Time-Series Classification with Multivariate Statistical Dependence Features

We study training-free fixed-length descriptors for multivariate time series and ask not merely whether such a descriptor performs well, but when it can be expected to work at all. Our object of study is $D(τ)$, built from a time-lagged correlation matrix truncated at the Marchenko-Pastur edge so that only signal-bearing eigenvalues survive and classified by cosine similarity to class centroids with zero learned parameters. The central contribution is not the descriptor but a falsifiable applicability criterion for it. Working from a stationary Gaussian VAR(1) model, we argue that $D(τ)$ separates two classes when the signals are approximately stationary and the class information lives in their cross-channel temporal coupling rather than in marginal per-channel power. We derive, semi-formally, three consequences: a distinguishability condition, why the static ($τ=0$) covariance collapses to chance, and why a stationary but power-discriminated paradigm defeats the descriptor. The criterion is operational: a two-part pre-flight test -- an augmented Dickey-Fuller stationarity check and a power-baseline saturation check -- predicts applicability before any training. We validate both halves on a mixed assortment. On four paradigms that satisfy the criterion (Sleep-EDF, BCI-IV-2a, MIT-BIH, ESC-50) the descriptor is competitive with strong baselines at a fraction of their cost, reaching $88.5\pm4.5\%$ under 20-subject leave-one-subject-out on Sleep-EDF on a single CPU thread. On three that violate it -- non-stationary ERPs, and financial-volatility and wearable-stress regimes that are power-discriminated -- it fails exactly as the pre-flight predicts, and these negatives are the more informative half. We are explicit that $D(τ)$ is not the most accurate representation; its value is a compact, training-free embedding whose domain of validity is known in advance.

We introduce a toolkit for uncovering spurious correlations between recording characteristics and target class in speech datasets. Spurious correlations may arise due to heterogeneous recording conditions, a common scenario for health-related datasets. When present both in the training and test data, these correlations result in an overestimation of the system performance -- a dangerous situation, specially in high-stakes application where systems are required to satisfy minimum performance requirements. Our toolkit implements a diagnostic method based on the detection of the target class using only the non-speech regions in the audio. Better than chance performance at this task indicates that information about the target class can be extracted from the non-speech regions, flagging the presence of spurious correlations. The toolkit is publicly available for research use.

Time series classification (TSC) exhibits a sharp trade-off between accuracy and computational scalability. Meta-ensembles like HIVE-COTE 2.0 reach state-of-the-art accuracy but require extensive compute, whereas ultra-fast random convolutional transforms (e.g., MiniRocket, Hydra) run in seconds but struggle with phase-independent distributions, signal kinematics, and decision tree fragmentation on large class counts. In this work, we present CADENCE (Confidence-Adaptive Dual-Expert Network for time series Classification Excellence), a unified, CPU-native dual-expert architecture. CADENCE decouples representation learning into two specialized pathways: (i) a Convolutional Linear Expert pairing 10,000 deterministic dilated features with closed-form L2-regularized Woodbury ridge classification, and (ii) a Distributional Interval Expert pairing competing dilated kernels (Hydra) with dyadic Cornish-Fisher moment approximations across signal kinematics and FFT spectral bands, fitted with an ExtraTrees ensemble. An internal validation meta-router with rare-class preservation dynamically selects between pure expert routing and confidence-weighted soft blending, followed by a full refit on 100% of training data. Evaluated across all 109 equal-length UCR Archive datasets over 30 resamples (3,270 total runs), CADENCE achieves a grand mean accuracy of 0.8864. This ranks #2 across the archive, surpassed only by HIVE-COTE 2.0 (0.8895, p_Holm = 0.295, no statistically significant difference), while outperforming Hydra+MultiRocket (0.8818), MultiRocket (0.8797), and HIVE-COTE 1.0 (0.8786, p_Holm = 0.048). CADENCE closes the gap to HIVE-COTE 2.0 to 0.31 percentage points while taking an average of only 17.53 seconds per dataset on a dual-core CPU. Source code and evaluation scripts: https://github.com/onisa-jr/CADENCE.git