Reinforcement Learning for Speculative Trading under Exploratory Framework

We study continuous-time and possibly high-dimensional stochastic control problems where drift coefficients and running reward functions are unknown. Due to these missing model primitives, we take the exploratory, reinforcement learning (RL) framework of Wang, Zariphopoulou, and Zhou(2020) with relaxed controls and entropy regularization. The objective is to develop theoretically grounded, efficient and scalable RL algorithms to learn both the optimal value functions (which also solve the exploratory HJB equation) and optimal exploratory feedback control policies. When the diffusion coefficients do not contain control, we employ probabilistic representations of both the optimal value function and its gradient based on an auxiliary state process depending only on the diffusion part of the original dynamics. With a delicate analysis on some properly defined mappings and their fixed points, this leads to the introduction of our policy iteration algorithms and their convergence. We demonstrate the performance of our algorithms through various numerical examples. Finally, we study a special control-dependent diffusion case where probability representation of the Hessian is called for.

Simulation based solvers for optimal stopping problems must discretize the stopping decision. Under classical dynamic programming, a coarse exercise grid with only a few stopping opportunities can materially undervalue the optimal expected reward, whereas on a very fine grid, approximation errors accumulate through the backward recursion. To remove this limitation, we develop a new reinforcement-learning inspired algorithm that enables us to learn the exercise rule at arbitrarily fine time resolution. Our CARLOS (Continuous-time Adaptive Reinforcement Learning for Optimal Stopping) algorithm utilizes an aggregate deep neural network (ADNN) to learn a joint space-time decision boundary. Starting from a coarse time grid, we progressively increase the frequency of stopping opportunities, while in parallel training the ADNN to refine its timing-value estimates. We moreover design an adaptive sampling strategy that gradually concentrates training effort near the stopping boundary. Benchmarked results show that CARLOS delivers higher prices than existing Bermudan solvers, approaching the American upper bound, and achieves high computational efficiency relative to non-RL comparators.

In reinforcement learning (RL), agents benefit from exploration only because they repeatedly encounter similar states: trying different actions can improve performance or reduce uncertainty; without such retries, a greedy policy is optimal. We formalize this intuition with ReMax, an objective that evaluates a policy by the expected maximum return over $M$ samples, where $M$ is a positive integer, while accounting for return uncertainty. Optimizing this objective induces stochastic exploration as an emergent property, without explicit bonus terms. For efficient policy optimization, we derive a new policy-gradient formulation for ReMax and introduce ReMax PPO (RePPO), a PPO variant that optimizes ReMax while generalizing the discrete retry count $M$ to a continuous parameter $m > 0$, enabling fine-grained control of exploration. Empirically, RePPO promotes exploration, without any explicit exploration bonuses, on the MinAtar and Craftax benchmarks.