Towards Predicting Multi-Vulnerability Attack Chains in Software Supply Chains from Software Bill of Materials Graphs

The software supply chain has become an increasingly exposed attack surface because of its reliance on intricate yet fragile dependencies. Existing defenses such as GitHub Dependabot often raise many false alerts because their coarse-grained matching cannot determine whether a vulnerable dependency is actually exploitable. Security analysts typically spend substantial time assessing vulnerability exploitability case by case. Recent LLM agents have emerged as promising candidates for this task given their advanced capabilities in coding and cybersecurity, yet no existing benchmark evaluates them on it. Prior benchmarks target zero-day settings, where agents detect and exploit previously unknown vulnerabilities. In contrast, software supply chain security focuses on how known vulnerabilities in upstream dependencies affect downstream projects. This requires agents to reason across repositories and determine whether an upstream vulnerability is exploitable in the downstream project. To address this gap, we introduce VEX-Bench, the first benchmark for evaluating LLM agents' ability to assess the exploitability of software supply chain vulnerabilities. It contains 75 real-world cases mined from GitHub and labeled by security experts, covering Python, Java, and Go. We evaluate nine models across three agent harnesses. While GPT-5.5 and Claude Opus 4.6 reach approximately 80% F1 on binary vulnerability-status classification, only GPT-5.5 surpasses 70% macro-F1 on fine-grained justification classification. This gap highlights the challenge of moving beyond binary exploitability assessment to identifying fine-grained exploitability reasons. Code and data: https://github.com/steven1518/vex-bench

A single vulnerability in a widely used library can cascade through millions of dependent applications, yet more than half of vulnerability database entries contain missing or incorrect affected-library information. Existing automated approaches neglect the relational structure of vulnerability databases, treating identification as an isolated text retrieval problem. In this paper, we propose Athena, the first graph-based approach for vulnerability affected library identification. Athena models vulnerability databases as a knowledge graph and reformulates the identification problem as knowledge graph completion (KGC). It comprises three key modules: a Modeling module that constructs a security knowledge graph integrating CVEs, libraries, CWE weakness types, CPE products, and software ecosystems; a Completion module that applies a modular KGC backbone to predict missing affected libraries for a given CVE via link prediction; and a Re-ranking module that retrieves KGC candidates and rescores them using a fine-tuned LLM augmented with knowledge graph embeddings, jointly leveraging structural and textual information. Our experiments on VulLib demonstrate that Athena significantly outperforms four state-of-the-art baselines, achieving a 32% improvement in Avg. F1 over the best baseline (i.e., VulLibGen). Notably, our KGC backbone with only 110M parameters already surpasses VulLibGen's best configuration at 7B parameters, demonstrating the effectiveness of graph-based modeling; the re-ranking module then provides substantial further gains, consistently outperforming the best baseline across all evaluated LLM backbones.

In the evolving threat landscape, adversaries exploit software vulnerabilities to launch sophisticated attacks, challenging traditional defenses. Although databases like CVE and NVD provide detailed technical information, they often lack links to attacker behaviors such as tactics and techniques, limiting effective threat interpretation and response. This work bridges this gap by connecting vulnerabilities with behavioral patterns from the MITRE ATT&CK framework. We construct a CVE-TTP Knowledge Graph that links CVEs to tactics and techniques using classification and relation extraction. Transformer-based models are developed for behavior identification, with CySecBERT achieving macro F1-scores of 87.71% (techniques) and 96.16% (tactics). Also, we created an annotated dataset with 24,820 entities and 43,608 relations for entity and relation extraction. The pipeline-based approach achieves macro F1-scores of 0.86 (entity extraction) and 0.99 (relation extraction), while a span-based joint model achieves 0.78. These outputs are integrated into a Neo4j-based Cyber Threat Knowledge Graph, enabling structured visualization of vulnerabilities.