Where Hindsight Credit Can Reside: A Signed-Capacity View of Token Updates in RLVR

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) trains language models from checked task outcomes, but assigning a terminal reward to individual reasoning tokens or actions remains difficult. Group-relative methods such as Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) sample several attempts per prompt, but lose their reward-based learning signal when all attempts receive the same outcome. We propose Hindsight-Privileged RLVR (HP-RLVR), a single-rollout method that turns a completed trajectory's own future into token-level update weights. The generating policy snapshot scores each eligible token under its causal history and under a hindsight context containing the realized future and verifier feedback. A normalized Jensen--Shannon divergence between the two views weights the reward relative to a historical baseline, yielding bounded token credit for both successful and failed attempts, with no reference solution or learned critic. In paired Qwen3-8B runs over a shared $100$-step schedule, HP-RLVR trains $1.21\times$, $1.46\times$, and $2.30\times$ faster than GRPO on mathematics, code generation, and ALFWorld, using one eighth the rollouts per prompt. Accuracy is comparable overall, with HP-RLVR ahead on mathematics at all three sizes and GRPO ahead on code and ALFWorld. In ALFWorld, $43.2\%$ (4B) and $49.0\%$ (8B) of GRPO's gradient-norm records are zero, versus none for HP-RLVR.

Reinforcement Learning (RL) has substantially improved the reasoning ability of large language models (LLMs), but sparse outcome rewards still make token-level credit assignment difficult. Existing scalable RL methods typically assign trajectory-level rewards uniformly across tokens, while recent entropy-aware approaches either rely on coarse detached heuristics or directly optimize true entropy, which can introduce non-local gradient components misaligned with sampled-token policy updates. We propose Adaptive Credit Policy Optimization (ACPO), a token-level credit assignment framework based on a mode-local surrogate entropy. ACPO asymmetrically modulates policy updates by emphasizing uncertain decisions in successful rollouts and overconfident tokens in failed rollouts. We show that the surrogate admits deterministic entropy bounds and, under modal alignment and proximal updates, preserves the policy-gradient direction to leading order. Experiments on mathematical reasoning and coding benchmarks, including AIME 2025 and HumanEvalPro, show that ACPO consistently improves over strong RL baselines such as DAPO, GTPO, and SAPO.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has substantially improved the reasoning capabilities of large language models. While existing analyses identify that RLVR-induced changes are sparse, they primarily focus on the magnitude of these updates, largely overlooking their direction. In this work, we argue that the direction of updates is a more critical lens for understanding RLVR's effects, which can be captured by the signed, token-level log probability difference $Δ\log p$ between the base and final RLVR models. Through statistical analysis and token-replacement interventions, we demonstrate that $Δ\log p$ more effectively identifies sparse, yet reasoning-critical updates than magnitude-based metrics (\eg divergence or entropy). Building on this insight, we propose two practical applications: (1) a test-time extrapolation method that amplifies the policy along the learned $Δ\log p$ direction to improve reasoning accuracy without further training; (2) a training-time reweighting method that focuses learning on low-probability (corresponding to higher $Δ\log p$) tokens, which improves reasoning performance across models and benchmarks. Our work establishes the direction of change as a key principle for analyzing and improving RLVR.