Universality of Gaussian-Mixture Reverse Kernels in Conditional Diffusion

We establish finite-sample guarantees for conditional diffusion models learned from data and implemented with finitely many denoising steps. Our approach aligns the score-training objective with the sampling grid, allowing statistical estimation and numerical discretization errors to be analyzed together. Under a smooth conditional density model, we derive high-probability bounds on the generated distribution's error and quantify the required number of score evaluations. For every smoothness index $β>0$, a suitable grid yields averaged conditional Kullback--Leibler (KL) divergence $\widetilde O_p(n^{-2β/(d_x+d_y+2β)})$ relative to the original target with or without early stopping. Both the full and early-stopped samplers attain average target total-variation (TV) error $\widetilde O_p(n^{-β/(d_x+d_y+2β)})$. Here $n$ is the sample size, $d_x,d_y$ are the data and conditioning dimensions, and errors are averaged over the conditioning variable. The total-variation bound matches the rate established in existing conditional distribution-estimation theory, up to logarithmic factors.

Score-based diffusion models have achieved remarkable empirical success in generative modeling, yet their approximation-theoretic foundations remain incomplete. In particular, although classical universal approximation theorems guarantee that neural networks can approximate score functions, it remains unclear whether such approximation guarantees translate into approximation of the probability distributions generated by reverse diffusion processes. In this paper, we establish a rigorous quantitative connection between these two notions. Specifically, we prove that if a neural network approximates the true score function sufficiently accurately, then the probability distribution generated by the corresponding reverse diffusion model is close to the target data distribution in Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, up to an irreducible mismatch between the terminal distribution of the forward diffusion process and the prior used to initialize the reverse process. More precisely, we derive an explicit upper bound on the distribution approximation error in terms of the score approximation error, the diffusion noise schedule, and the terminal prior mismatch. Our analysis combines Hornik's universal approximation theorem, Girsanov's theorem on path space, and the data processing inequality for relative entropy. Complementary to recent work that studies score approximation under finite-sample statistical settings and structural assumptions on the data distribution, our work develops an approximation-theoretic analysis based on classical neural network approximation theory. The resulting theorem provides a simple and explicit guarantee linking neural network approximation of score functions to approximation of the probability distributions generated by reverse diffusion models.

We study the problem of learning transition kernels for time-homogeneous jump-diffusion processes using conditional diffusion models, with the goal of generating new sample paths from training data consisting of N independent trajectories observed on a high-frequency discrete time grid. On the theoretical side, we establish non-asymptotic bounds for the conditional score estimation error and for the KL divergence between the laws of the true and generated discretely observed paths. On the numerical side, we first evaluate our method on synthetic data to assess the theoretical findings and benchmark its performance against the approach of Gao et al. (2025). We then apply our method to real-world data and investigate its performance on a probabilistic forecasting task.