Network Structure in UK Payment Flows: Evidence on Economic Interdependencies and Implications for Real-Time Measurement

The Spatial-Temporal Graph Attention Network (ST-GAT) framework was created to serve as an explainable GNN-based solution for detecting bank distress early warning signs and for conducting macro-prudential surveillance of the interbank system in the United States. The ST-GAT framework models 8,103 FDIC insured institutions across 58 quarterly snapshots (2010Q1-2024Q2). Bilateral exposures were reconstructed from publicly available FDIC Call Reports using maximum entropy estimation to produce a dynamic directed weighted graph. The framework achieves the highest AUPRC among all GNN architectures (0.939 +/- 0.010), trailing only XGBoost (0.944). Ablation analysis confirms the BiLSTM temporal component contributes +0.020 AUPRC; temporal attention weights exhibit a monotonically decreasing pattern consistent with long-run structural vulnerability weighting. Permutation importance identifies ROA (0.309) and NPL Ratio (0.252) as dominant predictors, consistent with post-mortem analyses of the 2023 regional banking crisis. All data are publicly available FDIC Call Reports and FRED series; all code and results are released.

With the deep integration of the travel and energy industries, cross-industry supply chain finance has gradually become a high-risk field of hidden money laundering incidents. For this reason, this work proposes a graph-driven cross-industry real-time anti-money laundering monitoring framework (GCRMF) for integrated travel - energy supply chain networks. First, a cross-industry heterogeneous graph (CIHG) covering new energy vehicle rental platforms, energy suppliers, fintech institutions, etc., is constructed, and industry semantics are integrated through temporarily Dual-GAT (Temporal Dual-Graph Attention Network), dynamically encoding capital flow paths and evolution features over time. Subsequently, in order to identify the structural fraud behavior together produced by colluding subjects, a meta-path subgraph reasoning module based on contrastive learning and hierarchical graph sampling is proposed to enhance the discrimination capability of cross-industry recurring money laundering behavior. Meanwhile, a self-supervised online learning mechanism is adopted for real-time adaptation and continuous optimization to new money laundering strategies. The experimental results show that compared with existing graph neural network methods in cross-industry scenarios, GCRMF improves the performance by more than 17.8% of F1 score and greatly reduces the false positive rate.

Many important outcomes unfold as dynamic cascades, including product adoption, disease spread, financial distress, and information diffusion. A central challenge is to recover the hidden influence network behind these cascades. Existing methods typically assume a specific diffusion model, and their performance degrades substantially when that assumption is misspecified. We propose CascadeNet, a Jacobian-based machine learning framework for network recovery that does not require specifying a diffusion mechanism. The key idea is that the underlying influence structure can be characterized by the Jacobian of the one-step transition function. CascadeNet first constructs a flexible estimator of the transition function, and further applies Neyman-orthogonal debiasing via the Riesz representer, so that the debiased Jacobian is $\sqrt{n}$-consistent and asymptotically normal, enabling formal inference on the network structure. We validate CascadeNet in both a simulation exercise and a real-world empirical application. In simulations, where the data-generating process is known, CascadeNet achieves the highest network recovery accuracy across nine common data-generating processes. In an empirical application to COVID-19 transmission across Spain's 52 provinces, CascadeNet recovers transmission networks that are significantly correlated with the true inter-province mobility network, whereas networks recovered by baseline methods show no significant alignment with the ground truth.