OT on the Map: Quantifying Domain Shifts in Geographic Space

Geospatial foundation models pretrained on satellite imagery promise broad generalization across remote sensing tasks and regions, but their geographic transferability has not been systematically tested, especially in agriculture applications. This paper presents a controlled benchmark that evaluates three models, Prithvi, SpectralGPT, and SatMAE, on multi-temporal crop segmentation and change detection across four U.S. states, Iowa, North Carolina, California, and Minnesota. By assigning each train, validation, and test split to a separate region, we measure how well each model transfers to land it has not seen. All three degrade sharply under regional distribution shift, predicting only the most common crops while missing rare ones. We further find that fitting these models to a shared input format affects each one differently, which complicates direct architectural comparison. These results expose key limitations of current geospatial foundation models for agriculture and point to region aware evaluation as a necessary standard.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection identifies test samples that fall outside a model's training distribution, a capability critical for safe deployment in high-stakes applications. Standard OOD detectors are trained on a specific in-distribution (ID) dataset and detect deviations from that single domain. In contrast, we study few-shot cross-domain OOD detection: given a \emph{single} pre-trained model, can we perform OOD detection on \emph{arbitrary} new ID-OOD task pairs using only a handful of ID samples at inference time, with no additional training? We propose \textbf{UFCOD}, a unified framework that achieves this goal through information-geometric analysis of diffusion trajectories. Our key insight is that diffusion noise predictions are score functions (gradients of log-density), and we extract two energy features: \emph{Path Energy} (integrated score magnitude) and \emph{Dynamics Energy} (score smoothness), that form a discrete Sobolev norm capturing how samples interact with the learned diffusion process. The central contribution is a \textbf{train-once, deploy-anywhere} paradigm: a diffusion model trained on a single dataset (e.g., CelebA) serves as a universal feature extractor for OOD detection across semantically unrelated domains (e.g., CIFAR-10, SVHN, Textures). At deployment, each new task requires only $\sim$100 unlabeled ID samples for inference: no retraining, no fine-tuning, no task-specific adaptation. Using 100 ID samples per task, UFCOD achieves 93.7% average AUROC across 12 cross-domain benchmarks, competitive with methods trained on 50k--163k samples, demonstrating $\sim$500$\times$ improvement in sample efficiency. See our code in https://github.com/lili0415/UFCOD.

Self-supervised latent world models can assign a surprise score to driving scenarios without any human labels. A natural follow-up question is whether such a model, trained on driving data from one geographic region, can generalize its notion of complexity to unseen cities and sensor configurations. We study this question through a controlled transfer experiment: we train JEPA-based world models on nuPlan data (Pittsburgh, Boston, Singapore) and evaluate zero-shot on held-out Argoverse 2 validation scenarios from Miami and Austin. We find that models trained on geographically diverse data generalize significantly better than models trained on equal amounts of single-geography data. In a matched-scale ablation at 63,000 scenarios per condition (n=3 seeds each), combined training reduces mean surprise score by 16.5% relative to nuPlan-only training (0.228 +/- 0.015 vs 0.273 +/- 0.008). Notably, training on 200,000 AV2-only scenarios (3x more data from one geography) still produces higher surprise (0.264) than the combined 63K model, suggesting that geographic diversity is a stronger predictor of cross-domain generalization than raw data volume.