Agentic AI and Occupational Displacement: A Multi-Regional Task Exposure Analysis of Emerging Labor Market Disruption

A growing body of literature measures the extent to which occupations are exposed to AI, yet existing measures capture where AI could perform tasks rather than whether workers have actually adopted it. We introduce a distinct tier of exposure, delegated exposure, which records whether a worker has committed a task to AI by embedding it into a structured workflow. We operationalize this concept through the Agentic Adoption Index (AAI), measuring how closely an occupation's tasks align with the agentic routines that practitioners have built and shared. Using semantic embeddings of roughly 888,000 agent skill specifications from public GitHub repositories, we compute their similarity to nearly 18,000 O*NET task statements and aggregate these scores to the occupational level. We present three main findings. First, the occupations where task delegation concentrates differ sharply from those identified as most vulnerable by pre-AI automation frameworks. Second, the AAI aligns more closely with measures of technical capability than with measures of current conversational LLM use. Third, for occupations requiring a bachelor's degree or less, the AAI increases alongside average wage levels; however, this relationship reverses for occupations requiring a master's degree or higher, where adoption declines among higher earners. These patterns replicate on an independently collected corpus of agent skills from the Manus Skills Marketplace. This lower adoption among highly educated, high-earning workers may reflect tasks that inherently resist advance specification or professional discretion over the pacing of workflow codification. Distinguishing these mechanisms will require longitudinal measurement.

To anticipate socio-technical risks from AI agents, organizations need taxonomies to classify them. However, existing AI risk taxonomies focus on broad risks and do not capture job-specific risks introduced by agents. To address this gap, we make three main contributions. First, we developed a multi-layer framework from a literature review of AI agents. The framework models three core components and their interactions: agents, goals, and environment. Second, we embedded this framework in a structured prompt and applied it to descriptions of 2,078 job tasks from the O*NET database, producing 8,356 risk scenarios labeled by severity and deployment mode (automation or augmentation). We validated these scenarios with 45 workers across 10 job roles and an independent LLM judge, confirming their plausibility and alignment with job tasks. Finally, we extended an existing taxonomy to create a 15-category taxonomy of workplace AI agent risks that covers all our risk scenarios. Our analysis highlights four findings. First, augmentation is not inherently safe because overreliance on agents can gradually erode workers' skills and oversight. Second, Erroneous Agent Actions accounts for the largest share of risk scenarios and has the highest concentration of severe risks. Many arise at the human-agent boundary. Third, automation is associated mainly with organizational risks, while augmentation is associated mainly with risks to workers. Fourth, workers found our taxonomy easier to use for a risk classification task than two other taxonomies and preferred it in 64% of non-tied comparisons with a recent generative AI risk taxonomy. These findings show that workplace AI agent risks do not arise from agents alone; they also depend on how people work with agents and how agents are deployed. Safer workplaces require not only safer agents but also carefully designed human-AI agent collaboration.

35.2% of task time in world employment is at least partly delegable to AI agents in 2026, and only 2.5% can be handed over in full. Existing measures score exposure to generative AI, mostly for the United States. We build the Agent Delegability Index (ADI): two language models rate all 18,796 O*NET 30.2 task statements on a frozen, preregistered rubric of delegation levels and barriers; tasks are mapped to 433 ISCO-08 unit groups and weighted by ILOSTAT employment in 146 countries. Four findings. First, delegable employment rises with income, from 22.5% in low-income to 48.7% in high-income countries, a slope of 7.23 percentage points per log point of GDP per capita. This delegation divide is compositional: the physical barrier dominates the jobs poorer countries employ most. Second, at the occupation level ADI tracks exposure closely (r = 0.93 with Eloundou et al. and 0.89 with Felten et al.), above the preregistered bound of 0.80; ADI adds delegation levels and barriers on top of exposure, for the world, not a new ranking of occupations. Third, full delegation is rare and peaks for tasks that take a human about twelve minutes (11.8 minutes). Fourth, the preregistered adoption gap is not supported: across 101 countries, delegability and observed AI usage correlate at r = 0.86, and the gap between them is not wider in middle-income countries (p = 0.27). Model agreement is kappa = 0.77; a blind human rating of 300 tasks agrees with the model consensus at kappa = 0.85, and an agentic panel with web search at kappa = 0.87. We release the index, the atlas, the prompts and an MCP server at https://github.com/Cespial/delegation-divide.