Predicting Where Steering Vectors Succeed

Applying steering vectors to large language models (LLMs) is an efficient and effective model alignment technique, but we lack an interpretable explanation for how it works--specifically, what internal mechanisms steering vectors affect and how this results in different model outputs. To investigate the causal mechanisms underlying the effectiveness of steering vectors, we conduct a comprehensive case study on refusal. We propose a multi-token activation patching framework and discover that different steering methodologies leverage functionally interchangeable circuits when applied at the same layer. These circuits reveal that steering vectors primarily interact with the attention mechanism through the OV circuit while largely ignoring the QK circuit. Freezing all attention scores during steering drops performance by only 8.83% across three model families. A mathematical decomposition of the steered OV circuit further reveals semantically interpretable concepts, even in cases where the steering vector itself does not. Leveraging the activation patching results, we show that steering vectors can be sparsified by up to 85-96% while retaining most performance, and that different steering methodologies agree on a subset of important dimensions.

Activation steering offers a lightweight approach to control language models' behavior at inference time, but whether it succeeds or fails heavily depends on the prompt, concept, model, and steering configuration. Finding the regime and boundaries of successful steering typically requires expensive grid searches and post-hoc evaluation of full autoregressive rollouts. In this work, we investigate whether steerability can be predicted from the model's internal states at the beginning of the generation process, e.g., after generating the first few tokens, and how to leverage such a predictor to improve steering success rate. To this end, we first introduce ASTEER, a testbed including 1.4M steered generations, spanning 150 concepts with each steering success/failure labeled. Leveraging this testbed, we analyze the model's early decoding dynamics by extracting features that compare hidden states before and after steering across layers and initial decoding steps. These features help us understand how steering's effects propagate along layers and token positions, which provide key information for steerability prediction. We then train a Gradient Boosting Decision Trees (GBDT) classifier on these features to predict whether an intervention will under-steer, succeed, or over-steer without requiring full rollout. Our predictor achieves around 0.7 macro-F1 score on unseen concepts, demonstrating that early hidden states encode substantial, structured information about eventual steering efficacy. We further leverage this steerability predictor as guidance for steering strength searching, achieving near-optimal performance with a small fraction of decoding cost.

Activation-based steering provides control of LLM behavior at inference time, but the dominant paradigm reduces each concept to a single direction whose geometry is left largely unexamined. Rather than selecting a single steering direction, we use conceptors: soft projection matrices estimated from activations pooled across both poles of a bipolar concept, which preserve the concept's full multidimensional subspace. A geometric analysis shows the bipolar subspace strictly subsumes the single-vector baseline. We further show that the conceptor quota provides a parameter-free layer-selection diagnostic, predicting concept separability with Pearson correlations up to r=0.96 across three instruction-tuned models and three semantic dimensions. Beyond selection, conceptors admit a closed-form Boolean algebra (AND, OR, NOT): we evaluate conceptor compositionality on thematically related sub-concepts. Across a systematic five-axis design-space evaluation, conceptors match or outperform additive baselines at layers where concept subspaces are multi-dimensional while producing substantially fewer degenerate outputs. Conceptor steering is a geometrically principled, compositional, and practically safer alternative to single-direction steering from a limited number of contrastive pairs.