From Order to Distribution: An Exact Operator Framework for Forgetting in Continual Learning

Sequential task updates are fundamental to continual learning, but their recency bias can impose a lasting performance cost. We study this cost in an overparameterized linear-regression model with i.i.d. task sampling. We prove that distribution-level forgetting and population loss converge to the same stationary limit. We quantify the additional loss incurred by sequential exact fitting, or the sequential price. In more homogeneous task geometries, it equals the intrinsic loss asymptotically attained by joint training, making the total loss twice as large. We further analyze fixed-strength elastic weight consolidation (EWC) under general task curvatures and characterize its stationary sequential price at every regularization strength. Under strong regularization, the price decays inversely with EWC strength while the mean-square coupling horizon grows proportionally. Experiments on Jester and Rotated MNIST support the predicted sequential price and its reduction by EWC, with quantitative agreement on real-world tasks satisfying the theory's assumptions and qualitative agreement under nonlinear finite-step training.

Continual learning must absorb new tasks without erasing old ones, and replay---mixing a small buffer of past examples into current training---is among the most effective remedies for catastrophic forgetting. Yet its generalization behavior is shaped by two coupled effects that existing analyses fold into a single hypothesis-level quantity: finite memory replaces each past distribution with an empirical proxy, and repeated reuse couples the buffer, the current data, and the final hypothesis through a shared optimization trajectory. We develop a layer-wise information-theoretic framework that separates these effects at every depth. Our main result decomposes the expected generalization gap into a replay-induced representation drift and an optimization-dependence term, the latter further resolved into stability, plasticity, interaction, and residual-coupling components. Two refinements make the framework operational. A Wasserstein relaxation of the drift term, valid under support mismatch, yields a depth-dependent drift--sensitivity trade-off whose minimizer identifies which interior layer to stabilize. An SGLD instantiation of the optimization term reduces it to a trajectory-level log-determinant budget, exposing a curvature-aware gradient-alignment statistic that serves as an online diagnostic of task-wise forgetting. Controlled and benchmark experiments confirm the predicted memory scaling, the interior funnel, and the alignment signal's link to forgetting.

Continual learning commonly relies on post-hoc mechanisms such as replay, elastic regularization, or distillation. This work argues that forgetting should instead be modeled directly as interference between tasks. In the frozen-feature regime, forgetting from learning a new task is exactly the interference energy induced on the old task. In deep networks, the same quantity is recovered through path-averaged curvature with minimal additional forward passes. When task supports are disjoint, forgetting can be eliminated structurally and when task supports overlap in conflicting directions, a non-zero distortion floor is unavoidable. The same geometry optimally merges models through task-aware orthogonalization. From this analysis we derive Interference-Gated Functional Allocation (IGFA), a replay-free, Fisher-free method that shares directions when tasks align and protects them when they conflict. Across benchmarks, IGFA achieves lossless retention when tasks are structurally separable and moves unavoidable cost from irreversible forgetting into deferred but recoverable plasticity when they are not. It matches the strongest replay-free structural baselines on dissimilar-task streams and improves on unconditional projection when similarity makes transfer worth preserving.