Sep 30, 2026, eess.SPJ/K move · Enter open · S save
Sizhe Ma, Katherine A. Flanigan, Mario Bergés
Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University 5000 Forbes Ave., Pittsburgh, PA USA 15213
Digital twins increasingly support downstream analytical tasks that depend on time-series data, motivating interest in time-series foundation models (TSFMs) as scalable backbones. However, TSFMs are primarily pretrained for temporal continuation and often underperform on unseen tasks such as regression, and systematic empirical comparisons against state-of-the-art dedicated models in digital twin contexts remain limited. This paper makes three contributions. First, we benchmark five well-known TSFMs with frozen backbones on remaining useful life (RUL) prediction using the C-MAPSS dataset, finding that multivariate architectures substantially outperform univariate ones, particularly under varying operating conditions. This raises a deeper question: when cross-channel dependencies can be modeled through pretrained weights, target-task adaptation, and digital twin-derived representations, how much does each contribute, and are they complementary? Second, we propose a topology-informed fusion approach in which topological constraints, derived from the asset structure the digital twin stores among its information models, explicitly shape cross-attention, so that fused representations respect the physical system's local connectivity rather than relying on unconstrained all-to-all interactions. Third, we conduct an ablation study across C-MAPSS subsets of varying operational complexity that isolates the three sources and their interactions. The sources prove complementary rather than redundant, and topology-constrained attention outperforms unconstrained fusion, though by a small margin, enabling a frozen TSFM informed by digital twin representations to remain competitive or in some cases exceed state-of-the-art performance on this regression task.