Revealing Geography-Driven Signals in Zone-Level Claim Frequency Models: An Empirical Study using Environmental and Visual Predictors
Authors: Sherly Alfonso-Sánchez, Cristián Bravo, Kristina G. Stankova
Organizations: Department of Statistical and Actuarial Sciences, Western University, 1151 Richmond Street, London, Ontario, N6A 5B7, Canada. · Departamento de Matem´aticas, Universidad Nacional de Colombia. Ave Cra 30 #45-03, Edificio 404. Bogot´a, Colombia.
Abstract
Geographic context is often consider relevant to motor insurance risk, yet public actuarial datasets provide limited location identifiers, constraining how this information can be incorporated and evaluated in claim-frequency models. This study examines how geographic information from alternative data sources can be incorporated into actuarial models for Motor Third Party Liability (MTPL) claim prediction under such constraints. Using the BeMTPL97 dataset, we adopt a zone-level modeling framework and evaluate predictive performance on unseen postcodes. Geographic information is introduced through two channels: environmental indicators from OpenStreetMap and CORINE Land Cover, and orthoimagery released by the Belgian National Geographic Institute for academic use. We evaluate the predictive contribution of coordinates, environmental features, and image embeddings across three baseline models: generalized linear models (GLMs), regularized GLMs, and gradient-boosted trees, while raw imagery is modeled using convolutional neural networks. Our results show that augmenting actuarial variables with constructed geographic information improves accuracy. Across experiments, both linear and tree-based models benefit most from combining coordinates with environmental features extracted at 5 km scale, while smaller neighborhoods also improve baseline specifications. Generally, image embeddings do not improve performance when environmental features are available; however, when such features are absent, pretrained vision-transformer embeddings enhance accuracy and stability for regularized GLMs. Our results show that the predictive value of geographic information in zone-level MTPL frequency models depends less on model complexity than on how geography is represented, and illustrate that geographic context can be incorporated despite limited individual-level spatial information.
Modelling claim frequency and severity for non-life insurance pricing predominantly relies on generalised linear models, with gradient-boosted machines as the leading machine learning alternative. Tabular foundation models (TFMs) present a fundamentally different inference paradigm. By pre-training on large collections of synthetic datasets, TFMs enable inference on new data through in-context learning, without any dataset-specific fitting or hyperparameter tuning. This paper presents a first empirical evaluation of TabPFN for motor insurance pricing, benchmarking it against GLM and XGBoost on two publicly available MTPL datasets. Our results show that TabPFN does not consistently outperform established baselines, exhibits substantially longer inference times, and is sensitive to the size of the in-context training set. While tabular foundation models represent a promising direction, particularly in data-scarce settings, their current performance does not offer a viable replacement for established actuarial methods.
We present OSMGraphCLIP, a CLIP-style geospatial representation model that learns global location embeddings from freely available OpenStreetMap (OSM) data. OSMGraphCLIP represents geographic environments as heterogeneous graphs of typed OSM features, preserving the topological and semantic relationships among roads, buildings, land-use regions, and points of interest. A multi-scale graph encoder captures both fine-grained local structure and broader landscape composition, and supervises a spherical-harmonics location encoder through a contrastive alignment objective. We evaluate OSMGraphCLIP across a diverse suite of downstream geospatial regression and classification tasks spanning climate, ecology, socioeconomic indicators, public health, land cover, biodiversity, and wildfire forecasting, and show that structured OSM data alone supports strong global location representations across domains. OSMGraphCLIP matches or exceeds satellite-based baselines on the majority of benchmarks, with the most pronounced advantage on socioeconomic and public-health tasks, where OSM's explicit semantic annotation of the built environment encodes patterns of human activity that satellite pixels can only capture indirectly. On ecological and environmental tasks, the model remains closely competitive with imagery-based methods despite using no Earth observation data. Qualitative analysis confirms that the learned embeddings organize geographic space coherently, recovering biome boundaries, urban gradients, and tropical--temperate distinctions from map topology alone.
Dimitrios Michail, Eleni Saka, Ioannis Giannopoulos +1
Large-scale pretraining on Earth observation imagery has yielded powerful representations of the natural and built environment. However, most existing geospatial foundation models do not directly model the structured socioeconomic covariates typically stored in tabular form. This modality gap limits their ability to capture the complete total environment, which is critical for reasoning about complex environmental, social, and health-related outcomes. In this work, we propose GeoViSTA (Geospatial Vision-Tabular Transformer), a vision-tabular architecture that learns unified geospatial embeddings from co-registered gridded imagery and tabular data. GeoViSTA utilizes bilateral cross-attention to exchange spatial and semantic information across modalities, guided by a geography-aware attention mechanism that aligns continuous image patches with irregular census-tract tokens. We train GeoViSTA with a self-supervised joint masked-autoencoding objective, forcing it to recover missing image patches and tabular rows using local spatial context and cross-modal cues. Empirically, GeoViSTA's unified embeddings improve linear probing performance on high-impact downstream tasks, outperforming baselines in predicting disease-specific mortality and fire hazard frequency across held-out regions. These results demonstrate that jointly modeling the physical environment alongside structured socioeconomic context yields highly transferable representations for holistic geospatial inference.