Intelligent Cloud Orchestration: A Hybrid Predictive and Heuristic Framework for Cost Optimization

Accurate cloud resource forecasting is essential for proactive resource provisioning, maintaining Quality of Service (QoS), and reducing operational costs in dynamic cloud environments. The existing forecasting approaches predominantly estimate future CPU workload directly from historical resource traces, which often overlook the relationship between customer service demand and subsequent resource consumption. This study proposes a two-stage integrated forecasting model that explicitly models this dependency by first forecasting customer service requests, expressed as Transactions Per Second (TPS), and subsequently estimating future CPU workload from the TPS forecast. Both the forecasting component and resource prediction component employed the XGBoost model within a cascaded learning architecture, complemented by adaptive online retraining using an expanding-window strategy to address concept drift in continuously evolving cloud workloads. The proposed work was evaluated using real-world traces collected from a private cloud environment comprising ten applications. Experimental results demonstrate robust forecasting performance by achieving Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE) below $7\%$ for most applications, with the best-performing application achieving an MAE of $0.7372$, RMSE of $1.1866$, SMAPE of $3.57\%$, and an R2 of $0.9185$. Horizon-wise drift analysis confirmed stable recursive forecasting behavior with controlled error accumulation across a 60-step prediction horizon. Compared with the conventional direct CPU forecasting method, the proposed two-stage integrated model gives improved forecasting robustness, computational efficiency, and interpretability, making it well-suited for proactive resource management and intelligent auto-scaling in cloud computing environments.

Serverless computing eliminates infrastructure management overhead but introduces significant challenges regarding cold start latency and resource utilization. Traditional static resource allocation often leads to inefficiencies under variable workloads, resulting in performance degradation or excessive costs. This paper presents an adaptive engineering framework that optimizes serverless performance through event-driven architecture and probabilistic modeling. We propose a dual-strategy mechanism that dynamically adjusts idle durations and employs an intelligent request waiting strategy based on slot survival predictions. By leveraging sliding window aggregation and asynchronous processing, our system proactively manages resource lifecycles. Experimental results show that our approach reduces cold starts by up to 51.2% and improves cost-efficiency by nearly 2x compared to baseline methods in multi-cloud environments.

Accurate workload forecasting is critical for elastic resource provisioning in web-scale cloud services, where distribution shifts driven by viral content, product launches, and user behavior degrade offline-trained models rapidly. Naive online learning recovers accuracy but incurs prohibitive per-step compute cost. We propose AdaptLSTM, an adaptive online framework that detects drift via validation-calibrated thresholds and applies selective, targeted updates. On the Alibaba Machine Trace, AdaptLSTM recovers 54% of Naive Online's improvement at 20% cost ($2.7\times$ efficiency, $p=0.002$ over 10 seeds). On the more volatile Container Trace, it achieves 96% at 20% cost ($4.8\times$ efficiency, $+75\%$ MAE reduction over Static). Unlike classical drift detectors (ADWIN, DDM, Page-Hinkley) which fail to trigger on regression-scale error streams, AdaptLSTM fires 42 times over 301 steps and outperforms matched-budget baselines. Wall-clock profiling shows $1.33\times$ throughput gain and 45% update-time reduction. The framework is model-agnostic: identical Pareto patterns hold for LSTM, GRU, and Transformer backbones.