Understanding When Poisson Log-Normal Models Outperform Penalized Poisson Regression for Microbiome Count Data

Poisson non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) is a widely used method to find interpretable "parts-based" decompositions of count data. While many variants of Poisson NMF exist, existing methods assume that the "parts" in the decomposition combine additively. This assumption may be natural in some settings, but not in others. Here we introduce Poisson NMF with the shifted-log link function to relax this assumption. The shifted-log link function has a single tuning parameter, and as this parameter varies the model changes from assuming that parts combine additively (i.e., standard Poisson NMF) to assuming that parts combine more multiplicatively. We provide an algorithm to fit this model by maximum likelihood, and also an approximation that substantially reduces computation time for large, sparse datasets (computations scale with the number of non-zero entries in the data matrix). We illustrate these new methods on a variety of real datasets. Our examples show how the choice of link function in Poisson NMF can substantively impact the results, and how in some settings the use of a shifted-log link function may improve interpretability compared with the standard, additive link.

Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN) is a way of including knowledge in the form of equations in Machine Learning methods. Beyond equations, knowledge exists in other forms, such as text and network structure. While existing PINN-based approaches discover equation parameters from data, they rely solely on experimental measurements. We propose a new PINN framework that enriches parameter discovery by incorporating auxiliary knowledge sources. We instantiate our framework for microbiology, where generalised Lotka-Volterra (gLV) serves as a biological foundation for modelling microbial communities. We demonstrate that incorporating knowledge improves microbial community modelling. Our framework enriches the gLV parameters using peer-reviewed metagenomics literature, as text provides biological context on external influences that gLV alone cannot capture. We combine this knowledge with experimental measurements of microbial abundance using a data-driven integration approach. We integrate network-based structural knowledge by explicitly modelling microbial interactions. Our knowledge-inclusive framework infers microbial networks, revealing ecological insights. We validate these findings against ecological roles documented in the literature. We evaluate on real and simulated datasets spanning human- and plant-associated microbial communities. Our framework improves over the state-of-the-art by up to 53%, even without knowledge. Knowledge addition yields gains of up to 23% in Bray-Curtis Dissimilarity-based accuracy and 47% in $\mathrm{R}^2$.

Spike-and-slab regression is a standard Bayesian formulation of variable selection: it returns a posterior distribution over which candidate effects are active rather than a single selected subset, so that every candidate effect carries an inclusion probability. Its cost grows exponentially with the number of candidate effects, so the posterior can be enumerated exactly only when the number of predictors is small. Beyond that reach, the posterior has to be approximated, typically by Markov chain Monte Carlo over the model space, which requires a fresh run for every dataset and, within a fixed budget of steps, may fail to converge. We present LinearPFN, a prior-data fitted transformer network that amortizes spike-and-slab inference for linear models with main effects and pairwise interactions. The network is pretrained once on synthetic datasets, drawn from an explicitly specified prior, and a single forward pass over a new dataset returns posterior inclusion probabilities, posterior-mean coefficients and posterior predictive distributions with no per-dataset fitting. The prior is conjugate by design, so that the posterior for each fixed set of active effects has a closed form, and wherever the exact posterior is still computable by enumeration we verify the network's outputs against it. On real predictor matrices from published social-science datasets, with outcomes drawn from the prior so that the true active set is known, LinearPFN attains a higher per-dataset selection AUC and a higher F1 under the median probability model rule than five classical baselines. The lead holds when the coefficients, the interactions or the noise depart from the prior. Code: https://github.com/schiekiera/LinearPFN. Trained model: https://huggingface.co/schiekiera/LinearPFN.