ProEval: Proactive Failure Discovery and Efficient Performance Estimation for Generative AI Evaluation

Generative AI systems achieve impressive performance on standard benchmarks yet fail to deliver real-world utility, a disconnect we identify across 28 deployment cases spanning education, healthcare, software engineering, and law. We argue that this benchmark utility gap arises from three recurring failures in evaluation practice: proxy displacement, temporal collapse, and distributional concealment. Motivated by these observations, we argue that generative AI evaluation requires a paradigm shift from static benchmark-centered transparency toward stakeholder, goal, and context-conditioned utility transparency grounded in human outcome trajectories. Existing evaluations primarily characterize properties of model outputs, while deployment success depends on whether interaction with AI improves stakeholders' ability to achieve their goals over time. The missing construct is therefore utility: the change in a stakeholder's capability induced through sustained interaction with an AI system within a deployment context. To operationalize this perspective, we propose SCU-GenEval, a four-stage evaluation framework consisting of stakeholder-goal mapping, construct-indicator specification, mechanism modeling, and longitudinal utility measurement. To make these stages practically deployable, we introduce three supporting instruments: structured deployment protocols, context-conditioned user simulators, and persona- and goal-conditioned proxy metrics. We conclude with domain-specific calls to action, arguing that progress in generative AI must be evaluated through measurable improvements in human outcomes rather than benchmark performance alone.

Evaluating generative AI models is a routine, but resource-intensive, process that is conducted over and over again during the course of model development. In this work, we propose Collaborative Evaluation (CollabEval), a simple, effective, and principled method for exploiting dependencies between historical runs of different models on the same tasks to improve statistical efficiency. Specifically, our approach treats model evaluation as a matrix completion problem over an $M \times N$ matrix of evaluation scores, where $M$ is the total number of models and $N$ is the total number of evaluation prompts. We assume that a subset of these $M$ models are targeted for evaluation. For these target models only a small fraction, $p$, of prompts has been annotated with evaluation scores. Leveraging recent results in prediction-powered inference, we build a low-rank approximation of the score matrix, and use the reconstructed values as control variates in a manner that guarantees unbiased estimates of the true evaluation metric mean, in addition to statistically valid confidence intervals. Empirically, across a wide range of datasets, models, and sparsity levels $p$, we find that CollabEval substantially reduces the mean confidence interval size, and the mean squared error of the point estimate, compared to baseline methods at the same annotation budget.

Auditing the fine-tunes of open-weight generative models for harmful specialization has become a new governance challenge for model hosting platforms. The standard toolkit, generative evaluation via curated prompts or red-teaming, does not scale to platform-level auditing and breaks down entirely for domains like CSAM where generation is legally constrained. This motivates the Evaluation without Generation problem: assessing model capabilities without producing outputs. We argue that in such settings, capability must be inferred from the model's state, either its parameters or internal representations, rather than its outputs. We introduce Gaussian probing, a method that characterizes how LoRA adaptors perturb a model's internal representations by measuring responses to Gaussian latent ensembles. Unlike raw-weight baselines, Gaussian probing reliably distinguishes benign from harmful specialization without sampling outputs. We demonstrate effectiveness in high-risk domains, including detecting models specialized for child sexual abuse material (CSAM), where output-based evaluation is legally and ethically constrained. Our results show that Gaussian probing provides a scalable non-generative alternative for evaluating high-risk generative systems and remains robust to weight rescaling, a representative adversarial manipulation.