Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities in long-form generation, yet their application is hindered by the hallucination problem. While Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is essential for assessing reliability, the complex structure makes reliable aggregation across heterogeneous themes difficult, in addition, existing methods often overlook the nuance of neutral information and suffer from the high computational cost of fine-grained decomposition. To address these challenges, we propose AGSC (Adaptive Granularity and GMM-based Semantic Clustering), a UQ framework tailored for long-form generation. AGSC first uses NLI neutral probabilities as triggers to distinguish irrelevance from uncertainty, reducing unnecessary computation. It then applies Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) soft clustering to model latent semantic themes and assign topic-aware weights for downstream aggregation. Experiments on BIO and LongFact show that AGSC achieves state-of-the-art correlation with factuality while reducing inference time by about 60% compared to full atomic decomposition.
Figures & tables
Figure 1: Illustration of prompt-induced structural uncertainty.
Figure 2: Overview of the AGSC framework. The framework consists of three stages: (1) Diversity Generation, where multiple responses are sampled; (2) NLI Computation & Adaptive Splitting, where sentences are analyzed via NLI and adaptively decomposed into atomic facts or skipped; and (3) Semantic Clustering & Aggregation, where units are softly clustered via UMAP and GMM to derive the final uncertainty score.
Dataset
Model
Metric ↓
SE
LexSim
Ecc
Deg
KLE
SPUQ
SCN
SAR
LUQ
LUQ-Pair
LUQ-Atomic
AGSC
BIO
GPT-4.1-mini
PCC
-
-0.438
-0.219
-0.329
-0.501
-0.515
-0.493
-0.515
-0.548
-0.381
-0.572
-0.708
SCC
-
-0.423
-0.211
-0.317
-0.495
-0.508
-0.486
-0.490
-0.529
-0.241
-0.486
-0.665
Qwen2.5-32B
PCC
-0.246
-0.262
-0.131
-0.197
-0.305
-0.315
-0.295
-0.405
-0.328
-0.414
-0.517
-0.645
SCC
-0.318
-0.339
-0.169
-0.254
-0.390
-0.405
-0.382
-0.450
-0.424
-0.395
-0.541
-0.646
Llama3-70B
PCC
-0.242
-0.258
-0.129
-0.193
-0.295
-0.305
-0.290
-0.285
-0.322
-0.255
-0.239
-0.339
SCC
-0.251
-0.268
-0.134
-0.201
-0.308
-0.315
-0.301
-0.290
-0.334
-0.260
-0.250
-0.335
Table 1: Pearson (PCC) and Spearman (SCC) correlations between uncertainty metrics and FActScore. Bold indicates the highest correlation, and underlined indicates the second highest in each row. Values marked with ‘-’ indicate inapplicable white-box metrics for API-based models.
Section
Variant
BIO
LongFact
PCC
SCC
PCC
SCC
AGSC
-0.708
-0.665
-0.370
-0.461
Sec 3.3
w/o Adap.
-0.512
-0.520
-0.292
-0.461
w/ NG
-0.540
-0.540
-0.201
-0.295
w/ NW
-0.564
-0.514
-0.198
-0.257
Sec 3.4
w/o Clustering.
-0.679
-0.622
-0.204
-0.307
Table 2: Ablation study of AGSC using GPT-4.1-mini . We report Pearson (PCC) and Spearman (SCC) correlations between uncertainty and FActScore. Bold indicates the best performance.
NLI Backbone
BIO
LongFact
PCC
SCC
PCC
SCC
DeBERTa-v3-large-mnli (Default)
-0.708
-0.665
-0.370
-0.461
GPT-5
-0.735
-0.692
-0.405
-0.498
RoBERTa-large-mnli
-0.685
-0.642
-0.358
-0.449
BART-large-mnli
-0.668
-0.625
-0.345
-0.436
DeBERTa-base-mnli
-0.632
-0.594
-0.328
-0.415
Table 3: Impact of different NLI backbone models on AGSC performance.
Figure 3: Robustness analysis of AGSC compared to LUQ variants across different prompt granularities.
Figure 4: Sensitivity analysis of the adaptive threshold Δ on BIO and LongFact. Left y-axis (solid): Performance ( ∣ PCC ∣ ); right y-axis (dashed): Inference Time. For both datasets, the optimal trade-off is achieved at Δ=0.1 .
