Organizations: Center for Intelligent and Networked Systems, Department of Automation, BNRist, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China · Urban Mobility Lab, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA · Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology Centre, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 138602, Singapore
Accurate occupancy information is essential for closed-loop occupant-centric control (OCC) in smart buildings. However, existing vision-based occupancy measurement methods often struggle to provide stable and accurate measurements in real indoor environments, and their implications for downstream HVAC control remain insufficiently studied. To achieve Net Zero emissions by 2050, this paper presents an experimental study of large language models (LLMs)-enhanced vision-based indoor occupancy measurement and its impact on OCC-enabled HVAC operation. Detection-only, tracking-based, and LLM-based refinement pipelines are compared under identical conditions using real surveillance data collected from a research laboratory in China, with frame-level manual ground-truth annotations. Results show that tracking-based methods improve temporal stability over detection-only measurement, while LLM-based refinement further improves occupancy measurement performance and reduces false unoccupied prediction. The best-performing pipeline, YOLOv8+DeepSeek, achieves an accuracy of 0.8824 and an F1-score of 0.9320. This pipeline is then integrated into an HVAC supervisory model predictive control framework in OpenStudio-EnergyPlus. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed framework can support more efficient OCC operation, achieving a substantial HVAC energy-saving potential of 17.94%. These findings provide an effective methodology and practical foundation for future research in AI-enhanced smart building operations.
Figures & tables
List of Abbreviations
CO 2
Carbon Dioxide
DL
Deep Learning
DeepSORT
Deep Simple Online and Realtime Tracking
HVAC
Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning
IEQ
Indoor Environmental Quality
LLM
Large Language Model
Table 1
Figure 1: Overview of the proposed occupancy measurement and control integration framework.
Figure 2: Floor plan and representative views of the experimental laboratory environment at FIT, Tsinghua University.
Counting (Regression)
Occupied/Unoccupied (Classification)
Model
nframes
MAE
RMSE
Accuracy
Precision
Recall
F1
FN
FP
YOLOv8-only
20722
1.0984
1.5827
0.8125
0.8796
0.9051
0.8922
1685
2201
YOLOv8 +DeepSORT
20722
1.1653
1.6348
0.7964
0.8728
0.8926
0.8826
1907
2311
YOLOv8 +ByteTrack
20722
1.0502
1.5419
0.8193
0.8789
0.9154
0.8962
1503
2241
YOLOv8 +VLM (Ollama/LLaVA)
20722
0.9648
1.4216
0.8525
0.9021
0.9287
0.9152
1266
1790
YOLOv8 +LLM (DeepSeek)
20722
0.8923
1.3124
0.8824
0.9245
0.9396
0.9320
1073
1363
Table 1: Global evaluation metrics across models.
Model
Actual: Unoccupied
Actual: Occupied
Pred: Unocc. (TN)
Pred: Occ. (FP)
Pred: Unocc. (FN)
Pred: Occ. (TP)
YOLOv8-only
760
2201
1685
16076
YOLOv8 +DeepSORT
650
2311
1907
15854
YOLOv8 +ByteTrack
720
2241
1503
16258
YOLOv8 +VLM (Ollama/LLaVA)
1171
1790
1266
16495
YOLOv8 +LLM (DeepSeek)
1598
1363
1073
16688
Table 2: Confusion matrices for occupied/unoccupied classification (Occupied = positive class). Totals satisfy (TN+FP)=2961 and (FN+TP)=17761 .
Model
ID-switches
Fragmentation
YOLOv8-only
–
–
YOLOv8 + DeepSORT
2143
1687
YOLOv8 + ByteTrack
1326
1048
YOLOv8 +VLLM (Ollama/LLaVA)
–
–
YOLOv8 + LLM (DeepSeek)
–
–
Table 3: Tracking stability metrics for identity-based occupancy measurement pipelines.
Item
Value
Weather file
Beijing, China (EnergyPlus EPW)
Simulation time step
5 minutes
Simulation horizon
Annual (extrapolated from measured days)
Comfort model
Fanger PMV/PPD
Occupancy aggregation
Frame-level → 5-minute intervals
Occupied state
Occupied if count ≥1
Table 4: Simulation and MPC supervisory control parameters.
Figure 3: Monthly HVAC cooling and heating energy consumption under baseline and OCC operation.
Figure 4: Monthly average predicted percentage dissatisfied (PPD) under baseline and OCC operation.
