When Graph Structure Becomes a Liability: A Critical Re-Evaluation of Graph Neural Networks for Bitcoin Fraud Detection under Temporal Distribution Shift

Graph-based fraud detection is essential for safeguarding large-scale transaction systems, where undetected anomalies may lead to substantial financial losses and security risks. Real-world fraud graphs pose two coupled challenges: sparse and imbalanced supervision, where verified fraudulent labels are scarce and heavily skewed toward benign accounts, and representation dilution, where spatial message passing may oversmooth camouflaged anomalies while spectral filters may suppress fraud-relevant mid- and high-frequency irregularities. To address these challenges, we propose ADC-GNN, short for Attention-guided Diffusion-Contrastive Graph Neural Network, a unified framework that combines diffusion-guided feature augmentation, contrastive representation learning, and multi-hop spectral attention for few-shot graph fraud detection. The diffusion component is formulated as a feature-space denoising augmentation mechanism rather than a full topology-generative graph diffusion model: it constructs noise-perturbed node-feature views under a cosine schedule and uses contrastive learning to stabilize node representations across perturbations. The spectral attention module further adaptively emphasizes fraud-relevant hop-level and relation-level cues. We evaluate ADC-GNN primarily on three public benchmarks and additionally report a proprietary real-world telecom transaction dataset with approximately 60,000 records as a private case study. Under the 1% training setting, ADC-GNN achieves consistent improvements over original graph fraud baselines and four protocol-consistent recent graph anomaly/fraud baselines on the public benchmarks. Additional analyses on split stability, training ratios, oversampling alternatives, module-level ablations, diffusion schedules, and runtime and memory-consumption comparisons further characterize the effective operating regime of ADC-GNN.

Ever-evolving transaction patterns have significantly hindered anomaly detection on emerging cryptocurrency blockchains due to the vast number of addresses and diverse anomalous behaviors. Recently, advanced Graph Anomaly Detection (GAD) approaches applied to blockchains have faced two critical challenges: \textit{adversarial pattern evolution by malicious actors} and \textit{the out-of-distribution (OOD) problem caused by varied transaction semantics on blockchains}. To address these challenges, we propose a novel framework termed \textbf{TE}mporal \textbf{M}otif-aware \textbf{G}raph \textbf{T}est-\textbf{T}ime \textbf{A}daptation (\textbf{TEMG-TTA}). First, we comprehensively capture the 3-node temporal motif distribution of each active address using an efficient computational mechanism, enabling downstream temporal motif-aware graph learning. Second, we design a simple yet effective test-time adaptation strategy to facilitate the sharing of common patterns between training and testing graphs. Extensive experiments on 5 real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed \textbf{TEMG-TTA} outperforms \textit{state-of-the-art} GAD approaches by an average of 54.88%. A further case study on interpretable motif patterns reveals that \textbf{TEMG-TTA} explicitly characterizes the complex transaction patterns of anomalous addresses, thereby verifying the effectiveness of our technical designs. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/LuoXishuang0712/TEMG-TTA/.

Bitcoin's pseudonymous nature makes it challenging to analyze user-level activity, since a single user may control multiple identifiers (addresses). Existing heuristic-based methods attempt to identify addresses belonging to the same user, but they often produce flat cluster assignments with limited modularity and are prone to errors such as merging different users together. In this work, we propose a method for refining heuristic-obtained clusters by grounding our clustering on contrastive embeddings yielded by graph neural networks. Our contributions are threefold: (i) we release a publicly available dataset of Bitcoin transaction graphs containing a substantial number of clusters; (ii) we propose a methodology for learning address embeddings consistent with heuristics, and back it up with theoretical guiding intuitions; (iii) through hierarchical clustering, we enable a finer analysis of heuristic clusters and provide a quantitative criterion for flagging suspicious merges.