Non-Stationarity in the Embedding Space of Time Series Foundation Models

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have emerged as general-purpose models for time series analysis, but pretraining alone is often insufficient for reliable downstream deployment. Bridging this gap requires further intervention to handle domain shift, task heterogeneity, limited supervision, and computational constraints, which motivates post-training as a broad class of methods to adapt, augment, compose, calibrate, or specialize pretrained TSFMs for downstream tasks. In this work, we analyze TSFM post-training methods based on their locus of intervention in the prediction pipeline, yielding five categories: parameter adaptation, context augmentation, model composition, output processing and uncertainty control, and compression and specialization. Within each category, we study main representative methods and discuss their current limitations. We further identify future directions toward controlled adaptation, reliable context construction, uncertainty-aware model composition, calibrated output processing, and deployment-aware specialization. Overall, by providing a unifying framework for the emerging TSFM post-training landscape, this work aims to support future research to navigate the design space between a pretrained TSFM and its reliable downstream deployment.

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) leverage extensive pretraining to accurately predict unseen time series during inference, without the need for task-specific fine-tuning. Through large-scale evaluations on standard benchmarks, we find that leading transformer-based TSFMs exhibit redundant components in their intermediate layers. We introduce a set of tools for mechanistic interpretability of TSFMs, including ablations of specific components and direct logit attribution on the residual stream. Our findings are consistent across several leading TSFMs with diverse architectures, and across a diverse set of real-world and synthetic time-series datasets. We discover that all models in our study are robust to ablations of entire layers. Furthermore, we develop a theoretical framework framing transformers as kernel regressors, motivating a purely intrinsic strategy for ablating heads based on the stable rank of the per-head projection matrices. Using this approach, we uncover the specific heads responsible for degenerate phenomena widely observed in TSFMs, such as parroting of motifs from the context and seasonality bias. Our study sheds light on the universal properties of this emerging class of architectures for continuous-time sequence modeling.

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) achieve strong generalization by learning to reconstruct or forecast broad temporal patterns from large-scale time series during pre-training. Yet this strength can become a weakness for anomaly detection: TSFMs may model rare anomalous patterns as effectively as normal ones, allowing anomalies to be accurately reconstructed or forecasted and thus diminishing their reconstruction/forecasting error-based anomaly scores. This paper proposes \underline{\textbf{N}}$$\textbf{ormality} \underline{\textbf{C}}$$\textbf{onstraint} \underline{\textbf{L}}$$\textbf{earning} ($\textbf{NCL}$), a lightweight plug-and-play framework that adapts pre-trained TSFMs for accurate anomaly detection without modifying their pre-trained parameters. Our key insight is to constrain the broad pattern space of TSFMs to the normal structure of a target time series, preventing their broad modeling capability from obscuring abnormal deviations. Specifically, NCL constructs a compact normality subspace from a few normal patch features and adaptively steers each patch feature toward normality within this subspace, guided by contrastive constraints that form compact and discriminative normality manifolds. The calibrated features are aggregated to reinforce normal components and fused with the original TSFM output, amplifying the discrepancy between normal and abnormal observations for the reconstruction/forecasting error-based anomaly scoring. Extensive experiments across diverse TSFM families and benchmarks show that NCL consistently improves anomaly detection performance, providing a generalizable framework for adapting TSFMs to anomaly detection.