Institutions for the Post-Scarcity of Judgment

We argue that governance must transition from a normative discipline to an engineering discipline, and we develop a formal framework, inspired by the physics of metamaterials, to make this transition quantitative and testable. Artificial General Intelligence affects civilization primarily by increasing decision velocity while human verification capacity remains bounded. When the cost of validating AI-generated outputs exceeds the expected utility of acting on them, rational agents default to inaction: a stable but catastrophic Nash equilibrium we term the Freezing Equilibrium. Drawing on metamaterials, where emergent macro-properties arise from designed microstructure, we develop a phenomenological constitutive law for institutional coordination: $R_{\mathrm{eff}} = β\cdot (1-ρ) \cdot (1-τ) \cdot (1-γρτ)$, where $β$ is the decision branching factor, $ρ$ is provenance fidelity, $τ$ is the verification rate, and $γ\in [0,1]$ captures correlated-detection synergy between provenance and verification failures. The model predicts a sharp phase transition between self-healing ($R_{\mathrm{eff}} < 1$) and self-destabilizing ($R_{\mathrm{eff}} > 1$) regimes. We introduce a three-class provenance taxonomy: cryptographic, institutional, and context binding, and derive four falsifiable hypotheses with a proposed 12-week stepped-wedge cluster-randomized trial in government grant review panels. The framework bridges AI alignment theory and institutional design.

As AI systems enter institutional workflows, workers must decide whether to delegate task execution to AI and how much effort to invest in verifying AI outputs, while institutions evaluate workers using outcome-based standards that may misalign with workers' private costs. We model delegation and verification as the solution to a rational worker's optimization problem, and define worker quality by evaluating an institution-centered utility (distinct from the worker's objective) at the resulting optimal action. We formally characterize optimal worker workflows and show that AI induces phase transitions, where arbitrarily small differences in verification ability lead to sharply different behaviors. As a result, AI can amplify workers with strong verification reliability while degrading institutional worker quality for others who rationally over-delegate and reduce oversight, even when baseline task success improves and no behavioral biases are present. These results identify a structural mechanism by which AI reshapes institutional worker quality and amplifies quality disparities between workers with different verification reliability.

Generative and agentic AI are reshaping both the production and evaluation of scientific research. These developments are often studied separately, as questions of how AI can produce research and how AI can review it. We argue that this separation misses an increasingly important feature of scholarly publishing: changes on one side alter the incentives, constraints, and behavior of the other. We synthesize 230 scholarly publications and institutional records using a taxonomy of six connected dynamics: production scaling, evaluation automation, evaluation manipulation, defense mechanisms and policy responses, evasion and side effects, and long-horizon ecosystem feedback. The literature shows an emerging progression in which cheaper and faster research production increases pressure on evaluation, AI-mediated evaluation becomes more scalable and repeatable, participants can exploit evaluator regularities, and institutions respond with technical safeguards and policy controls. These responses can in turn induce evasion, redistribute errors and workload, and shape the scholarly records reused by future research and evaluation systems. Evidence is strongest for production and evaluation at scale, reproducible manipulation, and institutional response, while post-policy adaptation and artifact-level long-horizon feedback remain less directly observed. This systems view shifts attention from isolated AI capabilities toward how scholarly actors and AI systems adapt to one another over time.