2). The benchmark and evaluation harness are publicly released.

Vision-language models (VLMs) are increasingly adapted through domain-specific fine-tuning, yet it remains unclear whether this improves reasoning beyond superficial visual cues, particularly in high-stakes domains like medicine. We evaluate four paired open-source VLMs (LLaVA vs. LLaVA-Med; Gemma vs. MedGemma) across four medical imaging tasks of increasing difficulty: brain tumor, pneumonia, skin cancer, and histopathology classification. We find that performance degrades toward near-random levels as task difficulty increases, indicating limited clinical reasoning. Medical fine-tuning provides no consistent advantage, and models are highly sensitive to prompt formulation, with minor changes causing large swings in accuracy and refusal rates. To test whether closed-form VQA suppresses latent knowledge, we introduce a description-based pipeline where models generate image descriptions that a text-only model (GPT-5.1) uses for diagnosis. This recovers a limited additional signal but remains bounded by task difficulty. Analysis of vision encoder embeddings further shows that failures stem from both weak visual representations and downstream reasoning. Overall, medical VLM performance is fragile, prompt-dependent, and not reliably improved by domain-specific fine-tuning.