RPRA: Predicting an LLM-Judge for Efficient but Performant Inference
Authors: Dylan R. Ashley, Gaël Le Lan, Changsheng Zhao, Naina Dhingra, Zhipeng Cai, Ernie Chang, Mingchen Zhuge, Yangyang Shi, Vikas Chandra, Jürgen Schmidhuber
Organizations: Meta Platforms, Inc., Menlo Park, United States of America · The Swiss AI Lab IDSIA (USI-SUPSI), Lugano, Switzerland · Università della Svizzera italiana, Lugano, Switzerland · Scuola universitaria professionale della Svizzera italiana, Lugano, Switzerland · Center of Excellence for Generative AI, KAUST, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
Large language models (LLMs) face a fundamental trade-off between computational efficiency (e.g., number of parameters) and output quality, especially when deployed on computationally limited devices such as phones or laptops. One way to address this challenge is by following the example of humans and have models ask for help when they believe they are incapable of solving a problem on their own; we can overcome this trade-off by allowing smaller models to respond to queries when they believe they can provide good responses, and deferring to larger models when they do not believe they can. To this end, in this paper, we investigate the viability of Predict-Answer/Act (PA) and Reason-Predict-Reason-Answer/Act (RPRA) paradigms where models predict -- prior to responding -- how an LLM judge would score their output. We evaluate three approaches: zero-shot prediction, prediction using an in-context report card, and supervised fine-tuning. Our results show that larger models (particularly reasoning models) perform well when predicting generic LLM judges zero-shot, while smaller models can reliably predict such judges well after being fine-tuned or provided with an in-context report card. Altogether, both approaches can substantially improve the prediction accuracy of smaller models, with report cards and fine-tuning achieving mean improvements of up to 55% and 52% across datasets, respectively. These findings suggest that models can learn to predict their own performance limitations, paving the way for more efficient and self-aware AI systems.
Figures & tables
Figure 1: Overview of the report card framework. Queries are sent to multiple LLMs whose responses are jointly evaluated by an LLM/agentic judge. The judge’s responses are converted into report cards that capture a model’s performance across different query types. At inference time, the model predicts its own capability to answer a new query, enabling cost-efficient routing to a minimally capable model without the characteristic overconfidence of direct self-assessment.
Shorthand
Full Name
# Parameter
Reasoning
Reference
M09B
MobileLLM 0.9B
0.9 Billion
No
Liu et al. (2024b)
L318B
Llama 3.1 8B Instruct
8.03 Billion
No
Grattafiori et al. (2024)
L321B
Llama 3.2 1B Instruct
1.24 Billion
No
Meta AI (2024)
L323B
Llama 3.2 3B Instruct
3.21 Billion
No
Meta AI (2024)
L3370B
Llama 3.3 70B Instruct
70.6 Billion
No
Meta AI (2024)
L416E
Llama 4 Scout 17B 16E Instruct
109 Billion
No
Meta AI (2025)
Table 1: Models considered for our experiments. The parameter count (in billions) is taken from the HuggingFace Safetensor values to ensure equal treatment between models.
Figure 2: The distribution of the LLM judge scores for each of the models on the AIME 2024 dataset. Note that the poor performance of some reasoning models here was due to us limiting reasoning models to producing no more than 24576 tokens.
Figure 4Figure 5
Figure 12: The probability of a model receiving a grade of “great” or “ok” (left) and correctly predicting its score zero-shot (right) as a function of the query’s category on the MMLU-Pro dataset.
Appendix figures & tables40 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
Model
MedQA
LongFact
AIME 2024
MMLU-Pro
SciCode
Mean
M09B
-0.10
+0.27
-0.15
-0.11
-0.43
-0.10
L321B
+0.28
+0.12
+0.91
+0.55
+0.90
+0.55
L323B
-0.01
-0.12
+0.35
+0.24
-0.12
+0.07
L318B
+0.22
-0.05
-0.22
-0.00
+0.03
-0.00
DSQ14B
+0.14
+0.07
-0.17
+0.07
-0.02
+0.02
GPT20B
+0.00
-0.13
+0.16
-0.01
-0.08
-0.01
Appendix
Table 3: Summary of the improvement in the prediction accuracy for the contextual setting as compared with the zero-shot setting.
Model
AIME 2024
LongFact
MedQA
SciCode
MMLU-Pro
M09B
bad
bad
bad
bad
bad
L321B
bad
ok
bad
bad
bad
L323B
bad
great
great
bad
bad
L318B
bad
ok
great
bad
great
GPT20B
bad
great
great
great
great
DSQ14B
great
great
ok
great
great
Appendix
Table 4: The mode scores for each model on each of the datasets.
