Neural Ordinary Differential Equations for Modeling Socio-Economic Dynamics

This study examines the challenges of modeling complex and noisy data related to socioeconomic factors over time, with a focus on data from various districts in Odisha, India. Traditional time-series models struggle to capture both trends and variations together in this type of data. To tackle this, a Variational Neural Stochastic Differential Equation (V-NSDE) model is designed that combines the expressive dynamics of Neural SDEs with the generative capabilities of Variational Autoencoders (VAEs). This model uses an encoder and a decoder. The encoder takes the initial observations and district embeddings and translates them into a Gaussian distribution, which determines the mean and log-variance of the first latent state. Then the obtained latent state initiates the Neural SDE, which utilize neural networks to determine the drift and diffusion functions that govern continuous-time latent dynamics. These governing functions depend on the time index, latent state, and district embedding, which help the model learn the unique characteristics specific to each district. After that, using a probabilistic decoder, the observations are reconstructed from the latent trajectory. The decoder outputs a mean and log-variance for each time step, which follows the Gaussian likelihood. The Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO) training loss improves by adding a KL-divergence regularization term to the negative log-likelihood (nll). The obtained results demonstrate the effective learning of V-NSDE in recognizing complex patterns over time, yielding realistic outcomes that include clear trends and random fluctuations across different areas.

We introduce Dynamical Physics-Modeled Neural Networks (DynPMNNs), a continuous-time deep learning architecture in which each hidden layer is defined as the solution of an ordinary differential equation. Unlike classical feed-forward networks, this approach replaces static activation functions with time-evolving dynamical systems, providing a biologically inspired interpretation of hidden-layer behavior and enabling the integration of physically meaningful models. The framework is rigorously grounded in Reproducing Kernel Banach Spaces (RKBSs), allowing DynPMNNs to be characterized as finite-dimensional solutions of an abstract training problem and revealing structural connections with standard neural networks. We present a concrete implementation based on the FitzHugh--Nagumo model for neuronal activation, where numerical ODE solvers are embedded into the computational graph via Euler-type schemes. Both network weights and dynamical parameters are trained jointly. Through experiments on the California Housing dataset, we compare DynPMNNs with Neural ODEs (NODEs) and Closed-form Continuous-Time Networks (CfCs). Despite using fewer trainable parameters, DynPMNNs achieve competitive performance. These results position DynPMNNs as a principled bridge between dynamical systems and deep learning, with promising directions for further research in expressivity, stability, and physics-based modeling.

Ordinary differential equation models of biochemical reactions are often formulated as stoichiometric systems in which the dynamics arise from a collection of interacting processes. A central challenge is that the functional form of each process is rarely known a priori and may be difficult to infer from data. We propose biochemically informed neural ordinary differential equations (BINODEs), a neural-ODE framework that retains the stoichiometric structure of mechanistic models while representing individual processes by neural networks. In BINODEs, the outputs of neural network processes (NNPs) are mapped to state derivatives through a linear layer analogous to a stoichiometric matrix. This architecture allows biological side information, such as process-specific inputs, sign constraints, and monotonicity assumptions, to be built directly into the model. We characterize the approximation properties of NNPs for several standard biochemical rate laws and show that the proposed framework recovers both trajectories and process-level structure in Monod, Lotka--Volterra, pharmacokinetic, and ultradian endocrine models. These results suggest that BINODEs offer a useful compromise between mechanistic interpretability and data-driven flexibility for modeling partially known biochemical or biological dynamical systems.