Adaptive Conformal Anomaly Detection with Time Series Foundation Models for Signal Monitoring
Authors: Natalia Martinez Gil, Fearghal O'Donncha, Wesley M. Gifford, Nianjun Zhou, Dhaval C. Patel, Roman Vaculin
Organizations: IBM Research
Abstract
We propose a post-hoc adaptive conformal anomaly detection method for monitoring time series that leverages predictions from pre-trained foundation models without requiring additional fine-tuning. Our method yields an interpretable anomaly score directly interpretable as a false alarm rate (p-value), facilitating transparent and actionable decision-making. It employs weighted quantile conformal prediction bounds and adaptively learns optimal weighting parameters from past predictions, enabling calibration under distribution shifts and stable false alarm control, while preserving out-of-sample guarantees. As a model-agnostic solution, it integrates seamlessly with foundation models and supports rapid deployment in resource-constrained environments. This approach addresses key industrial challenges such as limited data availability, lack of training expertise, and the need for immediate inference, while taking advantage of the growing accessibility of time series foundation models. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets show that the proposed approach delivers strong performance, combining simplicity, interpretability, robustness, and adaptivity.
Time series anomaly detection is a crucial task in various domains, including finance, healthcare, and industry. However, existing methods often struggle to generalize across different datasets, especially when anomalies are subtle or context-dependent. To solve this issue, we introduce ChronosAD, a novel architecture for anomaly detection that uses a time series foundation model as a feature extractor. Specifically, it employs a two-stage pipeline: first, it uses the foundation model to extract embeddings for each time series in a zero-shot manner. Then, a custom-developed Temporal Block, composed of Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) and Multi-Head Attention, refines these embeddings to capture temporal dependencies and highlight salient patterns. Unlike previous approaches, our model requires minimal task-specific tuning and demonstrates robust generalization across a wide range of domains, including industrial, medical, cyber-physical, and automotive systems. Extensive experiments on 11 benchmarks show that ChronosAD outperforms existing methods by 4.72% in AUC and 6.60% in AP on average. The source code is available at https://github.com/intelligolabs/ChronosAD.
Uzair Khan, Luigi Capogrosso, Francesco Biondani +4
Multivariate Time Series Anomaly Detection (MTSAD) is essential for reliability and safety in domains such as industrial process monitoring and financial risk management, yet conventional approaches rely on application-specific models that are costly to train and hard to scale. Foundation Models (FMs), pre-trained on broad data with strong zero-shot generalization, have recently become available for univariate time series forecasting, raising the question of whether they can address MTSAD without task-specific training. We investigate the zero-shot application of a univariate forecasting FM, TimesFM, to industrial MTSAD on the Secure Water Treatment (SWaT) benchmark, evaluating two strategies: treating the FM as a per-feature forecaster with thresholded prediction errors, and as an embedder whose intermediate representations feed standard outlier detectors. Neither of our proposed setups is competitive with established baselines; embeddings reveal only partial separation between normal and anomalous segments, insufficient for reliable detection. The cause is that the FM is too effective at capturing temporal dynamics, yielding low error even within fully anomalous windows, so persistent anomalies become indistinguishable from normal behavior. However, these observations yield valuable insights: the error peaks at anomaly boundaries, indicating FMs reliably detect distribution changes. We conclude that the proposed naive zero-shot FMs are unsuitable for MTSAD but promising for change-point detection.
Although recent studies on time-series anomaly detection have increasingly adopted ever-larger neural network architectures such as transformers and foundation models, they incur high computational costs and memory usage, making them impractical for real-time and resource-constrained scenarios. Moreover, they often fail to demonstrate significant performance gains over simpler methods under rigorous evaluation protocols. In this study, we propose Patch-based representation learning for time-series Anomaly detection (PaAno), a lightweight yet effective method for fast and efficient time-series anomaly detection. PaAno extracts short temporal patches from time-series training data and uses a 1D convolutional neural network to embed each patch into a vector representation. The model is trained using a combination of triplet loss and pretext loss to ensure the embeddings capture informative temporal patterns from input patches. During inference, the anomaly score at each time step is computed by comparing the embeddings of its surrounding patches to those of normal patches extracted from the training time-series. Evaluated on the TSB-AD benchmark, PaAno achieved state-of-the-art performance, significantly outperforming existing methods, including those based on heavy architectures, on both univariate and multivariate time-series anomaly detection across various range-wise and point-wise performance measures.