cs.CLMar 7, 2026

Large Language Models Unpack Complex Political Opinions through Target-Stance Extraction

Authors: Özgür Togay, Javier Garcia-Bernardo, Florian Kunneman, Anastasia Giachanou

Organizations: Department of Methodology and Statistics, Utrecht University · Department of Languages, Literature and Communication, Utrecht University

Abstract

Political polarization emerges from a complex interplay of beliefs about policies, figures, and issues. However, most computational analyses reduce discourse to coarse partisan labels, overlooking how these beliefs interact. This is especially evident in online political conversations, which are often nuanced and cover a wide range of subjects, making it difficult to automatically identify the target of discussion and the opinion expressed toward them. In this study, we investigate whether Large Language Models (LLMs) can address this challenge through Target-Stance Extraction (TSE), a recent natural language processing task that combines target identification and stance detection, enabling more granular analysis of political opinions. For this, we construct a dataset of 1,084 Reddit posts from r/NeutralPolitics, covering 138 distinct political targets and evaluate a range of proprietary and open-source LLMs using zero-shot, few-shot, and context-augmented prompting strategies. Our results show that the best models perform comparably to highly trained human annotators and remain robust on challenging posts with low inter-annotator agreement. These findings demonstrate that LLMs can extract complex political opinions with minimal supervision, offering a scalable tool for computational social science and political text analysis.

Figures & tables

Appendix figures & tables1 asset

Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.

Appendix

Explore similar work

Aug 29, 2026

How Identity and Opinion Shape Political Sycophancy in LLMs

As Large Language Models (LLMs) increasingly encourage users to disclose personal profiles for tailored assistance, measuring their political alignment becomes increasingly important. However, many existing benchmarks for assessing political behavior rely on closed-ended questions and do not fully capture how a model's stance may adapt to user-provided context during interaction. We introduce a framework that disentangles two distinct triggers of political sycophancy: opinion (aligning with explicit narratives) and identity (stereotyping based on demographic labels). Using 450 manually-checked political dilemmas as controlled probes, we evaluate 13 instruction-tuned LLMs. We uncover a dissociation: a model's susceptibility to explicit opinions does not necessarily predict its susceptibility to identity cues, and vice versa. When both signals are present, their effects are generally sub-additive rather than simply additive. Additionally, system-level personas primarily shift a model's baseline stance while having limited effect on the stance shift caused by user opinion or identity. Ultimately, our results suggest that LLM political stance is interactively and steerably vulnerable rather than being a fixed trait, highlighting how personalization may amplify identity- or opinion-conditioned shifts in the model's behaviors.
Mar 11, 2026

LLMs Can Infer Political Alignment from Online Conversations

Due to the correlational structure in our traits such as identities, cultures, and political attitudes, seemingly innocuous preferences like following a band or using a specific slang can reveal private traits. This possibility, especially when combined with massive, public social data and advanced computational methods, poses a fundamental privacy risk. As our data exposure online and the rapid advancement of AI are increasing the risk of misuse, it is critical to understand the capacity of large language models (LLMs) to exploit such potential. Here, using online discussions on DebateOrg and Reddit, we show that LLMs can reliably infer hidden political alignment, significantly outperforming traditional machine learning models. Prediction accuracy further improves as we aggregate multiple text-level inferences into a user-level prediction, and as we use more politics-adjacent domains. We demonstrate that LLMs leverage words that are highly predictive of political alignment while not being explicitly political. Our findings underscore the capacity and risks of LLMs for exploiting socio-cultural correlates.
Mar 1, 2026

Reasoning Boosts Opinion Alignment in LLMs

Opinion modeling aims to capture individual or group political preferences, enabling applications such as digital democracies, where models could help shape fairer and more popular policies. Given their versatility, strong generalization capabilities, and demonstrated success across diverse text-to-text applications, large language models (LLMs) are natural candidates for this task. However, due to their statistical nature and limited causal understanding, they tend to produce biased opinions when prompted naively. In this work, we study whether reasoning can improve opinion alignment. Motivated by the recent advancement in mathematical reasoning enabled by reinforcement learning (RL), we train models to produce profile-consistent answers through structured reasoning. We evaluate our approach on three datasets covering U.S., European, and Swiss politics. Results indicate that reasoning enhances opinion modeling and is competitive with strong baselines, but does not fully remove bias, highlighting the need for additional mechanisms to build faithful political digital twins using LLMs. By releasing both our method and datasets, we establish a solid baseline to support future research on LLM opinion alignment.