SIEVES: Selective Prediction Generalizes through Visual Evidence Scoring

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) fail at fine-grained visual questions less because they cannot reason than because they never see the evidence: high-resolution images are downsampled before encoding, so the model answers from linguistic priors. The standard remedies are expensive: annotated answers (SFT), hand-engineered verifiers (RLVR), or a large external teacher (on-policy distillation). We ask whether the visual evidence itself can supply the signal for free. We formalize the contrastive evidence gap, the per-token log-likelihood ratio that a model assigns to its own output when conditioned on a question-relevant region versus an irrelevant one, and study it across Qwen2.5-VL-7B, Qwen3-VL-8B, and Qwen3-VL-30B-A3B on V*Bench. Our main positive result is training-free: selecting the candidate crop under which the model's answer distribution is most peaked, using a single-view, label-free criterion, discovers the answer-bearing region with no bounding boxes, training, or labels. It localizes the target 4.4 to 5.1 times better than chance and raises fine-grained accuracy from 70 percent to 85 percent at inference. We further show that the gap is complementary to the model's own confidence. Combining them predicts correctness better than either alone, with AUC up to 0.99, and flags confidently wrong answers, with AUC ranging from 0.97 to 1.00 within the high-confidence subset. All effects concentrate on perception-bottleneck questions and vanish on a global-context control. Finally, we report an honest negative result: converting the same signal into a training method, gated self-distillation (SEG-Distill), does not outperform the base model at pilot scale across three gate designs, while more aggressive gating degrades accuracy. The signal is real, but converting it into training gains remains an open problem.

Recent multimodal large language models (MLLMs) achieve strong performance on visual reasoning benchmarks, yet it remains unclear to what extent such performance reflects reasoning directly grounded in visual evidence. We introduce VisReason, a benchmark for vision-centric reasoning in everyday scenarios where perception and inference are tightly coupled. VisReason contains 1,505 questions across 10 categories spanning perceptual, structural, and conceptual reasoning. Our evaluation shows that VisReason poses a qualitatively different challenge from existing benchmarks, exposing substantial gaps between humans and current MLLMs and revealing limited benefits from test-time reasoning strategies. VisReason offers a focused diagnostic for evaluating vision-centric reasoning beyond language.

Establishing a clear link between model predictions and the visual evidence that supports them is critical for transparency and reliability in multimodal reasoning, yet current multimodal large language model (MLLM) evaluations do not explicitly enforce this alignment. Existing benchmarks assess either textual answer correctness or pixel-level localization in isolation, leaving the coupling of reasoning and grounding an open challenge. We introduce VISTAQA, a comprehensive benchmark for joint evaluation of free-form answer correctness and pixel-level evidence grounding in visual question answering. VISTAQA comprises 1,157 expert-curated samples spanning six task types and six visual domains, ranging from direct perception to compositional and relational reasoning. VISTAQA requires models to not only answer correctly, but to also provide precise segmentation masks that support their answers. It also includes hallucination-aware examples where no valid visual evidence exists. To support this enhanced evaluation, we introduce GROVE, a unified evaluation metric that enforces joint correctness by combining textual accuracy and grounding quality via a per-sample geometric mean, ensuring neither dimension can compensate for deficiencies in the other. Comprehensive experiments across grounding-aware models and hybrid pipelines with general-purpose MLLMs reveal that even the strongest systems achieve limited performance under GROVE, highlighting a substantial gap between answer accuracy and visual evidence alignment.