Triage: Routing Software Engineering Tasks to Cost-Effective LLM Tiers via Code Quality Signals

Enterprise AI coding assistants incur substantial inference spend, and naive token-cost minimization often fails to reduce end-to-end cost once retries, escalations, and developer wait time are included. We present Task-to-Model Optimization (T2MO), a data-driven methodology for optimizing model selection in production coding workflows. We treat each developer session as a task that can be discovered, classified, graded for difficulty, benchmarked in a production-like harness, and routed to the cheapest model able to complete it within quality and latency constraints. The framework is a nine-stage pipeline spanning telemetry instrumentation, taxonomy discovery, difficulty grading, benchmark construction, candidate evaluation, optimal mix derivation, forecasting and version planning, staged routing deployment, and continuous governance. Unlike token-centric routing rules, our objective is cost per completed task, with failure escalation priced in explicitly. We show that this expected-completion-cost objective weakly dominates token-cost minimization under escalation, and we derive the routing boundary, the minimum pass rate a cheaper model must reach on a given cell to be worth deploying. Decisions are organized as a two-level hierarchy of task category difficulty tier, and per-cell displacement opportunities are aggregated into a traffic-weighted savings waterfall that ranks replacement candidates by realized dollar impact. The framework supports developer guidance, spend forecasting, and a staged transition from static policies to shadow-mode classifiers, verified cascades, and ultimately an intelligent router. We describe the methodology, optimization objective, evaluation protocol, and governance loop in a form suitable for production deployment and future empirical study.

Real-world users typically have access to multiple Large Language Models (LLMs) from different providers, and these LLMs often excel at distinct domains, yet none dominate all. Consequently, routing each task to the most suitable model becomes critical for both performance and cost. Existing routers treat this as a static, one-off classification problem. However, we identify the performance bottleneck for these routers as information deficit: simply augmenting a vanilla LLM router with performance statistics at the task-dimension level yields a 15.3% relative gain, surpassing a heuristic router built on the same dimension-level priors. Motivated by this finding, we propose Agent-as-a-Router, a framework that formalizes routing as a C-A-F loop (Context->Action->Feedback->Context). It closes the information gap by accumulating execution-grounded experience during deployment. We instantiate this framework as ACRouter, composed of an Orchestrator, a Verifier, a Memory module, and introduce CodeRouterBench, an evaluation environment comprising ~10K task instances with verified scores from 8 frontier LLMs, enabling regret-based router comparison on streaming tasks. Experiments show that ACRouter achieves the lowest cumulative regret on in-distribution tasks and generalizes to out-of-distribution agentic-programming tasks, demonstrating that our routing framework actively closes the information gap. Codes and benchmarks are released at https://github.com/LanceZPF/agent-as-a-router.

Large language models (LLMs) embedded in multi-turn agentic harnesses are reshaping software engineering (SWE), but routing every task to a frontier model is wasteful when many issues admit cheap fixes. Existing LLM routers operate on the task description alone, which inherits an information-theoretic Bayes-error floor in agentic settings: a similar issue can hide either a localized typo or a multi-module refactor, and the prompt does not separate the two. We introduce SWE-Router, a value-based temporal approach that lets a cheap model run for a few exploratory turns and reads the resulting partial trajectory before deciding whether to continue cheaply or to escalate to an expensive model. We provide a Bayes-optimality theorem showing that conditioning on the partial trajectory never harms routing and is strictly better whenever exploration is informative. Across the LLM pairs of weak and strong models spanning the contemporary cost--capability frontier, we show that SWE-Router greatly improves the cost efficiency of SWE tasks, while maintaining the majority of the performances of the stronger model. We additionally release a multi-LLM trajectory dataset which allows reproduction of our trajectory-level routing.