Figure 5: Impact of the number of sampled responses ( n ) on uncertainty estimation performance. The left and right plots show Pearson (PCC) and Spearman (SCC) correlations, respectively.
Figure 6: Time consumption breakdown of different uncertainty estimation methods ( n =5).
Figure 7: Cost-benefit analysis comparing performance gain versus time cost.
Figure 8: Analysis of NLI Distribution.
Appendix figures & tables4 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
Kmax←min(Klimit,Kdensity,Klog)
Appendix
Algorithm 1 Adaptive Soft Clustering with UMAP and BIC
Figure 9: Examples of the Skip vs. Decompose logic in AGSC’s adaptive granularity module.
Figure 10: Comparison of NLI targets before and after GMM semantic clustering.
Figure 11: Analysis of a GMM clustering failure due to cross-cluster thematic ambiguity.
Despite the rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs), uncertainty quantification in LLM generation is a persistent challenge. Although recent approaches have achieved strong performance by restricting LLMs to produce short or constrained answer sets, many real-world applications require long-form and free-form text generation. A key difficulty in this setting is that LLMs often produce responses that are semantically coherent yet factually inaccurate, while the underlying semantics are multifaceted and the linguistic structure is complex. To tackle this challenge, this paper introduces Interrogative Uncertainty Quantification (IUQ), a novel framework that leverages inter-sample consistency and intra-sample faithfulness to quantify the uncertainty in long-form LLM outputs. By utilizing an interrogate-then-respond paradigm, our method provides reliable measures of claim-level uncertainty and the model's faithfulness. Experimental results across diverse model families and model sizes demonstrate the superior performance of IUQ over two widely used long-form generation datasets. The code is available at https://github.com/louisfanhz/IUQ.
Haozhi Fan, Jinhao Duan, Kaidi Xu
University of Pennsylvania · 2UNC Chapel Hill · 3City University of Hong Kong
Uncertainty quantification has emerged as an effective approach to closed-book hallucination detection for LLMs, but existing methods are largely designed for short-form outputs and do not generalize well to long-form generation. We introduce a taxonomy for fine-grained uncertainty quantification in long-form LLM outputs that distinguishes methods by design choices at three stages: response decomposition, unit-level scoring, and response-level aggregation. We formalize several families of consistency-based black-box scorers, providing generalizations and extensions of existing methods. We also introduce FactScore-STEM-Geo, a new 400-question long-form QA dataset spanning four categories across STEM and Geography. In our experiments across multiple LLMs and datasets, we find 1) claim-response entailment consistently performs better or on par with more complex claim-level scorers, 2) claim-level scoring generally yields better results than sentence-level scoring, and 3) uncertainty-aware decoding is highly effective for improving the factuality of long-form outputs. Our framework clarifies relationships between prior methods, enables apples-to-apples comparisons, and provides practical guidance for selecting components for fine-grained UQ.
Large language models (LLMs) often hallucinate in long-form generation. Existing approaches mainly improve factuality through post-hoc revision or reinforcement learning (RL) with correctness-based rewards, but they do not teach the model to estimate which parts of its generation are reliable. As a result, models may still state incorrect claims confidently in their responses. Recent advances in reasoning have significantly improved LLM performance, and have been leveraged to estimate confidence by incorporating calibration into RL objectives. However, existing approaches remain limited to a single scalar confidence for the entire response, which is insufficient for long-form generation where uncertainty varies across individual claims. To mitigate this problem, we propose CURE, a framework that improves long-form factuality by teaching LLMs to reason about uncertainty at the claim level. We first introduce a Claim-Aware Reasoning Protocol, which structures outputs into atomic claims paired with explicit confidence estimates. We then develop a multi-stage training pipeline that aligns model confidence with claims' correctness and then optimizes on factuality. The resulting calibrated confidence further enables selective prediction, allowing the model to abstain from uncertain claims at inference time. Experiments on four long-form factuality benchmarks show that CURE consistently improves factual accuracy over competitive supervised and RL baselines, while maintaining factual recall. In particular, it improves claim-level accuracy by up to 39.9% on Biography generation. These gains are accompanied by improved calibration, as reflected by a 16.0% increase in AUROC on FactBench.
Xin Liu, Lu Wang
Computer Science and Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA