Grokking as a Falsifiable Finite-Size Transition

Neural network grokking -- the abrupt memorization-to-generalization transition -- challenges our understanding of learning dynamics. Through finite-size scaling of gradient avalanche dynamics across eight model scales, we find that grokking is a dimensional phase transition: effective dimensionality~$D$ crosses from sub-diffusive (subcritical, $D < 1$) to super-diffusive (supercritical, $D > 1$) at generalization onset, exhibiting self-organized criticality (SOC). Crucially, $D$ reflects gradient field geometry, not network architecture: synthetic i.i.d.\ Gaussian gradients maintain $D \approx 1$ regardless of graph topology, while real training exhibits dimensional excess from backpropagation correlations. The grokking-localized $D(t)$ crossing -- robust across topologies -- offers new insight into the trainability of overparameterized networks.

Abrupt transitions between distinct dynamical regimes are a hallmark of complex systems. Grokking in deep neural networks provides a striking example -- an abrupt transition from memorization to generalization long after training accuracy saturates -- yet robust macroscopic signatures of this transition remain elusive. Here we introduce TDU--OFC (Thresholded Diffusion Update--Olami-Feder-Christensen), an offline avalanche probe that converts gradient snapshots into cascade statistics and extracts a macroscopic observable -- the time-resolved effective cascade dimension $D(t)$ -- via grokking-aligned finite-size scaling. Across Transformers trained on modular addition and MLPs trained on XOR, we discover a localized dynamical crossing of the Gaussian diffusion baseline $D=1$ precisely at the generalization transition. The crossing direction is task-dependent: modular addition descends through $D=1$ (approaching from $D>1$), while XOR ascends (from $D<1$). This opposite-direction convergence is consistent with attraction toward a candidate shared critical manifold, rather than trivial residence near $D \approx 1$. Negative controls confirm this picture: ungrokked runs remain supercritical ($D>1$) and never enter the post-transition regime. In addition, avalanche distributions exhibit heavy tails and finite-size scaling consistent with the dimensional exponent extracted from $D(t)$. Shadow-probe controls ($α_{\mathrm{train}}=0$) confirm that $D(t)$ is non-invasive, and grokked trajectories diverge from ungrokked ones in $D(t)$ some $100$--$200$ epochs before the behavioral transition.

We trained 64 independently seeded networks in four configurations, continuing each to sustained convergence or a 40,000-epoch ceiling. We then asked whether an RSB-inspired distribution of pairwise weight overlaps changes across the grokking transition. It is the alignment step, not the overlap statistic, that determines what this registered probe can report. The registered implementation permutes hidden units without the corresponding bias and head-internal permutations and therefore does not preserve the network function. Every q_wt value computed through this alignment inherits the defect; q_fn does not, because it is computed from predictions of the unpermuted models. The numerical-precision requirement also failed, and an audit found protocol deviations. Consequently, the pre-registered rule gives no verdict: registered outcome UNDETERMINED (reason code C0_INSTRUMENT_INVALID). These data provide neither a confirmatory null nor a validated reading of the Parisi order parameter. Only frac40 cleared the 12/16 checkpoint-completeness requirement. For this configuration, a post-hoc criterion applied to the same data gave a Hartigan-dip interval containing zero (95% CI for Delta dip = [-0.017, 0.034]), whereas the overlap standard deviation increased by a factor of about 5.6. A post-hoc calibration assigns the dip test zero power at the simulated separations; the interval is therefore uninformative, not evidence of no change. The standard-deviation ratio is the only statistic here with power at the observed effect. Ensemble loss was near-flat only under the pre-specified 1% threshold. Finally, grokking rates of 0/16, 11/16 and 16/16 remain descriptive because train fraction is confounded with split identity.