L1 Regularization Paths in Linear Models by Parametric Gaussian Message Passing

Sparse precision matrix estimation provides an interpretable and computationally efficient framework for modeling conditional dependencies in high-dimensional, low-sample-size data. A recurring challenge is appropriately selecting the regularization parameter that controls estimator sparsity and strikes a balance between underfitting and overfitting. We propose a closed-form, matrix-valued regularization parameter derived from the sampling distribution of the first-order optimality conditions of the $\ell_1$-regularized Gaussian maximum-likelihood estimator. By prescribing the probability that each nonzero entry of the estimator satisfies its optimality condition under resampling, we eliminate the need for cross-validation. The resulting regularization parameter is shown to attain asymptotic scaling properties that, under standard conditions, provide consistency and sparsistency of the estimator. On synthetic Gaussian and non-Gaussian datasets, as well as real-world gene microarray and neuroimaging applications, the proposed approach achieves estimation accuracy comparable to cross-validation, delivers superior support recovery, and reduces runtime by several orders of magnitude.

We present a class of algorithms for state estimation in nonlinear, non-Gaussian state-space models. Our approach is based on a variational Lagrangian formulation that casts Bayesian inference as a sequence of entropic trust-region updates subject to dynamic consistency constraints. This framework gives rise to a family of forward-backward algorithms whose structure is determined by the chosen factorization of the variational posterior. By focusing on Gauss--Markov approximations, we derive recursive schemes with favorable computational complexity. For general nonlinear, non-Gaussian models, we close the recursions using generalized statistical linear regression and Fourier--Hermite moment matching.

A central aim of unsupervised learning is to uncover latent factors that explain dependencies among observations. Probabilistic models typically achieve this by introducing multiple latent variables linked through a graph of conditional relationships, with distributional parameters and their dependence learnt from data. Learning relies either on distributional choices that allow tractable belief propagation, or on approximations that scale poorly with model size and complexity. We build on the recently developed recognition-parametrised modelling paradigm to propose an alternative approach: RAMP, a method that implicitly defines latent structure by learning a flexible, nonlinear, amortised message-passing framework. We show that RAMP enables efficient likelihood-based recovery of latent-variable distributions within expressive nonlinear models acting on complex high-dimensional data.