Scenario
Avg. PPD (%)
Annual Energy Consumption (kWh)
Savings vs. Baseline (%)
Cooling
Heating
Total HVAC
Cooling
Heating
Total HVAC
Baseline
10.4699
1475.1
14127.8
15602.9
0.00
0.00
0.00
MPC (YOLOv8-only)
12.0762
1403.1
12421.5
13824.6
4.88
12.08
11.40
MPC (DeepSORT)
13.3376
1403.3
12047.9
13451.2
4.87
14.72
13.79
MPC (ByteTrack)
10.7403
1408.1
13089.0
14497.1
4.54
7.35
7.09
MPC (Ollama/LLaVA)
9.6414
1346.4
11811.5
13157.9
8.72
16.40
15.67
Table 5: Annual average predicted percentage dissatisfied (PPD), HVAC energy consumption, and savings relative to the baseline.
Building automation systems generate rich sensor data yet remain insight-poor because heterogeneous point naming, missing metadata, and fragmented documentation obstruct their operational use. This systematic review analyses and codes 66 peer-reviewed studies on large language models (LLMs) for HVAC operations published between 2023 and March 2026. Each study is classified across five application families and three LLM method families and assessed for evidence realism, deployment readiness, and the responsibility boundary between the LLM and physical HVAC decisions. The corpus is concentrated in building energy modelling (BEM, 32 of 66 papers), while load forecasting remains too sparse for subfield-level conclusions. Only four studies reach pilot-level evidence, and none reports sustained operational deployment. No study was classified as ready-now for industry adoption; three were near-term and 63 research-only. Nevertheless, several bounded, human-in-the-loop uses merit near-term trials, including point-name normalisation, document-grounded operator support, BEM workflow assistance, and advisory interfaces around physics-based controllers. Conventional machine learning (ML), model predictive control (MPC), reinforcement learning (RL) and ontology-based tools remain more adopted for high-frequency control, short-horizon numerical forecasting, and well-posed ontology mapping, while autonomous agentic operation and unvalidated occupant proxies remain research-stage. Current evidence therefore supports LLMs primarily as semantic and workflow layers rather than autonomous HVAC controllers. Future work should prioritise field-validated benchmarks, orchestration evaluation under operational constraints, and LLM-MPC/RL architectures with bounded latency and verifiable safety properties.
Recent indoor occupancy prediction methods adopt Gaussian primitives as a sparse 3D representation for computational efficiency. However, their training relies on voxel classification, which imposes only local constraints and lacks global supervision on the distribution of the primitives. Therefore, they inevitably predict spurious primitives in empty regions, undermining both representational and computational efficiency. To address this, we propose Feed-forward Likelihood Maximization (FLM), a novel framework that reformulates occupancy prediction as voxel distribution estimation. In FLM, a network is trained to predict a mixture model that maximizes the likelihood over ground-truth occupied voxels in a feed-forward manner. To enable end-to-end training of networks and voxelization of a standard mixture model, we define mixture weights as normalized primitive volumes to implicitly enforce simplex constraints and derive novel voxelization formulas. Based on FLM, our FLM-Occ, a novel method that is capable of relocating randomly initialized primitives over long distances to model a scene. On Occ-ScanNet, FLM-Occ achieves superior accuracy using only 32 superquadrics, 2.7% of the prior SoTA, while running 3.7 times faster.
Guangcheng Chen, Lihuang Fang, Huaqi Tao +3
Southern University of Science and Technology · Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Robotics and Computer Vision · Guangdong Laboratory of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Economy (Shenzhen)
Existing learning-based occupancy prediction methods rely on large-scale 3D annotations and generalize poorly across environments. We present FreeOcc, a training-free framework for open-vocabulary occupancy prediction from monocular or RGB-D sequences. Unlike prior approaches that require voxel-level supervision and ground-truth camera poses, FreeOcc operates without 3D annotations, pose ground truth, or any learning stage. FreeOcc incrementally builds a globally consistent occupancy map via a four-layer pipeline: a SLAM backbone estimates poses and sparse geometry; a geometrically consistent Gaussian update constructs dense 3D Gaussian maps; open-vocabulary semantics from off-the-shelf vision-language models are associated with Gaussian primitives; and a probabilistic Gaussian-to-occupancy projection produces dense voxel occupancy. Despite being entirely training-free and pose-agnostic, FreeOcc achieves over 2× improvements in IoU and mIoU on EmbodiedOcc-ScanNet compared to prior self-supervised methods. We further introduce ReplicaOcc, a benchmark for indoor open-vocabulary occupancy prediction, and show that FreeOcc transfers zero-shot to novel environments, substantially outperforming both supervised and self-supervised baselines. Project page: https://the-masses.github.io/freeocc-web/.
Zeyu Jiang, Changqing Zhou, Xingxing Zuo +1
The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou) · MBZUAI