A CDF-First Framework for Free-Form Density Estimation

Density estimation is a central primitive in probabilistic modeling, yet continuous, discrete, and mixed-variable domains are often treated by separate objectives, limiting the ability to exploit a common statistical structure across data types. Continuous score-based methods rely on log-density gradients, while discrete extensions typically use concrete score whose unbounded targets become unstable near low-probability states. We introduce Constant-Target Energy Matching (CTEM), a unified energy-based framework for density estimation on general state spaces. CTEM replaces ordinary density-ratio regression with a bounded energy-difference transform and derives from it a sample-only training objective with the constant target 1. The learned scalar potential recovers log p without partition-function estimation or explicit unbounded ratio regression. Across continuous, discrete, and mixed-variable benchmarks, CTEM substantially improves density estimation over competitive baselines and yields higher-quality samples under standard sampling procedures.

Discrete probability laws underpin statistical modeling, yet the catalog of interpretable distributions has expanded only gradually through centuries of case-by-case mathematical derivations. We introduce symbolic density estimation (SDE), an unsupervised framework that automatically recovers closed-form probability mass functions by composing elementary analytic operations within a structured search space. Our method integrates domain-specific structural priors with evolutionary search and a validity-aware inference stage, and it extends to richer distribution families such as zero inflation and finite mixtures. To support systematic evaluation and future research, we contribute a benchmark dataset spanning a broad collection of commonly used discrete distributions. The proposed algorithm recovers all benchmark families with accurate parameter estimates. A real data application shows that it identifies concise and interpretable mixture models that improve goodness-of-fit over standard models.

Conditional density estimation (CDE) - recovering the full conditional distribution of a response given tabular covariates - is essential in settings with heteroscedasticity, multimodality, or asymmetric uncertainty. Recent tabular foundation models, such as TabPFN and TabICL, naturally produce predictive distributions, but their effectiveness as general-purpose CDE methods has not been systematically evaluated, unlike their performance for point prediction, which is well studied. We benchmark three tabular foundation model variants against a diverse set of parametric, tree-based, and neural CDE baselines on 39 real-world datasets, across training sizes from 50 to 20,000, using six metrics covering density accuracy, calibration, and computation time. Across all sample sizes, foundation models achieve the best CDE loss, log-likelihood, and CRPS on the large majority of datasets tested. Calibration is competitive at small sample sizes but, for some metrics and datasets, lags behind task-specific neural baselines at larger sample sizes, suggesting that post-hoc recalibration may be a valuable complement. In a photometric redshift case study using SDSS DR18, TabPFN exposed to 50,000 training galaxies outperforms all baselines trained on the full 500,000-galaxy dataset. Taken together, these results establish tabular foundation models as strong off-the-shelf conditional density estimators.