cs.CVMar 24, 2026

BHCast: Unlocking Black Hole Plasma Dynamics from a Single Blurry Image with Long-Term Forecasting

Authors: Renbo Tu, Ali SaraerToosi, Nicholas S. Conroy, Gennady Pekhimenko, Aviad Levis

Organizations: University of Toronto · Vector Institute · University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign · NVIDIA

Abstract

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) delivered the first image of a black hole by capturing the light from its surrounding accretion flow, revealing structure but not dynamics. Simulations of black hole accretion dynamics are essential for interpreting EHT images but costly to generate and impractical for inference. Motivated by this bottleneck, BHCast presents a framework for forecasting black hole plasma dynamics from a single, blurry snapshot, such as those captured by the EHT. At its core, BHCast is a neural model that transforms a static image into forecasted future frames, revealing the underlying dynamics hidden within one snapshot. With a multi-scale pyramid loss, we demonstrate how autoregressive forecasting can simultaneously super-resolve and evolve a blurry frame into a coherent, high-resolution movie that remains stable over long time horizons. From forecasted dynamics, we can then extract interpretable spatio-temporal features, such as pattern speed (rotation rate) and pitch angle. Finally, BHCast uses gradient-boosting trees to recover black hole properties from these plasma features, including the spin and viewing inclination angle. The separation between forecasting and inference provides modular flexibility, interpretability, and robust uncertainty quantification. We demonstrate the effectiveness of BHCast on simulations of two distinct black hole accretion systems, Sagittarius A* and M87*, by testing on simulated frames blurred to EHT resolution and real EHT images of M87*. Ultimately, our methodology establishes a scalable paradigm for solving inverse problems, demonstrating the potential of learned dynamics to unlock insights from resolution-limited scientific data.

Figures & tables

Appendix figures & tables14 assets

Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.

Appendix

Explore similar work

Apr 28, 2026

Learning Neural Operator Surrogates for the Black Hole Accretion Code

General-relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GR-MHD) simulations are essential for studying black hole accretion, relativistic jets, and magnetic reconnection, yet their computational cost severely limits systematic parameter exploration. We investigate neural operator surrogates for two astrophysically relevant simulation scenarios produced by the Black Hole Accretion Code (BHAC). First, a Physics Informed Fourier Neural Operator (PINO) is trained on the special-relativistic resistive MHD (SRRMHD) evolution of the Orszag-Tang vortex over a range of resistivities spanning the Sweet-Parker and fast reconnection regimes. By embedding the governing equations as an additional loss term evaluated at finer temporal resolution than the available data supervision, the model learns dynamics at time steps where no simulation data is provided, enabling recovery of plasmoid formation that a data-only baseline trained on the same sparse snapshots fails to reproduce. To our knowledge, the present work is the first application of a physics informed neural operator to special relativistic resistive MHD, and the first to investigate the capability of such models to resolve plasmoid formation in SRRMHD. In a second line of investigation, an OFormer-style Transformer Neural Operator is trained on the evolution of spine-sheath relativistic jets created with BHAC, in special-relativistic MHD (SRMHD). The model is directly applied on the adaptive mesh, highlighting the need for linear attention due to long sequences. The neural surrogate model is capable of capturing most of the major details, especially in early predictions. To our knowledge, this constitutes the first application of a neural operator directly on a high resolution adaptive mesh refinement grid in the context of MHD simulations.
Jul 3, 2025

NeuralDMD: Interpretable Neural Representation of Dynamics from Sparse and Noisy Measurements

Many challenges in scientific imaging involve solving ill-posed inverse problems, where the goal is to recover spatio-temporal fields from indirect, noisy, and highly sparse measurements - often without access to ground truth data or reliable simulators. To address this challenging scenario, we present NeuralDMD, an interpretable, untrained (per-instance) reconstruction framework that combines neural implicit representations with Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) to reconstruct continuous spatio-temporal dynamics directly from measurements. NeuralDMD parameterizes DMD modes as continuous neural fields, and imposes a low-rank linear dynamics prior with spectral time evolution to enforce temporal continuity. This formulation enables both forecasting under sparsity, and yields interpretable modes and spectra. We find that NeuralDMD outperforms baselines on a wide variety of tasks: from weather data assimilation from sparse station observations to interferometric (Fourier domain) observations of Sagittarius A, the black hole at the center of our galaxy. Moreover, NeuralDMD remains stable when extrapolating into the future. While this framework is most naturally suited to linear dynamics, we show that it can be applied to nonlinear regimes, though with extrapolation performance that degrades with increasing nonlinearity. Together, these results show that NeuralDMD enables interpretable reconstruction and forecasting of spatio-temporal dynamics directly from sparse and indirect measurements without relying on numerical simulators or training data.
Jul 4, 2026

Transformers with Physics-Informed Encodings and Simulation-Based Inference for Robust Detection of Eccentric Binary Black Holes in Pulsar Timing Array Data

Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) provide a unique window into nanohertz gravitational waves (GWs), but extracting astrophysical parameters from noisy, long-baseline timing residuals remains computationally challenging with traditional Bayesian techniques due to the high dimensionality of the parameter space, complex and correlated noise models, and the cost of repeated likelihood evaluations. We introduce a Transformer with a physics-informed positional-encoding framework for the efficient inference of eccentric binary black holes in relativistic orbits from PTA data. Our approach embeds analytical GW phase evolution directly into the model through structured positional encodings, enabling the network to learn physically meaningful representations from raw PTA timing residuals. We then use generative models, including discrete and continuous conditional normalizing flows, to infer posterior distributions within a simulation-based inference framework. Across a range of signal-to-noise ratios, the proposed method achieves improved accuracy, sharper posteriors, and faster inference compared to physics-agnostic baselines. While presented for deterministic white-noise signals, the modular framework readily generalizes to realistic PTA analyses incorporating red noise and additional components. This work highlights the potential of physics-aware deep learning models as scalable alternatives to conventional inference pipelines for next-generation PTA datasets.