Conformalized Transfer Learning for Li-ion Battery State of Health Forecasting under Manufacturing and Usage Variability

The deployment of reliable lithium-ion battery management systems is crucial for accelerating electrification, yet the joint prognosis of State of Health (SOH) and Remaining Useful Life (RUL) remains severely hindered by task heteroscedasticity. Conventional multi-task learning frameworks fail to balance the bounded, low-variance noise of SOH estimation with the unbounded, nonlinearly expanding uncertainty of long-term RUL predictions. Here, we present the Rotary SOH-Injected Prior Battery Transformer (RoSIP-Batt), a unified co-estimation framework that resolves these optimization conflicts. By formulating joint prediction as a Bayesian multi-task objective, RoSIP-Batt introduces a homoscedastic uncertainty weighting mechanism to dynamically scale task-specific gradients based on learned residual noise levels. The architecture leverages decoupled dual classification tokens and a per-dimension gated fusion mechanism, secured by a gradient-detachment operator to prevent high-variance RUL updates from corrupting the stable SOH representation space. To capture electrochemical degradation patterns without relying on absolute cycle steps, Rotary Position Embedding (RoPE) is incorporated into a shared Transformer backbone to model translation-invariant relative temporal profiles. Crucially, the intermediate SOH estimate is directly injected into the RUL regression head as a physical degradation prior. Evaluations across the NASA, MIT-Stanford, and HUST datasets show that RoSIP-Batt significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, reducing SOH estimation error to 1.994% MAE on NASA and restricting RUL prediction error to 62.85 cycles on Stanford. These findings establish RoSIP-Batt as a highly generalizable, computationally efficient solution suitable for real-time embedded BMS deployment.

Degradation prognosis for lithium-ion cells requires forecasting the state-of-health (SOH) trajectory over future cycles. Existing data-driven approaches can produce trajectory outputs through direct regression, but lack a mechanism to propagate degradation dynamics forward in time. This paper formulates battery degradation prognosis as a world model problem, encoding raw voltage, current, and temperature time-series from each cycle into a latent state and propagating it forward via a learned dynamics transition to produce a future trajectory spanning 80 cycles. To investigate whether electrochemical knowledge improves the learned dynamics, a Single Particle Model (SPM) constraint is incorporated into the training loss. Three configurations are evaluated on the Severson LiFePO4 (LFP) dataset of 138 cells. Iterative rollout halves the trajectory forecast error compared to direct regression from the same encoder. The SPM constraint improves prediction at the degradation knee where the resistance to SOH relationship is most applicable, without changing aggregate accuracy.

Accurately predicting the state-of-health (SOH) and remaining useful life (RUL) of lithium-ion batteries is crucial for ensuring the safe and efficient operation of electric vehicles while minimizing associated risks. However, current deep learning methods are limited in their ability to selectively extract features and model time dependencies for these two parameters. Moreover, most existing methods rely on traditional recurrent neural networks, which have inherent shortcomings in long-term time-series modeling. To address these issues, this paper proposes a multi-task targeted learning framework for SOH and RUL prediction, which integrates multiple neural networks, including a multi-scale feature extraction module, an improved extended LSTM, and a dual-stream attention module. First, a feature extraction module with multi-scale CNNs is designed to capture detailed local battery decline patterns. Secondly, an improved extended LSTM network is employed to enhance the model's ability to retain long-term temporal information, thus improving temporal relationship modeling. Building on this, the dual-stream attention module-comprising polarized attention and sparse attention to selectively focus on key information relevant to SOH and RUL, respectively, by assigning higher weights to important features. Finally, a many-to-two mapping is achieved through the dual-task layer. To optimize the model's performance and reduce the need for manual hyperparameter tuning, the Hyperopt optimization algorithm is used. Extensive comparative experiments on battery aging datasets demonstrate that the proposed method reduces the average RMSE for SOH and RUL predictions by 111.3% and 33.0%, respectively, compared to traditional and state-of-the-art methods.