Model
Biology
Business
Chemistry
Computer Science
Economics
Engineering
M09B
bad
bad
bad
bad
bad
bad
L321B
bad
bad
bad
bad
bad
bad
L323B
great
bad
bad
bad
bad
bad
L318B
great
bad
bad
bad
great
bad
GPT20B
great
great
great
great
great
bad
DSQ14B
great
great
great
great
great
great
Appendix
Table 5: The mode scores for each model on each of the categories in MMLU-Pro.
Figure 13: Distribution of LLM judge scores on AIME 2024 dataset under independent evaluation.
Figure 14: Distribution of LLM judge scores on MedQA dataset under independent evaluation.
Figure 15: Distribution of LLM judge scores on LongFact dataset under independent evaluation.
Figure 16: Distribution of LLM judge scores on MMLU-Pro dataset under independent evaluation.
Figure 17: Distribution of LLM judge scores on SciCode dataset under independent evaluation.
Figure 18: Zero-Shot and Contextual Prediction Distributions on AIME 2024
Figure 19: Zero-Shot and Contextual Prediction Distributions on MedQA
Figure 20: Zero-Shot and Contextual Prediction Distributions on LongFact
Figure 21: Zero-Shot and Contextual Prediction Distributions on MMLU-Pro
Figure 22: Zero-Shot and Contextual Prediction Distributions on SciCode
Figure 23: Distribution of LLM judge scores on AIME 2024 dataset with GPT OSS 120B as the judge.
Figure 24: Distribution of LLM judge scores on MedQA dataset with GPT OSS 120B as the judge.
Figure 25: Distribution of LLM judge scores on LongFact dataset with GPT OSS 120B as the judge.
Figure 26: Distribution of LLM judge scores on MMLU-Pro dataset with GPT OSS 120B as the judge.
Figure 27: Distribution of LLM judge scores on SciCode dataset with GPT OSS 120B as the judge.
Figure 28: The probability of a model receiving a grade of either ”great” or ”ok” as a function of the query’s category on the MMLU-Pro dataset when using GPT OSS 120B as the judge.
Figure 29: The probability of a model receiving a grade of either ”great” or ”ok” as a function of the query’s category on the MMLU-Pro dataset when using GPT OSS 120B as the judge.
Figure 30: Contextual prediction accuracy of models on AIME 2024 dataset when using GPT OSS 120B as the judge.
Figure 31: Contextual prediction accuracy of models on MedQA dataset when using GPT OSS 120B as the judge.
Figure 32: Contextual prediction accuracy of models on LongFact dataset when using GPT OSS 120B as the judge.
Figure 33: Contextual prediction accuracy of models on MMLU-Pro dataset when using GPT OSS 120B as the judge.
Figure 34: Contextual prediction accuracy of models on SciCode dataset when using GPT OSS 120B as the judge.
Figure 35: Contextual prediction accuracy of models on AIME 2024 dataset when using the short feedback template given in Prompt 6 .
Figure 36: Contextual prediction accuracy of models on MedQA dataset when using the short feedback template given in Prompt 6 .
Figure 37: Contextual prediction accuracy of models on LongFact dataset when using the short feedback template given in Prompt 6 .
Figure 38: Contextual prediction accuracy of models on MMLU-Pro dataset when using the short feedback template given in Prompt 6 .
Figure 39: Contextual prediction accuracy of models on SciCode dataset when using the short feedback template given in Prompt 6 .
Figure 40: Contextual prediction accuracy of models on AIME 2024 dataset when evaluation is performed according to the mischievous rubric given in Prompt 12 .
Figure 41: Contextual prediction accuracy of models on MedQA dataset when evaluation is performed according to the mischievous rubric given in Prompt 12 .
Figure 42: Contextual prediction accuracy of models on LongFact dataset when evaluation is performed according to the mischievous rubric given in Prompt 12 .
Figure 43: Contextual prediction accuracy of models on MMLU-Pro dataset when evaluation is performed according to the mischievous rubric given in Prompt 12 .
Figure 44: Contextual prediction accuracy of models on SciCode dataset when evaluation is performed according to the mischievous rubric given in Prompt 12 .
Figure 45: The zero-shot and contextual prediction accuracy of the models on the AIME 2024 dataset.
Figure 46: The zero-shot and contextual prediction accuracy of the models on the MedQA dataset.
Figure 47: The zero-shot and contextual prediction accuracy of the models on the LongFact dataset.
Figure 48: The zero-shot and contextual prediction accuracy of the models on the MMLU-Pro dataset.
Figure 49: The zero-shot and contextual prediction accuracy of the models on the SciCode dataset.