Financial Anomaly Detection for the Canadian Market

Detecting structural instability and anomalies in high-dimensional financial time series is challenging due to complex temporal dependence and evolving cross-sectional structure. We propose ReGEN-TAD, an interpretable generative framework that integrates modern machine learning with econometric diagnostics for anomaly detection. The model combines joint forecasting and reconstruction within a refined convolutional--transformer architecture and aggregates complementary signals capturing predictive inconsistency, reconstruction degradation, latent distortion, and volatility shifts. Robust calibration yields a unified anomaly score without labeled data. Experiments on synthetic and financial panels demonstrate improved robustness to structured deviations while enabling economically coherent factor-level attribution.

Early warning of extreme market volatility is central to financial risk management, but actionable events are rare, nonstationary, and often triggered by exogenous information shocks. In our CSI300 setting, only $\sim$80 positive samples are observed across 791 training days, making heavily supervised multi-source models unstable. We first analyze a 100K-parameter hierarchical text-signal fusion model (HTSF) and find that added parameterization hurts in this low-label regime. Motivated by this failure, we propose AAMSF (Anomaly-Augmented Multi-Signal Fusion), a semisupervised framework that combines Isolation Forest anomaly scores over market indicators, GDELT events, Chinese financial news, and English media with lightweight Ridge score fusion. We further introduce T-AAMSF, a temporal extension for multi-day anomaly accumulation. On CSI300 (2018--2023), AAMSF achieves test AUC-ROC 0.680, outperforming the strongest unsupervised baseline (0.630) and neural baseline (0.588), while T-AAMSF improves PR-AUC to 0.291. Ablations reveal strong source asymmetry: GDELT and domestic financial news provide complementary risk signals, whereas English media consistently reduces performance, and learned weighting is unreliable under validation noise. These results suggest an empirical design principle for label-scarce financial risk warning: robust anomaly geometry and source reliability can matter more than supervised representation capacity.

Detecting anomalies in link streams that represent various kinds of interactions is an important research topic with crucial applications. Because of the lack of ground truth data, proposed methods are mostly evaluated through their ability to detect randomly injected links. In contrast with most proposed methods, that rely on complex approaches raising computational and/or interpretability issues, we show here that trivial graph features and classical learning techniques are sufficient to detect such anomalies extremely well. This basic approach has very low computational costs and it leads to easily interpretable results. It also has many other desirable properties that we study through an extensive set of experiments. We conclude that detection methods should now target more complex kinds of anomalies.